The stability of global energy markets is fundamental to effective energy strategy, influencing national policy and corporate investment decisions. Extreme volatility, such as during the COVID-19 pandemic, exposes the limitations of conventional risk assessment tools and undermines strategic...

Amidst global decarbonization dynamics, Artificial Intelligence (AI), the Digital economy, and energy prices are shaping the energy transition in a way that has never been more critical. Using MMQR and IVQR, this research investigates the effects of AI, research and development (R&D), and energy...

This paper studies the macroeconomic effects of global copper supply shocks. We identify exogenous disruptions to copper supply using a Bayesian structural VAR of the world copper market that combines sign and narrative restrictions. We then trace the international transmission of the identified...

The Euro Area experienced historically high inflation in 2022, with energy prices playing a central role. This paper examines the joint impact of various energy price shocks on inflation in the Euro Area, with a focus on the period encompassing the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia–Ukraine war....

This paper estimates the pass-through of world oil price innovations to Philippine fuel prices and headline CPI, and decomposes total CPI pass-through into a fuelbasket component and a residual non-fuel component. Using a recursive SVAR and 25 years of monthly Department of Energy pump price...

We study optimal monetary and exchange rate policy in a small open economy facing oil price shocks. In a model with segmented financial markets that generate endogenous UIP deviations, the first-best allocation is achieved through a combination of interest rate policy and foreign exchange...

Recent studies have focused on the detrimental effects of global economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on firm profitability. Nevertheless, none of these studies has focused on a developing economy like Nigeria. To understand this, the study conducted a host of regression analyses using the Driscoll...

This paper examines the impact on crude oil prices of the trade tariffs announced by the Trump administration on 2 April 2025 ("Liberation Day"). More specifically, it uses fractional integration methods to analyse daily data on WTI, Brent and Murban oil prices spanning the period from 3 June...

We quantify the contribution of Venezuela’s oil sector collapse to changes in global oil market responsiveness after 2007. We extend the multi-country structural model of Baumeister and Hamilton (2024) by modeling Venezuela explicitly and constructing a counterfactual production path that...

This study examines the short-run dynamics and long-run determinants of bilateral trade between Saudi Arabia (KSA) and Jordan during the period of 1995-2024 using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach. Employing a country-pair time series framework, the analysis...

Given the context of the COVID-19 pandemic disrupting global logistics, coupled with the Russia-Ukraine war causing global energy price changes, examining both the linear and nonlinear associations between shipping cost and oil price is crucial in a global context. This study empirically...

This study examines the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on crude oil tail risk using the Conditional Autoregressive Value at Risk (CAViaR) framework. We analyzed 2364 daily observations of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures spanning 1 January 2015 to 11 December 2023, thereby...

Background: This study revisits whether oil revenue windfalls translate into higher socio-economic welfare in oil-exporting economies and explains why oil price booms often fail to generate sustained gains in real GDP per capita. Methods: Using annual data for ten oil-exporting countries over...

We develop a novel instrumental variable to identify geopolitical oil price shocks arising around significant geopolitical tensions and examine their transmission to the global oil market, key U.S. macroeconomic aggregates, and cross-border spillover effects on other commodity markets, output,...

To reduce Russia's ability to fund its war in Ukraine, Western governments imposed a price ceiling on Russian seaborne oil exports. Policy-makers sought a ceiling level to lower Russia's oil profits without raising excessively the world price buyers pay for oil. Previous analyses have explored...

The inflation rate has shown an upward trend globally, specifically after COVID-19, and the economies of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) are not an exception. A heightened inflation in the modern globalized world is indeed undesirable due to its enormous adverse consequences on all sectors of...

The volatility of oil prices has a considerable impact on the economies of oil-exporting countries, making it critical to understand how price variations affect labour markets and unemployment. This study investigates the distinct role of labour market institutions in moderating the effects of...

This paper presents the first formal comparison of Value at risk (VaR) forecasting performance across various high-frequency volatility models and conventional benchmarks using daily data in the crude oil futures market. Our analysis reveals the following key findings:(1) High-frequency data...

From a long-term perspective little is known about income inequality in Venezuela. This is regrettable as the country offers a unique opportunity to study distributional dynamics in an economy dominated by oil richness since the 1920s amid an accelerated process of structural change amid...

Stability in the global equity market relies on the existence of a favorable macroeconomic environment. This study examines the dynamic responses of these markets to geopolitical risks and oil price shocks from 1979Q2 to 2023Q3 using the global vector autoregressive (GVAR) approach. We introduce...