We discuss the timing and strength of the Fed's reaction to the recent inflation surge within an estimated macroeconomic model where long-run inflation expectations are heterogeneous and can lose their anchoring to the target. The resulting inflation scare worsens the real cost of disinflation....

This paper investigates the determinants of inflation target credibility (ITC) using a unique survey we designed to measure the credibility of the ECB's inflation target. Containing over 200,000 responses from German consumers collected between January 2019 and November 2024, our dataset enables...

This paper examines how expecting to receive an inheritance impacts household savings decisions. Life-cycle consumption models indicate that the expectation of inheriting should reduce current savings plans for forward-thinking consumers. We investigate how inheritance expectations shape savings...

This paper investigates the determinants of inflation target credibility (ITC) using a unique survey we designed to measure the credibility of the ECB's inflation target. Containing over 200,000 responses from German consumers collected between January 2019 and November 2024, our dataset enables...

Using a large, nationally representative survey of US consumers, we estimate a causal 20 percent pass-through from inflation expectations to income growth expectations for the average consumer, with considerable heterogeneity in pass-through associated with sociodemographic factors. The results...

Homeownership rates and holdings of housing wealth differ immensely across countries. We specify and estimate a life cycle model with risky labor income and house prices in which households face a discrete-continuous choice between renting and owning a house, whose sale is subject to transaction...

This paper yields new insights into why similar workers are paid differently by surveying a representative sample of Danish firms and linking responses to administrative data. We find that a substantial minority of firms, about 18 percent, have inaccurate beliefs about their position in the wage...

This paper examines how expecting to receive an inheritance impacts household savings decisions. Life-cycle consumption models indicate that the expectation of inheriting should reduce current savings plans for forward-thinking consumers. We investigate how inheritance expectations shape savings...

How do students' earnings expectations differ by being the first in their family to attend university (FiF) and how do they affect field of study choice? We leverage unique survey and administrative data from a German university to document sizable gaps in expected earnings between FiF and...

Background: Governments face critical decisions regarding road remediation projects, requiring careful economic evaluation, especially in countries like Slovakia where road infrastructure is crucial for attracting foreign investment. These decisions are complex, involving short-term and...

This paper investigates the determinants of inflation target credibility (ITC) using a unique survey we designed to measure the credibility of the ECB's inflation target. Containing over 200,000 responses from German consumers collected between January 2019 and November 2024, our dataset enables...

Homeownership rates and holdings of housing wealth differ immensely across countries. We specify and estimate a life cycle model with risky labor income and house prices in which households face a discrete–continuous choice between renting and owning a house, whose sale is subject to...

Using a customized survey and an information-provision experiment, we establish that loan officers' individual subjective expectations about inflation, GDP growth, and policy rates vary substantially within and across bank types and have a sizable causal effect on credit supply decisions....

Homeownership rates and holdings of housing wealth differ immensely across countries. Using micro data from five economies, we estimate a life-cycle model with illiquid housing in which households face a discrete-continuous choice between renting and owning a house. We use the model to decompose...

How do students’ earnings expectations differ by being the first in their family to attend university (FiF) and how do they affect field of study choice? We leverage unique survey and administrative data from a German university to document sizable gaps in expected earnings between FiF and...

When people choose how to communicate, they must consider whether their audience will be biased in interpreting their messages. This paper experimentally examines how politically-motivated reasoning affects information transmission. Senders are randomly matched with receivers whose political...

This paper examines novel survey evidence on firms’ beliefs about macroeconomic tail risk and their role in investment decisions. In a large survey of German firms, I elicit (i) the subjective probability of a severe macroeconomic downturn and (ii) firms’ exposure to such an event. I...

We introduce and analyze expected balanced uncertain utility (EBUU) theory. A prior and a balanced outcome-set utility characterize an EBUU decision maker. Conditional on a reference or "balancing value," the latter assigns a utility to each outcome-set. The decision maker associates with each...

Using a novel and unique panel dataset of individual-level professional forecasts at short, medium, and very-long horizons, we provide new stylized facts about survey forecasts. We present direct evidence that forecasters use multivariate models in an environment with imperfect information about...

Professional forecasters' long-run inflation expectations overreact to news and exhibit persistent, predictable biases in forecast errors. A model incorporating overconfidence in private information and a persistent expectations bias-which generates persistent forecast errors across most...

We explore the implications of heterogeneous, history-dependent inflation expectations in a general equilibrium setting. We propose an experience-based expectations-augmented Kalman filter to represent consumers' heterogeneous inflation expectations, where heterogeneity arises from an...

Investors' return expectations are pivotal in stock markets, but the reasoning behind these expectations remains a black box for economists. This paper sheds light on economic agents' mental models - their subjective understanding - of the stock market, drawing on surveys with the US general...

Investors' return expectations are pivotal in stock markets, but the reasoning behind these expectations remains a black box for economists. This paper sheds light on economic agents' mental models - their subjective understanding - of the stock market, drawing on surveys with the US general...

We use inflation and income growth expectations from the ECB Consumer Expectations Survey to measure the subjective expected pass-through of inflation to income in the main euro area countries. By aggregating consumers' responses to probabilistic questions, we obtain significantly higher...

Using a randomized information experiment embedded in a representative survey, we study households' economic expectations at onset of the COVID-19 crisis. Our experimental evidence indicates that households are not fully aware of what is happening in the economy shortly after the pandemic...