Search Results - subject_exact:"Expectation formation"

Luetticke, Ralph; Roth, Christopher; Wiederholt, Mirko; … - 2026

The Lucas critique holds that policy evaluations based on historical correlations can fail because policy changes alter expectation formation. We develop a new approach to monetary policy evaluation that addresses this concern: we elicit expectations under alternative policy scenarios from...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015654935

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Macro theory with measured expectations

Luetticke, Ralph; Roth, Christopher; Wiederholt, Mirko; … - 2026

Book / Working Paper

Macro theory with measured expectations

Luetticke, Ralph; Roth, Christopher; Wiederholt, Mirko; … - 2026

Book / Working Paper

Quality disclosures and disappointment : evidence from the academy nominations

Rossi, Michelangelo; Schleef, Felix - 2026 - Original version: December 2024, this version: Januar 2026

This study examines the unintended consequences of quality disclosures, focusing on how Academy Award nominations impact consumer satisfaction in the movie industry. Awards and certifications typically signal high quality and increase consumer expectations. Yet, if the experience falls short of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015605088

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Quality disclosures and disappointment : evidence from the academy nominations

Rossi, Michelangelo; Schleef, Felix - 2024

Book / Working Paper

Attention to the macroeconomy

Link, Sebastian; Peichl, Andreas; Pfäuti, Oliver; … - 2026 - Original version: December 2023, this version: January 2026

We measure which economic topics are top of mind using quarterly German household and firm panels from 2020 to 2024, a period that spans the post-pandemic inflation surge and the subsequent disinflation. With these data, we study the determinants and consequences of having inflation top of mind....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015605200

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Attention to the macroeconomy

Link, Sebastian; Peichl, Andreas; Roth, Christopher; … - 2023

Book / Working Paper

Attention to the macroeconomy

Link, Sebastian; Peichl, Andreas; Roth, Christopher; … - 2023

Book / Working Paper

Attention to the macroeconomy

Link, Sebastian; Peichl, Andreas; Roth, Christopher; … - 2023

Book / Working Paper

Attention to the macroeconomy

Link, Sebastian; Peichl, Andreas; Roth, Christopher; … - 2023

Book / Working Paper

Fiscal responses to monetary policy : insights from a survey of government officials

Dibiasi, Andreas; Mikosch, Heiner; Sarferaz, Samad; … - 2025

In a novel survey, we study how German senior government officials systematically adjust fiscal policy in response to economic shocks, focusing on their fiscal responses to a contractionary monetary policy shock. Using randomized vignette treatments, we examine how officials update GDP and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015548863

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Fiscal responses to monetary policy : insights from a survey of government officials

Dibiasi, Andreas; Mikosch, Heiner; Sarferaz, Samad; … - 2025

Book / Working Paper

Asymmetric inflation target credibility

Coleman, Winnie; Nautz, Dieter - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015573359

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Asymmetric inflation target credibility

Coleman, Winnie; Nautz, Dieter - 2025 - This version: January 2025

Edition: This version: January 2025

Book / Working Paper

Asymmetric inflation target credibility

Coleman, Winnie; Nautz, Dieter - 2025 - This version: January 2025

Edition: This version: January 2025

Book / Working Paper

Asymmetric inflation target credibility

Coleman, Winnie; Nautz, Dieter - 2025 - This version: March 2025

Edition: This version: March 2025

Book / Working Paper

The demand for economic narratives

Blesse, Sebastian; Gründler, Klaus; Heil, Philipp; … - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015553968

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The demand for economic narratives

Blesse, Sebastian; Gründler, Klaus; Heil, Philipp; … - 2025

Book / Working Paper

The demand for economic narratives

Blesse, Sebastian; Gründler, Klaus; Heil, Philipp; … - 2025

Book / Working Paper

The demand for economic narratives

Blesse, Sebastian; Gründler, Klaus; Heil, Philipp; … - 2025

Book / Working Paper

Televised inflation : measuring TV news coverage and its effect on household expectations

Çekin, Semih Emre; Polattimur, Hamza - 2025

This paper introduces a novel TV news index specifically designed to track coverage of rising inflation across major US TV channels: ABC, CBS, CNN, and Fox News. The index is generated daily and aggregated into a monthly measure. Using this index, we analyze the impact of TV news on inflation...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015473068

Commitment vs credibility : macroeconomic effects of climate policy uncertainty

Marotta, Fulvia; Pagliari, Maria Sole; Winter, Jasper de - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015448592

How do households adjust house price expectations in an era of high inflation? : experimental evidence

Mariani, Gioia M.; Porreca, Eleonora; Rondinelli, Concetta - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015461891

Speaking of inflation : the influence of fed speeches on expectations

Granziera, Eleonora; Larsen, Vegard Høghaug; … - 2025

We examine how speeches by Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members, including regional Fed presidents, shape private sector expectations. Speeches that signal rising inflationary pressures prompt both households and professional forecasters to raise their inflation expectations, consistent...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015427004

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Speaking of inflation : the influence of fed speeches on expectations

Granziera, Eleonora; Larsen, Vegard Høghaug; … - 2025

Book / Working Paper

Speaking of inflation : the influence of fed speeches on expectations

Granziera, Eleonora; Larsen, Vegard Høghaug; … - 2025

Book / Working Paper

Explaining business sentiment : insights from the ifo Business Survey

Sauer, Stefan; Wohlrabe, Klaus - 2025

The ifo Business Climate Index is one of the most important leading indicators for the German economy. It is based on a monthly survey of approximately 9,000 firms and reflects responses to two core questions: the assessment of the firms' current business situation and their expectations for the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015427354

Contextual expectations and inflation dynamics

Elgin, Ceyhun - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015562198

Uncertainty and change : survey evidence of firms' subjective beliefs

Bachmann, Ruediger; Carstensen, Kai; Lautenbacher, Stefan; … - 2025 - Original version: November 2021, this version: October 2025

This paper studies how managers plan under uncertainty. In a new panel survey of German manufacturing firms, we observe both forecasts of sales growth and a quantitative measure of subjective uncertainty. We show that subjective uncertainty reflects change experienced by firms: it is high when...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015607715

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Uncertainty and change : survey evidence of firms' subjective beliefs

Bachmann, Ruediger; Carstensen, Kai; Lautenbacher, Stefan; … - 2021

Book / Working Paper

Uncertainty and Change : Survey Evidence of Firms' Subjective Beliefs

Bachmann, Ruediger; Carstensen, Kai; Lautenbacher, Stefan; … - 2021

Book / Working Paper

Uncertainty and change : survey evidence of firms' subjective beliefs

Bachmann, Ruediger; Carstensen, Kai; Lautenbacher, Stefan; … - 2021

Book / Working Paper

Uncertainty and Change : Survey Evidence of Firms' Subjective Beliefs

Bachmann, Ruediger; Carstensen, Kai; Lautenbacher, Stefan; … - 2021

Book / Working Paper

Narratives about the macroeconomy

Andre, Peter; Haaland, Ingar; Roth, Christopher; … - 2024

We provide evidence on narratives about the macroeconomy-the stories people tell to explain macroeconomic phenomena-in the context of a historic surge in inflation. In surveys with more than 10,000 US households and 100 academic experts, we measure economic narratives in open-ended survey...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015057525

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Narratives about the macroeconomy

Andre, Peter; Haaland, Ingar; Roth, Christopher; … - 2023

Book / Working Paper

Narratives about the macroeconomy

Andre, Peter; Haaland, Ingar; Roth, Christopher; … - 2022

Book / Working Paper

The impact of credit market sentiment shocks

Boeck, Maximilian; Zörner, Thomas - 2024

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015116884

Uncovering subjective models from survey expectations

Hou, Chenyu; Wang, Tao - 2024 - This Version: September, 2024

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015271923

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Uncovering Subjective Models from Survey Expectations

Hou, Chenyu - 2021

Book / Working Paper

Fiscal responses to monetary policy : insights from a survey among government officials

Dibiasi, Andreas; Mikosch, Heiner; Sarferaz, Samad; … - 2024

This paper leverages a novel survey among German senior government officials to investigate fiscal responses to monetary policy shocks. Using randomized vignette treatments, we present officials with scenarios of increased government interest costs and analyze their expected fiscal adjustments....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015053809

Attention to the macroeconomy

Link, Sebastian; Peichl, Andreas; Pfäuti, Oliver; … - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015615954

Quality disclosures and disappointment: Evidence from the academy nominations

Rossi, Michelangelo; Schleef, Felix - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015616050

Predicting university dropouts : evidence on the value of student expectations and motivation

Epper, Thomas; Ibsen, Kristoffer Holst Kroustrup; Koch, … - 2026

University dropout is costly, making it a policy priority to identify factors that predict dropout. Using a survey experiment with incoming first-year students linked to long-run administrative outcomes, we assess which information improves dropout prediction beyond standard university records....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015616999

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Predicting university dropouts : evidence on the value of student expectations and motivation

Epper, Thomas Frank; Ibsen, Kristoffer Holst Kroustrup; … - 2026

Book / Working Paper

Tastes, ability or expected wages? : the intended choice of college majors by students in Italy

Brunello, Giorgio; Campo, Francesco; Lodigiani, Elisabetta - 2026

We investigate the factors influencing the intended college major choices of high school students in Italy, ranking the relative importance of expected earnings, perceived ability, and major-specific tastes, that we measure directly using a Coller and Williams game. We find that major-specific...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015617017

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Tastes, ability or expected wages? : the intended choice of college majors by students in Italy

Brunello, Giorgio; Campo, Francesco; Lodigiani, Elisabetta - 2026

Book / Working Paper

Expertise and prediction accuracy

Grewenig, Elisabeth; Gründler, Klaus; Lergetporer, Philipp - 2026

Public support for policy interventions depends on citizens' beliefs about their likely ef-fects. We examine how individuals form such beliefs by studying their predictions of experimental outcomes in a policy-relevant setting, and why their predictions differ from expert benchmarks. We elicit...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015609852

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Expertise and prediction accuracy

Grewenig, Elisabeth; Gründler, Klaus; Lergetporer, Philipp - 2026

Book / Working Paper

Wage expectations and job search

Altmann, Steffen; Mahlstedt, Robert; Rattenborg, Malte Jacob - 2026

In a field experiment with 9,000 Danish job seekers, we study how unemployed workers' wage expectations affect job search and re-employment. In our survey, we generate exogenous variation in respondents' wage expectations by informing a random half of them about re-employment wages of comparable...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015617424

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Wage expectations and job search

Altmann, Steffen; Mahlstedt, Robert; Rattenborg, Malte; … - 2026

Book / Working Paper

Wage expectations and job search

Altmann, Steffen; Mahlstedt, Robert; Rattenborg, Malte Jacob - 2026

Book / Working Paper

Beliefs that move the economy : shocks to firms' and households' inflation expectations

Galiński, Paweł R. - 2026 - This version: 10th February 2026. First version: 1st June 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015618475

Heterogeneity in consumers' economic expectations across euro area countries

Dräger, Lena; Marenčák, Michal; Giang Hong Nghiem; … - 2026

This paper examines cross-country differences in consumer expectations about macroeconomic outcomes and mortgage borrowing conditions within a monetary union. Using harmonized microdata from the ECB Consumer Expectations Survey for eleven euro area countries, we document significant national...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015654587

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Heterogeneity in consumers' economic expectations across euro area countries

Dräger, Lena; Marenčák, Michal; Giang Hong Nghiem; … - 2026

Book / Working Paper

Heterogeneity in consumers' economic expectations across euro area countries

Dräger, Lena; Marenčák, Michal; Giang Hong Nghiem; … - 2026

Book / Working Paper

Investor valuation, taxation, and time varying expected returns

Bjerksund, Petter; Schjelderup, Guttorm - 2026

This paper analyzes the valuation of publicly traded stocks subject to capital income and wealth taxation when expected returns are time-varying. We show that, in an efficient capital market, investor valuation coincides with the market price under a broad class of tax systems, including accrued...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015654699

Have we got news for you : theory and evidence on firms' optimal expected capacity utilization

Amberg, Niklas; Friberg, Richard; Liu, Xiang; Syverson, Chad - 2026

We use quarterly micro data on capacity utilization among Swedish manufacturing firms to show that idiosyncratic factors are more important than aggregate influences in explaining variation in capacity utilization across firms and over time. Idiosyncratic does not mean unpredictable, however. A...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015654782

Subjective earnings and employment dynamics

Arellano, Manuel; Attanasio, Orazio P.; Borella, Margherita - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015618899

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Subjective earnings and employment dynamics

Arellano, Manuel; Attanasio, Orazio P.; Borella, Margherita - 2026

Book / Working Paper

Subjective earnings and employment dynamics

Arellano, Manuel; Attanasio, Orazio P.; Borella, Margherita - 2026

Book / Working Paper

Subjective Earnings and Employment Dynamics

Arellano, Manuel; Attanasio, Orazio P.; Borella, Margherita - 2026

Book / Working Paper

The causal effects of tariff uncertainty on consumers' macroeconomic expectations and spending plans

Candia, Bernardo; Mitchell, James; Pfajfar, Damjan - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015619007

Hyperinflation perceptions : an experimental study

Assi, Ranim; Maniadis, Zacharias; Geōrganas, Sōtērēs - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015608755

Tariffs and firm expectations

Abberger, Klaus; Bibaj, Arbërim; Gersbach, Hans; … - 2026

We study how firms' expectations respond to prospective tariff shocks using a randomized survey experiment among Swiss manufacturing firms. When confronted with potential U.S. tariffs, respondents expect sizable declines in turnover and investment, yet anticipate increases in ex-tariff export...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015609695

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Tariffs and firm expectations

Abberger, Klaus; Bibaj, Arbërim; Gersbach, Hans; … - 2026

Book / Working Paper

Tariffs and firm expectations

Abberger, Klaus; Bibaj, Arbërim; Gersbach, Hans; … - 2026

Book / Working Paper

Expectations versus reality in Business formation

Dinlersoz, Emin Murat; Ma, Yueyuan - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015609727

Monetary policy and SME expectations

Anastasiou, Dimitris; Bragoudakis, Zacharias; … - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015609735

The accuracy and malleability of parental beliefs about child socio-emotional health

Bousselin, Audrey; Brocas, Isabelle; Menta, Giorgia; … - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015647360

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The accuracy and malleability of parental beliefs about child socio-emotional health

Bousselin, Audrey; Brocas, Isabelle; Menta, Giorgia; … - 2026

Book / Working Paper

Why did inflation rise and fall in 2021-24? : channels and evidence from expectations

Reis, Ricardo - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015616623

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Why did inflation rise and fall in 2021-24? : channels and evidence from expectations

Reis, Ricardo - 2026

Book / Working Paper

Compressed beliefs

Zihlmann, Christian - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015613884

Self-protection and self-insurance in pest management : the role of risk preferences and beliefs

Bougherara, Douadia; Nauges, Céline; Salanié, François; … - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015614466

What drives business expectations? : a tale of demand and supply

Battistini, Niccolò; Neves, Pedro - 2026

This paper develops a novel empirical framework to analyse the drivers of business expectations in the euro area. Using harmonised data from the European Commission's business surveys for manufacturing, services, and construction, we build composite business expectations indices (BEI) for...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015592767

Causal effects of interest rate beliefs on firm decisions and their aggregate implications

Bartscher, Alina Kristin; Duernecker, Georg; Goensch, … - 2026

We study firms' financial and real decisions after an exogenous change in their interest rate beliefs induced by a survey experiment with an information treatment. Firms revise their expectations downward after learning about the European Central Bank's policy rate. Moreover, we find a reduction...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015593212

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Causal effects of interest rate beliefs on firm decisions and their aggregate implications

Bartscher, Alina Kristin; Duernecker, Georg; Goensch, … - 2026

Book / Working Paper

Ambiguity-averse aggregation under heterogeneous beliefs

Norman, Thomas W. L. - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015594827

Inflation and human capital investment decisions

Rodríguez-Planas, Núria; Westergren, Kerstin - 2026

This study investigates the impact of inflation on human capital investment decisions. Using a specially designed survey we estimate the causal effect of recent price level increases on the graduation plans of over 1,200 U.S. university students. We find that inflation caused over half of the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015596737

Housing bubbles with phase transitions

Hirano, Tomohiro; Akira Toda, Alexis - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015596868

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Housing bubbles with phase transitions

Hirano, Tomohiro; Akira Toda, Alexis - 2024

Book / Working Paper

Symmetric expected utility

Preker, Jurek - 2026

We investigate and axiomatize preferences that display indifference between deterministic states, but exhibit strict orderings over lotteries over these states. Such preferences might be due to the ability to adopt to states, or a (dis)taste for uncertainty. We derive a representation theorem...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015588344

The green transition and households' macroeconomic expectations : a survey experiment

Barro, Tjantana; Marenčák, Michal; Giang Hong Nghiem - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015627246

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The green transition and households' macroeconomic expectations : a survey experiment

Barro, Tjantana; Marencak, Michal; Giang Hong Nghiem - 2026

Book / Working Paper

A horserace of methods for eliciting induced beliefs online

Banko-Ferran, Daniel; Burdea, Valeria; Woon, Jonathan - 2026

This study evaluates the effectiveness of three widely used belief elicitation methods in an online setting: the binarized scoring rule (BSR), the stochastic Becker-DeGroot-Marschak mechanism (BDM), and unincentivized introspection. Despite the theoretical advantages of incentive-compatible...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015583532

Macroprudential policy and housing market expectations

Kuang, Pei; Mitra, Kaushik; Tang, Li; Xie, Shihan - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015583629

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Macroprudential Policy and Housing Market Expectations

Kuang, Pei; Mitra, Kaushik; Tang, Li; Xie, Shihan - 2023

Book / Working Paper

Fiscal expansion and households' income inequality expectations : a survey experiment

Ludolph, Melina; Giang Hong Nghiem; Tonzer, Lena - 2026

We study how individuals' views on current and future levels of income inequality change during periods of expansionary fiscal policy. In a randomized controlled trial (RCT), we provide information on fiscal expansion to a representative sample of the German population. Our findings reveal that...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015604454

Demand for dollars : evidence from survey expectations

Ballensiefen, Benedikt; Somogyi, Fabricius; Winterberg, … - 2026

We study the determinants of US dollar demand across market participants and traded instruments using survey-based exchange rate and macroeconomic expectations. Leveraging granular FX trading data and forward looking expectations, we present three results. First, currency investors increase...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015605616

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Demand for dollars : evidence from survey expectations

Ballensiefen, Benedikt; Somogyi, Fabricius; Winterberg, … - 2026 - This version: 26 April 2026

Edition: This version: 26 April 2026

Book / Working Paper

Experts as intermediaries

Gründler, Klaus; Lamla, Michael; Potrafke, Niklas; … - 2026

Households often struggle to understand policy interventions, limiting the effectiveness of policy transmission. We study how economic policy signals reach and influence households, focusing on the role of professional economists as interpretive intermediaries. When policy signals are complex...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015606313

“Us vs them” : salient conflict and belief polarization

Gennaioli, Nicola; Schwerter, Frederik; Tabellini, … - 2026 - This Version: March 17, 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015639676

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"Us vs them" : salient conflict and belief polarization

Gennaioli, Nicola; Schwerter, Frederik; Tabellini, … - 2026

Book / Working Paper

"US vs them" : salient conflict and belief polarization

Gennaioli, Nicola; Schwerter, Frederik; Tabellini, … - 2026

Book / Working Paper