Search Results - subject_exact:"Entscheidung bei Unsicherheit"

Narrow search

Collective decisions under uncertainty : efficiency, ex-ante fairness, and normalization

Kurata, Leo; Nakamura, Kensei - 2026 - Shared: January 15, 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015564571

Compressed beliefs

Zihlmann, Christian - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015613884

Consistency in collective decision-making under uncertainty : an axiomatic approach

Gonzalez, Stéphane; Huynh, Le-Nhat-Linh - 2026 - Version of February 3, 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015614301

Disasters, ambiguity, and crash betas

Meyerheim, Gerrit - 2026 - Original Version: October 2025, This Version: March 2026

This paper develops a tractable consumption-based asset-pricing model in an i.i.d. economy that combines rare consumption disasters with ambiguity aversion implemented as a one-period entropic tilt under CRRA utility. Closed-form expressions for the risk-free rate, equity return moments, and the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015614347

Decision rules in choice under risk

Seror, Avner - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015614357

Behavioral attenuation

Enke, Benjamin; Graeber, Thomas; Oprea, Ryan; Yang, Jeffrey - 2026

We report the results of over 30 experiments to study the elasticity of economic decisions with respect to fundamentals. Our experiments cover a broad range of domains, from choice and valuation to belief formation, from strategic games to generic optimization problems, involving investment,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015614359

Mathematical foundations of health economics : Arrow, Garber, and the economics of medical uncertainty

Ryłow, Jakub - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015616232

Ambiguity-averse aggregation under heterogeneous beliefs

Norman, Thomas W. L. - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015594827

Fat-tailed distribution under the smooth ambiguity model

Osei, Prince - 2026

We study the ambiguity-adjusted return distribution induced by an investor with smooth ambiguity preferences 'a la Klibano! et al. (2005), who faces uncertainty about the variance of asset returns. The variance uncertainty is modeled using a gamma distribution, a second-order prior over the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015594918

Multi-criteria ordinal hierarchical classification to improve energy investment decisions

Diaz Robles, Raymundo; Granados Montelongo, Juan Antonio; … - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015620384

Monetary policy under high uncertainty : the option value of waiting

Wang, Haobin; Allen Ng - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015624533

Effects of price path shapes and decision frames on emotions and investment decisions : experimental evidence

Cordes, Henning; Decke, Philipp; Nolte, Sven; … - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015626639

Subjective uncertainty and the marginal propensity to consume

Koşar, Gizem; Melcangi, Davide - 2026

Earnings uncertainty is central to most heterogeneous-household models. Yet, there is little evidence on how subjective uncertainty, the uncertainty individuals actually perceive, is related to consumption behavior. Using unique data from the Survey of Consumer Expectations, we show that the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015638547

Show one more version 1

Subjective uncertainty and the marginal propensity to consume

Koşar, Gizem; Melcangi, Davide - 2025

Book / Working Paper

Bayesian Panel Variable Selection under model uncertainty for high-dimensional data

Pathairat Pastpipatkul; Htwe Ko - 2026

Selecting the relevant covariates in high-dimensional panel data remains a central challenge in applied econometrics. Conventional fixed effects and random effects models are not designed for systematic variable selection under model uncertainty. In addition, many existing models such as LASSO...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015640470

A risk-averse multi-objective analytics framework for green supply chain design under uncertainty

Ghorbani, Shahryar; Nematian, Javad; Yıldırım, Figen; … - 2026

In response to increasing concerns about environmental issues, businesses, and industries face pressure to mitigate their negative environmental impacts. Consequently, firms must reevaluate their operations to align with environmental standards. To address both economic and environmental...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015640953

The value of reliable statistics

Bloom, Nicholas; Groshen, Erica L.; Hobbs, Duncan R.; … - 2026

On August 1, 2025, President Trump fired the head of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and claimed that the agency's data were "rigged." In the aftermath, measures of economic policy uncertainty rose sharply, consistent with the idea that reduced trust in official data increases...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015641440

Protocolo del "momento basta" : arquitectura del cierre deliberativo en la alta dirección

Del Vecchio, Fernando - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015644056

How uncertainty shapes electricity storage decisions : dispatch policies and capacity portfolios under renewable drought risk

Keske, Cem; Steffen, Bjarne; Parsons, John E. - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015655690

Effectuation in action : how pre-commitments drive international performance

Alinasab, Jamshid; Mather, Damien; Parackal, Mathew; … - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015647312

Equilibrium in the insurance chain under risk and ambiguity aversion

Lima, Luis Adrián - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015650822

Decision-making when computational complexity drives uncertainty

Bossaerts, Peter L. - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015652504

Transformationsrisiken messbar machen : technologische, kommerzielle und systemische Reife als Gradmesser für Transformationsrisiken und -unsicherheiten

Fußhöller, Lukas; Küper, Malte - 2026 - Stand: April 2026

Die Dekarbonisierung der deutschen Industrie erfordert grundlegende Veränderungen der Produktionsprozesse. Viele der dafür benötigten Technologien sind bislang jedoch noch nicht im industriellen Maßstab erprobt und mit erheblichen technologischen, infrastrukturellen und marktbezogenen...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015632046

Ambiguity about volatility in the commodity futures market

Verousis, Thanos; Wang, Kai; Zhou, Zhiping - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015632674

Identifying scenarios of interest under deep uncertainty

Kwakkel, Jan; Auping, Willem L.; End, Jan-Willem van den - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015632827

Navigating the uncertainty : unveiling the impact of trade policy uncertainty on GVC ascent in Chinese listed companies

Wu, Shiyi; Niu, Rui - 2026

This study is based on real options theory and uses a sample of Chinese listed companies from 2000 to 2016 to investigate the dynamic process and mechanisms by which trade policy uncertainty affects the upgrading of enterprises within the global value chain (GVC). The article finds that trade...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015633597

ROBIST : robust optimization by iterative scenario sampling and statistical testing

Starreveld, Justin; Jin, Guanyu; Hertog, Dirk den; … - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015534326

Mitigating choice model ambiguity : a consensus framework and its application to assortment optimization

Attila, Öykü Naz; Jena, Sanjay Dominik; Rei, Walter - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015543024

An intuitionistic fuzzy analytical hierarchy process-based model for environmentally sustainable development in maritime logistics and supply chains

Muhamad Safuan Shamshol Bahri; Shariff, S. Sarifah Radiah; … - 2026

Backgrounds: Ports are critical nodes in global logistics and supply chains, yet their operations generate substantial environmental and social externalities. Existing evaluation frameworks have limited capability to address uncertainty, ambiguity, and expert hesitation. Moreover, prior studies...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015666828

Sleeping beauty loses her magic psychic powers

Cremin, John - 2026 - Latest version: June 25, 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015671038

A note on strategic ambiguity and coalition structure in electoral competition

Sivapragassam, Aswin - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015671084

The impact of uncertainty shocks on workforce composition

Caggese, Andrea; Cuñat, Vicente; Metzger, Daniel - 2026 - This draft: January 20, 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015671509

Forecasting with uncertain persistence

Flynn, Joel P.; Meinert, Maksim; Sastry, Karthik A. - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015672844

The economics of professional decision-making : can artificial intelligence reduce decision uncertainty?

MacLeod, William Bentley - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015617092

A robust decision-making approach to evaluating state support for nuclear programmes under uncertainty : a UK case study

Mangin, Jérémy; Bluck, Michael J.; Darch, Geoff; … - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015546773

Transmission benefits and cost allocation under ambiguity

Shu, Han; Mays, Jacob - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015546928

High bar for change : uncertainty source preferences in the choice of adapting agricultural practices

Moure, Mar; Bredahl Jacobsen, Jette - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015546932

Uncertainty and investments in data and R&D

Mohades, Siavash; Savona, Maria - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015509095

Show one more version 1

Uncertainty and investments in data and R&D

Mohades, Siavash; Savona, Maria - 2025

Book / Working Paper

Source theory : a tractable and positive ambiguity theory

Baillon, Aurélien; Bleichrodt, Han; Li, Chen; Wakker, … - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015547526

A survey of contextual optimization methods for decision-making under uncertainty

Sadana, Utsav; Chenreddy, Abhilash; Delage, Erick; … - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015085172

Show one more version 1

A survey of contextual optimization methods for decision making under uncertainty

Sadana, Utsav; Chenreddy, Abhilash; Delage, Erick; … - 2023

Book / Working Paper

Optimal payoffs under smooth ambiguity

Chen, An; Vanduffel, Steven; Wilke, Morten - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015085373

Strategic ambiguity in global games

Ui, Takashi - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015154666

Optimizing sequential decision-making under risk : strategic allocation with switching penalties

Malekipirbazari, Milad - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015094944

Neo-Schumpeterian growth theory : missing entrepreneurs results in incomplete policy advice

Henrekson, Magnus; Johansson, Dan - 2025

The neo-Schumpeterian growth models, which appeared in the early 1990s, have ostensibly reintroduced the entrepreneur into mainstream growth theory. However, we show that by ignoring genuine uncertainty and by assuming that profits follow an objectively true and ex ante known probability...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015175732

Show 2 more versions 2

Neo-Schumpeterian growth theory : missing entrepreneurs results in incomplete policy advice

Henrekson, Magnus; Johansson, Dan - 2025

Book / Working Paper

Neo-Schumpeterian growth theory : missing entrepreneurs results in incomplete policy advice

Henrekson, Magnus; Johansson, Dan - 2024

Book / Working Paper

Subjective uncertainty and the marginal propensity to consume

Kosar, Gizem; Melcangi, Davide - 2025

Earnings uncertainty is central to most heterogeneous-household models. Yet, there is surprisingly little evidence on how subjective uncertainty is related to consumption behavior. Using unique data from the Survey of Consumer Expectations, we show that the marginal propensity to consume (MPC)...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015371804

Framing biases in plea bargaining decisions : insights from the psychology of medical decision making

Wolfe, Christopher R. - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015372186

Uncertainty, skewness, and the business cycle through the MIDAS lens

Castelnuovo, Efrem; Mori, Lorenzo - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015372718

Position uncertainty in a prisoner's dilemma game : an experiment

Anwar, Chowdhury Mohammad Sakib; Georgalos, Konstantinos; … - 2025

Gallice and Monzón (2019) present a natural environment that sustains full cooperation in one-shot social dilemmas among a finite number of self-interested agents. They demonstrate that in a sequential public goods game, where agents lack knowledge of their position in the sequence but can...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015375388

Hoping for the best while preparing for the worst in the face of uncertainty : a new typemof incomplete preferences

Bardier, Pierre; Bach Dong Xuan; Nguyen, Van-Quy - 2025

We propose and axiomatize a new model of incomplete preferences under uncertainty, which we call hope-and-prepare preferences. An act is considered more desirable than another when, and only when, both an optimistic evaluation, computed as the welfare level attained in a best-case scenario, and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015210350

Reducing strategic uncertainty increases group protection in collective risk social dilemmas

Steimanis, Ivo; Struwe, Natalie; Benda, Julian; Blanco, … - 2025 - This version: February 11, 2025

Interrelated global crises - climate change, pandemics, loss of ecosystem services and biodiversity - pose risks that demand collective solutions. Uncertainty about others' behavior, coupled with the dependence on some to take collective efforts to mitigate risks for all (e.g. conservation of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015271363

Belief-neutral efficiency in financial markets

Beißner, Patrick; Riedel, Frank - 2025

Heterogeneous beliefs among market participants can lead to questionable speculative trading that goes beyond any risk-sharing motives. We demonstrate that such unwarranted betting behavior in market equilibrium can be mitigated by introducing nonlinear pricing for ambiguous contracts, without...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015272951