Pakistan has been in severe energy crises since the year 2004. Major reasons behind energy crises are lack of use of modeling tools in power planning and policy development, dependence on imported energy sources and poor governance. In this paper, electricity demand forecasting for Pakistan up...

In this paper, we study the predictive power of electricity consumption data for regional economic activity. Using unique weekly and monthly electricity consumption data for the second-largest German state, the Free State of Bavaria, we conduct a pseudo out-of-sample forecasting experiment for...

Wind power forecasting is a field characterised by sudden weather-related events, turbine failures and constraints imposed by the electricity grid. Nowadays, different energy markets add the extra challenge of requiring predictions at the minute level a day forward for bidding-processes. This is...

Reaching climate stabilisation targets requires strengthening the efforts to decrease greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions across all final energy uses. The European Union (EU) and United Kingdom (UK) have decided to become the first climate neutral economic bloc by 2050, with ambitious 2030’s GHG...

Electricity consumption is China's main energy consumption and an important indicator of economic performance. Forecasting electricity consumption plays an increasingly important role in economic development. In order to solve this problem, a fractional order discrete Verhulst model was proposed...

This paper builds and implements multifactor stochastic volatility models for the international oil/energy markets (Brent oil and WTI oil) for the period 2011-2021. The main objective is to make step ahead volatility predictions for the front month contracts followed by an implication discussion...

Long-term energy demand forecasting is crucial for any country, in particular for developing countries with rapid developments of energy needs. This study focuses on Ethiopia, a country with a highly increasing energy demand resulting mainly from the currently low share of electricity access,...

Forecasting plays an essential role in energy economics. With new challenges and use cases in the energy system, forecasts have to meet more complex requirements, such as increasing temporal and spatial resolution of data. The concept of machine learning can meet these requirements by providing...

The global energy market is going through the unprecedented change. Ability to identify what driving forces will be transforming the markets in coming decades and shape the future of energy is a key for policymakers and industry in developing better working strategies. At the same time, the...

Although China attempts to present itself as a leader of the fight against climate change – and, in some aspects, is taking initiative in this respect – through the Belt and Road Initiative the country has lent support to many ‘dirty’ projects in the energy infrastructure sector. This is...

This paper outlines a method to forecast electricity generation (Gigawatt hours, GWh). The in-sample data set consists of yearly electricity generation (GWh) by OECD countries for the period 1999 to 2017. The out-sample period consists of electricity generation for the year 2018....

Increasingly volatile and distributed energy production challenge traditional mechanisms to manage grid loads and price energy. Local energy markets (LEMs) may be a response to those challenges as they can balance energy production and consumption locally and may lower energy costs for...

New research from the ESRI analyses how the COVID-19 crisis will impact upon the Irish economy and environment. It finds that Irish GDP is expected to decrease by around 13 per cent in 2020 as a result of the economic disruptions caused by the COVID-19 crisis. From an environmental perspective,...

Angesichts der wachsenden klimapolitischen Herausforderungen streben mittlerweile viele Länder Europas bis zum Jahr 2050 eine Dekarbonisierung an, das heißt den Ausstieg aus der Nutzung fossiler Energieträger. Vor diesem Hintergrund präsentiert dieser Beitrag Prognosen des Energiebedarfs und...

This paper evaluates alternative indicators of global economic activity and other market fundamentals in terms of their usefulness for forecasting real oil prices and global petroleum consumption. We find that world industrial production is one of the most useful indicators that has been...