Anders als die Bundesregierung es anzustreben scheint, ist eine Reform des Stabilitäts- und Wachstumspakts (SWP) nötig. Die Schuldenabbauregel zwingt hochverschuldete Euroländer zu einem zu schnellen und zu wachstumsschädlichen Schuldenabbau. Nur auf die Flexibilität des Pakts zu setzen,...

This article compares the three initial safety nets spanned by the European Union in response to the Covid-19 crisis: SURE, the Pandemic Crisis Support, and the European Guarantee Fund. It compares their design regarding scope, generosity, target groups, implementation, the types of solidarity...

A key element of the European reform agenda is to simplify the EU fiscal governance framework by moving towards a single debt anchor and a single operational indicator as the basis for formulating fiscal targets and assessing compliance. This paper puts forward an in-depth analysis of two...

Anders als die Bundesregierung es anzustreben scheint, ist eine Reform des Stabilitäts- und Wachstumspakts (SWP) nötig. Die Schuldenabbauregel zwingt hochverschuldete Euroländer zu einem zu schnellen und zu wachstumsschädlichen Schuldenabbau. Nur auf die Flexibilität des Pakts zu setzen,...

This paper examines the factors that influence the effectiveness of fiscal governance in the EU through a panel of 19 Eurozone countries for the period 1999-2019 using an OLS method. The results show the positive effects of economic growth, inflation and the change in the general government...

The suspension of the fiscal rules in Europe and the enactment of NGEU provide an opportunity to rethink the inherited budget orthodoxy. The issue at stake is not only of political economy and institutional changes in the EU. It is also of economic analysis and theory. The coronavirus crisis...

Against the background of the European Commission's reform plans of the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) this policy brief uses the macroeconometric multi-country model NiGEM to simulate the macroeconomic implications of the most relevant reform options from 2024 onwards. Next to a return to the...

In this paper, we describe key problems of the current EU’s fiscal framework and offer constructive options for its reform. A comprehensive reassessment of the rules is necessary, as the development of the rules has reached an impasse for both political and technical reasons. In our view,...

Debt levels in the eurozone have reached new record highs. The member countries have tried to cushion the economic consequences of the corona pandemic with a massive increase in government spending. End of 2021 public debt in relation to GDP will approach 100% on average. There are various calls...

This paper examines the impact of budgetary institutions on public finances in the European Union on the basis of a critical survey of the relevant theoretical and empirical literature. In general, the authors find that fiscal institutions (namely fiscal rules) have successfully contributed to...

Die Mitgliedstaaten des Euroraums begegnen mit hohem finanziellem Aufwand den wirtschaftlichen Folgen der Covid-19-Pandemie. Als Reaktion auf diese Ausnahmesituation wurden die Regeln des Stabilitäts- und Wachstumspakts vorläufig außer Kraft gesetzt. Auf Dauer allerdings wird die Wirtschafts-...

Ende November 2020 wurde eine Reform des Europäischen Stabilitätsmechanismus beschlossen, die nicht unterschätzt werden sollte. Im Mittelpunkt steht die Einführung einer staatlichen Letztabsicherung für den europäischen Bankenrettungsfonds ab 2022. Doch auch weitere Änderungen sind...

In this study, we will perform a simulation exercise to investigate whether the use of explicit fiscal rules improves the macroeconomic performance in the economic framework of the European Union (EU), where the fall in income levels occurred very asymmetrically, and this has accentuated the...

This paper begins by discussing the inherent conflict between the simultaneous existence of a single currency for the countries of the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) and the independent fiscal policies of those countries. The Stability and Growth Pact was an attempt to reconcile that...

This paper presents an in-depth review of the proposal by Micossi (2020) and Avgouleas and Micossi (2021) to transfer a substantial share of the sovereigns acquired by the European System of Central Banks (ESCB), both during and before the pandemic, to the European Stability Mechanism (ESM)....

In this paper, we track fiscal authority behaviour in the ten new EU member states (NMS) in the period which immediately preceded their EU accession. We first present basic stylized facts about public budgets of those countries. The paper then analyses reasons which led to periods of fiscal...

The paper analyzes some key policy trade-offs involved in the implementation of the Stability and Growth Pact. Greater procedural flexibility in the Pact`s implementation may improve welfare. Procedural flexibility designates the enforcer`s room to apply judgment on underlying policies and to...

The prevalence of either Ricardian or non-Ricardian fiscal regimes is important both for practical policy reasons and to assess fiscal sustainability, and this is of particular relevance for European Union countries. The purpose of this paper is to assess, with a panel data set, the empirical...

This paper examines whether there is a political budget cycle (PBC) in countries in the euro area. Using a multivariate model for the period 1999-2004 and various election indicators we find strong evidence that the Stability and Growth Pact has not restricted fiscal policy makers in the euro...

The European Union (EU) accepted ten new member states (NMS) in 2004. These countries, mostly former socialist countries, have had to adjust their economic policies to the EU's standards. Perhaps most difficult has proven to be fiscal policy whereby NMS must comply with the Stability and Growth...

In this paper I evaluate the usefulness of a set of fiscal indicators as early-warning-signal tools for annual General Government Net Lending developments for some EMU countries (Belgium, Germany, Spain, France, Italy, The Netherlands, Ireland, Austria, Finland) and an EMU aggregate. The...

This paper examines the link between socio-economic development and fiscal policy. We introduce an indicator for socio-economic development (SEDI) and investigate its relationship with different fiscal variables, using data for the cohesion countries, namely Greece, Portugal, Spain and Ireland...

This paper explores how the Stability and Growth Pact may cope with the future costs of population ageing in the European Union. Clearly, population ageing has forced countries to reform their pension systems, and will continue to do so, both by reducing the generosity of pension arrangements...

Ever since its inception EMU has been subject to controversy. The fiscal policy rules embedded in the Treaty on European Union, and clarified in the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP), are probably the most contentious. The SGP is being accused of being too rigid and of forcing pro-cyclicality in...

The paper proposes a theoretical analysis illustrating some key policy trade-offs involved in the implementation of a rules-based fiscal framework reminiscent of the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP). The analysis offers some insights on the current debate about the SGP. Specifically, greater...

The paper analyses the EU fiscal rules from a political economy perspective and derives some policy lessons. Following a literature survey, the paper stresses the importance of appropriate incentives for rule compliance in an environment where national fiscal sovereignty precludes the option of...

We assess the sustainability of public finances in the EU15 using stationarity and cointegration analysis. Specifically, we use panel unit root tests of the first and second generation allowing in some cases for structural breaks. We also apply modern panel cointegration techniques developed by...

This paper examines the cyclical behaviour of country-level macro-financial variables under EMU. Monetary union strengthened the covariation pattern between the output cycle and the financial cycle, while macro-financial policies at national and area-wide levels were insufficiently...

A repetition of austerity policies of the early 2010s is not consistent with maintaining adequate growth and sovereign debt sustainability in the post-pandemic environment, argue the authors of this CEPS Policy Insight.Likewise, a debt restructuring process with deep haircuts will just upset the...

The European Stability Mechanism (ESM) has been instrumental in safeguarding the financial stability of the Euro area and its Member States. This article looks at the tumultuous process of reforming the ESM. It analyzes the main changes brought about by the draft revised ESM Treaty. These...

We analyse the performance of budgetary and growth forecasts of all stability and convergence programmes submitted by EU member states over the last decade. Differences emerge for the bias in budgetary projections across countries. As a second step we explore whether economic, political and...