This paper investigates the long-horizon predictive variance of an international bond strategy where a U.S. investor holds unhedged positions in constant-maturity long-term foreign bonds funded at domestic short-term interest rates. Using over two centuries of data from major economies, the...

This paper examines the role of currency crash risk in explaining the persistent profitability of carry trades. Focusing on the US Dollar-Turkish Lira market, we construct three forwardlooking measures of crash risk: risk reversals, crash probabilities from option-implied distributions, and jump...

This paper assesses the exchange rate risk exposure of Tunisia's external public debt portfolio using the delta-normal Value at Risk (VaR) approach. Based on daily data from 2004 to 2019, focusing on the main borrowing currencies (the euro, US dollar, and Japanese yen), the study identifies the...

How can a currency achieve more widespread international use? We study the internationalization of the Chinese renminbi (RMB) through the lens of a unique policy experiment in Argentina. In 2023, amid a severe dollar shortage, Argentina expanded a currency swap line with the People's Bank of...

This study proposes a hybrid forecasting model that integrates the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model with a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network to estimate Value at Risk (VaR) in the Rwandan foreign exchange market. The model is designed to capture...

The risks posed by issuing debt denominated in a foreign currency are well understood: if the domestic currency depreciates, the local currency cost of servicing such debt will increase. But what has been the recent experience of developing countries? This paper provides a quantitative...

Geopolitical risk (GPR) and exchange rate dynamics have been examined in this research, utilizing QQR and Wavelet Coherence techniques in the emerging economies of SSA. The study examined how GPR affects exchange rates under varied, bearish, stable conditions in several emerging economies in...

This paper presents some sound practices for foreign-currency risk management in developing countries and outlines instruments for managing sovereign debt portfolio currency exposures. Adoption of a debt management strategy with well-defined targets for foreign exchange risk is a critical...

Local currency borrowers are statistically significantly affected by exchange rate fluctuations due to the bank lending channel. Using microdata on borrowers from Hungary, this study examines the spillover effects of foreign currency loans on local currency borrowers following an unexpected...

This paper investigates the heterogeneous responses of exporters to policy reforms undertaken by the People’s Bank of China to internationalize the Renminbi (RMB). Using detailed customs data from France for the initial years of these reforms (2011-2017), it documents several novel stylized...

The Turkish economy has encountered significant shocks in interest rates and foreign exchange along with global risks in recent years. These shocks had an impact not only on the real sector but also on the banking sector's returns, depending on the ownership structure. This study examines the...

This study evaluates the relationship investor sentiment, exchange rate volatility, net foreign portfolio investment and the country index crash risk. The moderating variable, net foreign portfolio investment, is introduced. While previous crash risk studies typically focus on individual firms,...