Search Results - subject_exact:"Endogenes Potential"

Monetary determinants of house prices in the European countries

Shevchuk, Viktor; Kopych, Roman - 2026

Objective: The aim of this article is to investigate monetary policy effects on the house prices for the panel of 12 Central and Eastern European (CEE-12) countries, 12 small European countries (EU-12) and 5 largest European countries plus the UK (EU-6). Research Design & Methods: A...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016061886

The survey-based output gap and input gap

Kamada, Koichiro - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015616966

A simple method for estimating multiple natural rates simultaneously : estimation of Japan's potential output and natural foreign exchange rate

Kamada, Koichiro - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015616967

A robust method to date recessions and compute output gaps : the Portuguese case

Assunção, João; Fernandes, Pedro Afonso - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015332506

Monetary policy and the output gap in DSGE models for small open economies : insights from the Czech Republic

Šestořád, Tomáš; Vlček, Jan; Musil, Karel - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015610401

Potential output pessimism and austerity in the European Union

Kuang, Pei; Mitra, Kaushik - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015471285

Synchronization and similarity between regional and sectoral output gaps in the Polish manufacturing industry

Błażej, Mirosław; Górajski, Mariusz; Ulrichs, Magdalena - 2025

The notion of the output gap is crucial in understanding underlying economic trends. The macroeconomic stabilization policy can only be effective for all sectors or regions of the economy if regional or sectoral output gaps are sufficiently coherent. This study proposes a new microeconometric...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015447269

Output gap assessment through Danmarks Nationalbank's production function framework

Bess, Mikkel; Bock, Theodor Justus; Weissert, … - 2026

The output gap is a key guide for economic policymaking and analysis. It is often used to quantify inflationary pressures and thus plays a central role in Danmarks Nationalbank's assessment of the state of the Danish economy. This paper refines Danmarks Nationalbank's existing production...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015588366

The effects of climate change on a small and open economy : economic and monetary perspectives

Bejarano, Jesús Antonio; Rodriguez-Novoa, Daniela - 2025

This policy note analyses the impacts of climate change on a small and open economy, emphasizing its effect on monetary policy. We use a New-Keynesian model to evaluate short- and long-term effects of transition climate change shocks - a permanent and anticipated shock to total factor...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015449295

PFR Fundamentals : Estimating Potential Fiscal Savings

Herrera, Santiago; Isaka, Hironobu - 2026

This Note describes methods for estimating potential fiscal savings across five spending categories—the wage bill, pension payments, capital spending, purchases of goods and services, and social protection spending. The primary methodology compares a country’s spending levels to specific...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015628247

Potential output in Canada : 2026 assessment

Chernoff, Alex; Hajzler, Christopher; Houle, Stéphanie; … - 2026 - Last updated: May 25, 2026

Growth in potential output is expected to drop from 2.3% in 2025 to 1.2% in 2026 given slowing population growth, US tariffs and trade policy uncertainty. It is then estimated to pick up to an average of 1.5% over 2027-29 as strengthening business and government investment supports trend labour...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015647201

Assessing the ability of output gap estimates to forecast inflation in emerging countries

Ndzama, Nwabisa Florence - 2025

We find that, while different models used to estimate the output gap in five major emerging economies show similar trends over time, they lead to different conclusions about how well the output gap can predict inflation. This suggests that the choice of model can significantly impact the...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015443298

Assessing global potential output growth : April 2026

De Munnik, Daniel; Hess, Kristina; Muiruri, Walter; … - 2026 - Last updated: May 25, 2026

We present the annual update of the Bank of Canada staff estimates for global potential output growth. Growth in global potential output is expected to remain broadly stable over the projection horizon at just above 3%, underpinned by the general strength in trend productivity growth, including...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015647202

Trend-cycle decomposition in the presence of large shocks

Kamber, Güneş; Morley, James C.; Wong, Benjamin - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015556557

Estimación del crecimiento potencial de la economía española : una revisión metodológica

Domínguez Díaz, Rubén; García-Rodríguez, Marta; … - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015672521

A Markov-Switching DSGE model for measuring the output gap in Brazil

Oliveira, Eleonora de; Palma, Andreza Aparecida; … - 2024

The output gap, while inherently unobservable, plays a pivotal role in informing policymakers due to its significant implications for forecasting inflation rates and understanding the mechanisms of monetary policy transmission. Traditional filters frequently employed in estimating the output gap...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015055077

Assessing the impact of demographic composition on productivity

Guénette, Justin-Damien; Shao, Lin - 2025

We examine how demographic factors influence potential output, focusing on how the age distribution of the working-age population and the old-age dependency ratio affect aggregate productivity. Following Feyrer (2007), we emphasize that the contribution to aggregate productivity varies by age...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015323684

Estimating time-varying potential output and NAIRU using a multivariate filter for Türkiye

Gökcü, Mert - 2024

This paper extends the multivariate filter approach for estimating potential output and NAIRU developed for Türkiye by integrating the capacity utilization block into the model. The model gives more negative estimates of the output gap and smaller estimates of NAIRU in recession periods...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014574478

Output gap measurement after Covid for Colombia: lessons from a permanent-transitory approach

Granados, Camilo; Parra-Amado, Daniel - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015326087

Is there hysteresis in potential output estimates?

Roa Rozo, Julián - 2024

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015065953

Generische Tourenpläne

Mumm, Harald - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015326928

Nowcasting the output gap with shadow rates

Dubbert, Tore; Kempa, Bernd - 2024

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015071841

Assessing potential output and the output gap in Australia

Bishop, James; Hua, Jessica; Omidi, Shayan; Zhou, Xuan; … - 2024

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015083608

Indirect inference for the identification of star variables in macroeconomic models

Minford, Patrick; Xu, Yongdeng - 2025

Star variables, such as potential output and the neutral real interest rate, are fundamental to economic policymaking but challenging to identify due to their latent nature. Buncic, Pagan, and Robinson (2023) highlight the difficulty of identifying star variables within short macroeconomic...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015329658

Integrating the social reproduction of labor into macroeconomic theory : unpaid caregiving and productivity in paid production

Setterfield, Mark - 2025

The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the integration of unpaid caregiving in the household into short- and long-term macroeconomic theory and, in particular, the theoretical structure of production on the supply side of the economy. The ambition of the project is to furnish a general...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015417783

Wege aus der Wachstumsschwäche : Analysen Wachstumspotenzial

Grimm, Veronika; Kroeger, Thilo; Ochsner, Christian - 2024

Deutschland erlebt derzeit einen erheblichen Rückgang seines Produktionspotenzials. Wesentliche Ursache ist die demografische Alterung und insbesondere der Eintritt der geburtenstarken Jahrgänge (Baby-Boomer) in den Ruhestand. Das verfügbare Arbeitsvolumen wird darüber hinaus durch niedrige...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014511829

Lagging behind : the hysteresis of austerity

Tafuro, Andrea - 2024

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014519403

Estimating potential non-oil GDP in Azerbaijan

Yusibov, Avaz; Yusifzada, Tural; Ahmadov, Vugar - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015467234

The influence of social, labor and economic potential on the growth of competitiveness of organizations

Salkynbayeva, Fatima; Turekulova, Assiya; Tayauova, … - 2024

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015159356

Estimating Potential Output in Niger : Niger

Amouzou Agbe, Guy Morel Kossivi - 2025

Potential growth in Niger is estimated at around 6 percent with a structurally significant contribution of labor and peaks of growth associated with higher investment in physical capital. Growth in Niger is, however, constrained by weak productivity, limited structural transformation, and...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015452014

Macroeconomic climate : from global economy to national economy

Rădulescu, Andrei - 2024

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015116911

Assessing Climate Change Risks : Potential Output Losses and Gains from Strengthening Resilience, Bahamas

Aligishiev, Zamid - 2025

The Bahamas is highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change, including gradual sea level rise, biodiversity loss, and intensifying hurricanes. Together, these challenges threaten to undermine the country's potential output over the long term by inflicting damages to physical assets and...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015452050

Potential Output in the Kyrgyz Republic : Kyrgyz Republic

Rao, Nasir - 2025

This paper revisits the potential output of the Kyrgyz Republic considering recent structural shifts and external shocks, including the pandemic and the regional conflict. Utilizing a suite of methodologies - production function, state-space models, and statistical filters - it estimates...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015452163

Estimating the output gap in times of COVID-19

Durand, Luigi; Fornero, Jorge - 2024

We extend a standard multivariate filter used to estimate the Output Gap (OG) in Chile to account for large economic shocks, such as those observed during the COVID-19 crisis. We propose two methodological extensions. First, we introduce exogenous supply shocks in the dynamics of potential...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015357923

Monetary policy during negative output gap periods in India in the first quarter of the 21st century

Mundle, Sudipto; Mehta, Madhur - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015459569

Trends and cycles during the COVID-19 pandemic period

Júlio, Paulo; Maria, José R. - 2024

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015189809

Coherence of output gaps in the euro area : the impact of the COVID-19 shock

Haan, Jakob de; Jacobs, Jan; Zijm, Renske - 2024

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015420192

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Coherence of output gaps in the euro area : the impact of the Covid-19 shock

Haan, Jakob de; Jacobs, Jan; Zijm, Renske - 2022

Book / Working Paper

Coherence of Output Gaps in the Euro Area : The Impact of the COVID-19 Shock

Haan, Jakob de; Jacobs, Jan; Zijm, Renske - 2022

Book / Working Paper

The economic footprint of natural disasters: demand-side or supply-side forces?

Pozo, Jorge; Rojas, Youel - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015568009

Potential Growth and Migration : Republic of Lithuania

Boer, Lukas - 2025

Recent immigrants have been successfully absorbed into the Lithuanian labor market and legislative amendments have enabled easier migration for high-skilled workers despite the reduction of non-EU workers quota in 2025. The analysis in this note shows immigration can play a role in mitigating...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015612950

Estimating euro area output gap dynamics : evidence from the updated Area-Wide Model Database

İpek, Mahmut S.; Kısacıkoğlu, Burçin - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015583589

Show one more version 1

Estimating euro area output gap dynamics : evidence from the updated area-wide model database

İpek, Mahmut Sefa; Kısacıkoğlu, Burçin - 2025

Book / Working Paper

Can government procurement improve capacity utilization in enterprises? : evidence from China

Li, Xiaoping; Yan, Muci; Ren, Xiaohang; … - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015634988

Potential Growth and Productivity in the Caribbean

Amundsen, Alexander - 2025

Medium-term growth prospects of Caribbean countries have weakened in recent years. We examine these trends by providing new estimates of potential GDP growth for the region. Our findings reveal a broad-based decline over time, driven by declining contributions from human capital and total factor...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015613291

A business conditions real-time measure of output gap deviations

Ilek, Alex; Mazar, Yuval - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015592998

When inflation again matters : do domestic and global output gaps determine inflation in the EU?

Budová, Jana; Šuliková, Veronika; Siničáková, Marianna - 2023

In this paper, we examine whether domestic or global output gap affects inflation in three panels: the European Union, the peripheral countries of the European Union, and the Eurozone. We have also analysed the impact of these variables on inflation in individual countries of the European Union....

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014464251

Will the new European fiscal rules raise the debt-to-GDP ratio? : an analysis of the Italian case

Ciccone, Claudia - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015557480

Nowcasting the output gap for Romania using a mixed-frequency approach

Pleșa, Georgiana - 2023

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014465694

The Impact of interest rate spillover on output gap : a dynamic spatial durbin model

Wuri, Josephine; Hardanti, Yuliana Rini; Laurentius … - 2023

The recent multidimensional crisis has harmed the global economy because countries are currently integrated. In this study, we examine the spillover effect of the United States (US) interest rate on the output gap of ASEAN+3 countries using the dynamic spatial Durbin model from 2010 to 2020....

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014496510

Decomposing the output gap : robust univariate and multivariate Hodrick-Prescott filtering with extreme observations

Hungnes, Håvard - 2025

This paper introduces two methodological improvements to the Hodrick- Prescott (HP) filter for decomposing GDP into trend and cycle components. First, we propose a robust univariate filter that accounts for extreme observations - such as the COVID-19 pandemic - by treating them as additive...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015557748

Output gap measurement : a production function approach

Rehman, Muhammad; Bukhari, Syed Kalim Hyder; Hussain, Fayyaz - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015519573

Impact of output gap, COVID-19, and governance quality on fiscal space in Sub-Saharan Africa

Katuka, Blessing; Mudzingiri, Calvin - 2023

This study examined the determinants of fiscal space within the Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) region, utilising a panel of 33 countries from 2005 to 2021. The paper applied the panel threshold, difference, and system generalised method of moments (GMM) regression techniques. The empirical results...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014449936