This paper provides a new perspective on the exchange rate disconnect puzzle by referring to the expectations building mechanism in foreign exchange markets. We analyze the role of expectations regarding macroeconomic fundamentals for expected exchange rate changes. In doing so, we assess...

We confront the notion that flexible rates insulate a country from external disturbances with new evidence on spillovers from euro-area shocks to neighboring countries. We find that in response to euro-area shocks, spillovers are not smaller, and currency movements not significantly larger, in...

This paper presents an estimation of the Tunisian equilibrium exchange rate based on the Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate approach (BEER). The BEER framework links exchange rates to its fundamentals: Tunisian productivity, partners' productivity, trade openness and terms of trade. We...

This paper proposes an equilibrium theory of nominal exchange rates, which offers a new perspective on various issues in open economy macroeconomics. The nominal exchange rate and portfolio choices are jointly determined in equilibrium, thus providing a new approach to overcoming the...

This paper provides a new perspective on the exchange rate disconnect puzzle by referring to the expectations building mechanism in foreign exchange markets. Therefore, we analyze the role of expectations regarding macroeconomic fundamentals for expected exchange rate changes. In doing so, we...

This paper presents new stylized facts about exchange rates and their relationship with macroeconomic fundamentals. We show that macroeconomic surprises explain a large majority of the variation in nominal exchange rate changes at a quarterly frequency. Using a novel present value decomposition...

In this paper we evaluate the predictive power of the three most popular equilibrium exchange rate concepts: Purchasing Power Parity (PPP), Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER) and the Macroeconomic Balance (MB) approach. We show that there is a clear trade-off between storytelling and...

We propose and estimate a quantitative model of exchange rates in which the participantsin the FX market are intermediaries subject to value-at-risk (VaR) constraints. Higher volatilitytranslates into tighter VaR constraints, and intermediaries require higher returns to holdforeign assets....

We show that the exchange rate may appreciate or depreciate depending on the specific mix of sanctions imposed, even if the underlying equilibrium allocation is the same. Sanctions that limit a country's imports tend to appreciate the country's exchange rate, while sanctions that limit exports...

The literature on exchange rate misalignments is very extensive as well as the literature on exchange rate determinants. To our knowledge, however, no study has analyzed the determinants of exchange rate misalignments. As huge capital inflows have been pouring into emerging countries since the...

From the onset of the euro crisis to the Brexit vote, we have witnessed impressive reductions of current account imbalances in peripheral countries of the euro area. These reductions can be the result of either a compression of internal demand or an improvement in external competitiveness. In...

We study exchange rate determination in a 2-country model where domestic banks create each economy's supply of domestic and foreign currency. The model combines the UIP-based and monetary theories of exchange rate determination, but the latter with a focus on private rather than public money...

This is an essay to show the rigorous connection between the neoclassical theory of trade, i.e. the Heckscher-Ohlin model in the context of General Equilibrium conditions, and the real exchange rate as determined by local and foreign prices in a common currency, i.e. the Purchasing Power Parity...

We study the endogenous choice to accept fiat objects as media of exchange and their implications for nominal exchange rate determination. We consider a two-country environment with two currencies which can be used to settle any transactions. However, currencies can be counterfeited at a fixed...

The level of the (log of) the exchange rate seems to have strong forecasting power for dollar exchange rates against major currencies post-2000 at medium- to long-run horizons of 12-, 36- and 60-months. We find that this is true using conventional asymptotic statistics correcting for serial...

We develop a theory of exchange rate fluctuations arising from financial institutions' demand for dollar liquid assets. Financial flows are unpredictable and may leave banks "scrambling for dollars." Because of settlement frictions in interbank markets, a precautionary demand for dollar reserves...

This paper improves on current treatment of exchange rate variation in quantitative trade models. Exchange rate changes with heterogeneous passthrough to buyers are embedded in the structural gravity model. Quantification on two digit annual bilateral trade data reveals real effects of exchange...

We document five novel facts about Uncovered Interest Parity (UIP) deviations vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar for 34 currencies of advanced economies and emerging markets, using survey data on expected exchange rate. First, the UIP premium co-moves with global risk perception (VIX) for all...

The Mussa (1986) puzzle is the observation of a sharp and simultaneous increase in the volatility of both nominal and real exchange rates following the end of the Bretton Woods System of pegged exchange rates in 1973. It is commonly viewed as a central piece of evidence in favor of monetary...

This paper develops framework to estimate and interpret the factor content of equilibrium real exchange rates. The framework - which builds on Backus, Foresi, and Telmer (2001) and Ang Piazzesi (2003) - respects the restrictions imposed by stochastic discount factors that generate standard, no...

Received wisdom posits that sterilized foreign exchange intervention can be effective by altering the currency composition of assets held by the public. This paper proposes an alternative channel: sterilized intervention may (or may not) have real effects because it changes the net credit...

We examine the Cochrane and Piazzesi (2005, 2008) model in several out-of-sample analyzes. The model's one-factor forecasting structure characterizes the term structures of additional currencies in samples ending in 2003. In post-2003 data one-factor structures again characterize each currency's...

In this paper the author analyzes the behavior of exchange rates expectations for four currencies, by considering a re-calculation and an extension of Resende and Zeidan (Expectations and chaotic dynamics: Empirical evidence on exchange rates, Economics Letters, 2008). Considering Lyapunov...