This paper investigates the impact of exchange rate volatility on exports in Vietnam using quarterly data from the first quarter of 2000 to the fourth quarter of 2014. The paper applies the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to the analysis of level relationships...

We estimate a three-region (DE-REA-RoW) structural macroeconomic model, and we provide a counterfactual on how nominal exchange rate flexibility would have affected the German trade balance (TB) by simulating the shocks of the estimated model under a counterfactual flexible exchange rate regime....

The Portfolio Theory of Inflation (PIT) proposed in this study investigates the role of global financial markets in determining the effectiveness of macroeconomic policy in open and fully financial integrated economies. The PIT adopts a modified version of the portfolio balance approach to...

The analysis of open macroeconomies typically assumes (implicitly or explicitly) that resource allocation decisions are taken by domestic agents. The Portfolio Theory of Inflation (PTI) developed in this study assumes that some critical allocation decisions are taken by global investors and...

The purpose of this paper is to verify the long-range correlation between the stock markets of the largest economies in the world and the respective exchange rate with the USD. According to theory, a negative correlation is expected, meaning that an increase in the return of one of the assets...

The purpose of the study was to investigate which factors determine saving and financing in Islamic banks in Indonesia by using Gregory-Hansen cointegration, vector error correction mode (VECM), Granger causality, and the impulse response function. The results disclose the existence of a...

We studied the dependence structure between West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices and the exchange rates of BRICS1 countries, using copula models. We used the Normal, Plackett, rotated-Gumbel, and Student's t copulas to measure the constant dependence, and we captured the dynamic dependence...

The exchange rate is one of the most monitored economic variables reflecting the state of the economy in the long run, while affecting it significantly in the short run. However, prediction of the exchange rate is very complicated. In this contribution, for the purposes of predicting the...

This study investigated the relative Granger causal effects of oil price on exchange rate, trade balance, and foreign reserve in Nigeria. We used seasonally adjusted quarterly data from 1986Q4 to 2018Q1 to remove predictable changes in the series. Given the non-stationarity of our variables, we...

There has been much interest in the relationship between the price of crude oil, the value of the U.S. dollar, and the U.S. interest rate since the 1980s. For example, the sustained surge in the real price of oil in the 2000s is often attributed to the declining real value of the U.S. dollar as...

This study is meant to be an evaluation sustained by theoretical and empirical considerations of the exchange rate impact on international commercial trade competitiveness. In this respect, the study aims to find how the exchange rate influences Romanian competitiveness through assessing the...

We put forward the novel concept of energy contagion, i.e. a deepening of energy-finance linkages under crisis periods in energy markets, and test for this using standard correlation measures and recently proposed adjusted correlation, co-skewness, and co-volatility contagion tests. Our analysis...

The uncovered interest rate parity condition lies at the heart of the "impossible trinity", stating that the three objectives of fixed exchange rates, free capital flows, and independent monetary policy cannot be pursued simultaneously. We argue that although monetary unification does indeed...

This paper investigates the predictability of exchange rate changes by extracting the factors from the three-, four-, and five-factor model of the relative Nelson-Siegel class. Our empirical analysis shows that the relative spread factors are important for predicting future exchange rate...

We investigate and find evidence for the hysteresis hypothesis in UK imports from South Asian countries, using a monthly sample data that covers 1999 to 2012. This paper finds evidence of the asymmetric effect of exchange rate volatility that "large" depreciations significantly reduce UK imports...

Building on an analytical model, we provide cross-country empirical evidence that net skilled emigration appreciates bilateral real exchange rates through the wage channel in source countries. Chains of causality in the presence of the Law of One Price run through the "spending effect" and the...

The main goal of this paper is to examine the influence of macro factors and the degree of the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) on aggregate and disaggregate import prices of the industrial sectors in the short- and long-run. The study is based on a model used by Campa and Goldberg (2002) and...

This paper investigates the predictive properties of import and export prices of commodities on the exchange rates. A period from 1993 to 2016 is considered. We find that forecasts of the exchange rate adding commodity export and import prices are superior to those neglecting these variables....

This paper presents a new measure of capital flow pressures in the form of a recast exchange market pressure index. The measure captures pressures that materialize in actual international capital flows as well as pressures that result in exchange rate adjustments. The formulation is...

This study revisits and tests empirically the Portfolio Theory of Inflation (PTI), which analyzes how the effectiveness of macroeconomic policy in open and globally financially integrated economies is influenced by global investor decisions (Bossone, The portfolio theory of inflation and policy...

This paper uses detailed firm transaction data on manufactured exports to analyse the dilution of the real exchange rate-export relationship in South Africa over the period 2010 to 2014. Our empirical results show that firms that are larger, have higher export shares in destination markets, and...

In the decades since Independence Botswana has faced significant macroeconomic challenges. Official institutions set fiscal, monetary, and exchange rate policies in the face of these challenges. This paper identifies a target for each policy, reviews the extent to which each policy has been...

This paper decomposes the time-varying effect of exogenous exchange rate shocks on euro area countries in ation into country-specific (idiosyncratic) and region-wide (common) components. To do so, we propose a exible empirical framework based on dynamic factor models subject to drifting...

The dynamic effects of ECB announcements, disentangled into pure monetary policy and central bank information shocks, on the euro (EUR) exchange rate are examined using a Bayesian Proxy Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model fed with high-frequency data. Contractionary monetary policy shocks result...

The insulating properties of flexible exchange rates have long been a highly contentious issue in emerging markets - not least in Asian emerging markets. A number of recent theoretical and empirical studies question whether a trade-off exists between rigid exchange rate regimes and insulation...

The dynamic effects of ECB announcements, disentangled into pure monetary policy and central bank information shocks, on the euro (EUR) exchange rate are examined using a Bayesian Proxy Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model fed with high-frequency data. Contractionary monetary policy shocks result...

This paper provides an econometric analysis of the short-run impact of interest rates on the Swiss franc exchange rate covering the period January 2001 to June 2011 using daily data. Our model includes both the exchange rate of the Swiss franc against euro and dollar and uses the plausible...

The objective of this paper is to test whether the complete pass-through of exchange rate exists when there are almost no transaction costs and in the environment of competitive market. In general, the literature claims that the pass-through of exchange rate is incomplete due to imperfect...

This study revisits and tests empirically the Portfolio Theory of Inflation (PTI), which analyzes how the effectiveness of macroeconomic policy in open and globally financially integrated economies is influenced by global investor decisions (Bossone, The portfolio theory of inflation and policy...

This research aims to analyse the response of the Bank Indonesia (BI rate) to the Indonesian economic stability. The data analysis is stationarity test, model stability test, lag determination, Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR), Impulse Response Function (IRF), and Variance Decomposition...

This research aims to analyse the response of the Bank Indonesia (BI rate) to the Indonesian economic stability. The data analysis is stationarity test, model stability test, lag determination, Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR), Impulse Response Function (IRF), and Variance Decomposition...

In this study, the impact of terrorist attacks on exchange rate is estimated. Particularly, the study focuses on terrorist attacks in Turkey and its implication on Turkish lira versus pound sterling exchange rate. In order to find the causal effect, the study employed Autoregressive distributive...

This paper considers the effect of exchange rate (ER) level on China’s domestic prices during the period of 2003–2012. We examine China’s consumer price index (CPI), import price index (IPI) and producer price index (PPI) by using time series vector error correction analysis. The main...