We study how households choose between three mortgage contracts with different payment structures: fixed-rate fixed-payment, variable-rate variable-payment, and a hybrid variable-rate fixed-payment mortgage where interest rate changes affect principal repayment rather than payment size. This...

Russia’s war in Ukraine continues unabated, despite international efforts to broker a peace settlement. Nearly four years of full-scale war have taken a staggering social, humanitarian, and economic toll, with real GDP in 2025 estimated at about 20 percent below pre-war levels. The authorities...

Malaysia’s economy has shown notable resilience against global trade tensions and policy uncertainty, supported by strong domestic demand, a global tech-sector upcycle, and sound economic policies. Given the heightened global uncertainty, policy discussions centered on how Malaysia can sustain...

The economy of Cabo Verde has been growing at a fast pace over the last four years. The authorities have maintained macroeconomic stability and advanced reforms, though climate risks, SOE pressures, and global uncertainties remain. Economic growth is projected at 5.2 percent in 2025, following...

Kuwait has started the transition from an oil dependent welfare state towards a dynamic and diversified economy. Reform momentum has been building, starting with enactment of the Financing and Liquidity Law. Alongside a public investment scale-up, the authorities are working on wide-ranging...

Supportive external conditions and domestic policy tightening helped stabilize economic imbalances and the exchange rate (ER), though policies have eased recently. Stronger-than-expected activity in key partner countries boosted GDP growth in 2024−25:Q3, and, along with Chinese debt service...

The economy has been resilient through turbulence but remains scarred with large structural fiscal deficits, elevated and rising public debt, and a weak external position. Reducing vulnerabilities and imbalances against headwinds from long-term spending pressures and a deteriorated, more...

Despite headwinds from energy shortages and declining prices for key export commodities, the recovery gained further momentum in 2025, underpinned by robust domestic demand. After peaking in March, inflation steadily declined on the back of lower import prices and improved supply conditions....

Mozambique faces deep-rooted development challenges, including widespread poverty, regional insecurity, and high climate vulnerability. However, its natural resource sector holds promise of significant revenue for the country, which—if invested wisely—will allow it to address development...

Despite being buffeted by multiple shocks, the Chinese economy has shown remarkable resilience and continues to be a significant driver of global growth. China’s growth model, which has historically delivered impressive gains, now faces challenges. The protracted adjustment in the property...

Since the 2024 Art. IV consultation, the authorities have aimed to balance disinflation with steady growth. Following a fiscal expansion in 2024, the deficit was reduced substantially in 2025 and, despite policy rate cuts, real interest rates remain high. Inflation (31 percent y/y in December)...

Thailand’s economy has been resilient in an uncertain global economic environment. However, it faces salient structural challenges, cyclical headwinds and political uncertainty. GDP growth is projected to slow from 2.1 percent in 2025 to 1.6 percent in 2026, and inflation average -0.1 percent...

The re-elected government has laid out a bold reform agenda since taking office in May. Following a period of high inflation, the convergence of the economy toward balance is creating the opportunity to focus on ambitious structural reforms to address medium-term challenges. Delivering on the...

The first review of the ECF was delayed amid program slippages last year. The authorities exceeded the 2024 budget deficit by a sizable margin, and the BSL helped finance the overruns. At the same time, higher-than-expected government spending on imports and energy subsidies substantially...

Suriname is about to experience a significant oil boom. The task ahead needs to be to prepare a robust institutional framework that will harness this new wealth, spend it effectively, and ensure the livelihoods of the population are materially improved by it. Building on important achievements...

The German economy has been hit with large shocks in recent years, including an energy-price shock following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, rapid monetary tightening required to contain subsequent inflation, and heightened trade-related headwinds. These external shocks, together with weak...

Owing to its ample natural endowments, independent institutions, and strong monetary policy framework, South Africa’s economy has proven resilient to renewed global turbulence related to greater protectionism, fragmentation, and heightened policy uncertainty in 2025. However, long-standing...

Côte d’Ivoire’s economy continues to show resilience, supported by the restoration of fiscal and external buffers. The EFF/ECF-supported program approved in May 2023 (400 percent of quota) has largely eliminated macroeconomic imbalances and safeguarded a moderate risk of debt distress....

The Bahamas has been in the midst of a solid economic recovery, supported by buoyant tourism. This has created space to strengthen public finances, improve the institutional framework for fiscal policymaking, and invest in disaster risk management. Inflation has declined, supported by the peg...

Malta's economy has grown rapidly over the past decade, with per capita income nearly doubling since 2013. Growth averaged close to 7 percent annually, led by labor-intensive tourism, online gaming, and professional services, and was supported by inflows of foreign workers. Labor-driven growth...

Economic growth slowed to 6.3 percent in 2024 (compared to 6.8 percent in 2023), reflecting a sluggish extractive sector and is projected to slow further to 4.2 percent in 2025 due to an expected contraction in the extractive sector and a slowdown in the non-extractive sector. Inflation is...

For Poland, Russia’s war in Ukraine represented a major downward shock to output and upward shock to inflation. However, the strong real wage growth and fiscal stimulus of recent years have driven a nearly full closing of the output gap. In addition, inflation has returned to target due to...

Achieving middle-income status will require Bangladesh to restore lasting macroeconomic and financial stability and implement bold reforms to strengthen institutions and foster job creation, especially for youth. Persistently low fiscal revenues, weaknesses in the banking sector, stubbornly high...

Recovery is underway with improving fiscal balance, declining debt, and well-contained inflation, though FY2024 real GDP remained below pre-pandemic levels and the debt level is still high. The 2023 Compact Review Agreement (CRA-23) and a successful tax reform have provided Palau with additional...

Despite external and domestic shocks, Zambia has corrected macroeconomic imbalances, reached agreement on most of the external debt under the perimeter of the debt restructuring, and undertaken sustained fiscal consolidation while safeguarding social spending. Economic activity has expanded in...

In July 2024, the Board approved a four-year arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility to support the Ethiopian authorities’ Homegrown Economic Reform agenda (HGER), which aims to correct macroeconomic imbalances, restore external debt sustainability, and lay the foundations for high,...

The Direction of Planning (DNP) of the Ministry of Finance has sought Technical Assistance from ICD to help develop capacity for public debt projections and analysis. Pre-scoping and pre-mission meetings revealed that there was no single unit responsible for producing public debt projections. It...

The Direction of Planning (DNP) of the Ministry of Finance has sought Technical Assistance from ICD to help develop capacity for public debt projections and analysis. Pre-scoping and pre-mission meetings revealed that there was no single unit responsible for producing public debt projections. It...

Social conditions have improved significantly in the last decade, raising Bhutan’s living standards while inequality and poverty have declined. The economy has been recovering from the pandemic shock, but external imbalances remain and reserves are still below pre-pandemic levels. Growth is...

Kazakhstan’s economy is showing clear signs of overheating. After growing by around 5 percent in 2023 and 2024, the economy is expected to expand by 6.2 percent in 2025, fueled by rising oil production, a loose fiscal stance, expanding quasi-fiscal activities, and rapid consumer lending....

The economic slowdown that began in 2024 continued into early 2025, but growth has since picked up. Looking ahead, the Slovenian economy is facing structural challenges from rising spending pressures, including those related to population aging, and weak productivity growth

The Nicaraguan economy weathered well multiple shocks since 2018, supported by appropriate macroeconomic and financial policies, substantial pre-2018 buffers (gross international reserves and central government deposits), and financing from international financial institutions (IFIs) during the...

Economic activity remains strong despite global uncertainty. Favorable medium-term growth prospects are underpinned by Paraguay’s macroeconomic stability and the ongoing implementation of comprehensive structural reforms. Inflation remains under control, public debt at prudent levels, and...

Canada is adjusting to the largest shift in North American trade policy since NAFTA. The economy has been more resilient than initially feared, supported by USMCA exemptions, resilient consumption, and policy cushioning. Nonetheless, elevated trade uncertainty has weighed on exports, investment,...

Economic growth remains strong despite adverse shocks. Inflation is well within its target band, and the financial sector broadly resilient. Downside risks stem from trade policy shocks, prolonged uncertainty, and global financial market volatility. Ensuring durable and high-quality growth will...

Grenada’s economy continues to navigate elevated global uncertainties well in the aftermath of damages caused by the 2024 Hurricane Beryl. The resilience of the tourism sector, ongoing reconstruction and, increasingly, other development priority investments helped sustain robust GDP growth....

Since the 2023 downturn, the economic recovery has been slow as consumption has remained weak and construction investment fell. Unemployment continued to increase, largely driven by expanding labor supply, while inflation remained contained at around 2 percent. The economy is set to regain...

As its reform agenda advances under Oman Vision 2040, Oman has demonstrated strong resilience to heightened global uncertainty, renewed geopolitical tensions, and oil price fluctuations in 2025. Nonhydrocarbon economic activities continue expanding, while inflation remains low. Fiscal and...

St. Lucia staged a robust recovery after the pandemic, buoyed by tourism rebound. The economy is projected to grow by 1.7 percent in 2025, following a strong expansion of 4.7 percent in 2024, with weaker tourism but strong construction activities, domestic demand, and credit expansion. Growth is...

The country continues to face a highly challenging environment marked by the conflict in the East, compounded by mounting humanitarian pressures. The situation continues to strain public finances, with escalating security spending crowding out other essential expenditure. Recent political...

Strong growth has continued during 2025 as large financial inflows have contributed to robust domestic demand, but the medium-term outlook remains vulnerable to a less favorable external environment in the context of regional and global uncertainty. Tajikistan’s favorable economic performance...

Emerging market economies (EMEs) regularly tap domestic and international capital markets through scheduled sovereign bond auctions. In this paper, we leverage a novel dataset covering over 75,000 sovereign issuance events and 20,000 securities from 20 EMEs between the early 2000s and 2023 to...

This paper examines the origins, evolution, and resolution efforts surrounding Sri Lanka's 2022 sovereign debt default. Many defaults are triggered by sudden external shocks, but, in contrast, Sri Lanka's crisis was largely the result of prolonged domestic policy failures, including chronic...

This study examines external debt pass-through to inflation in Nigeria using annual data from 1981 to 2020 based on structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model. The results reveal that an increase in external debt service leads to a significant depreciation of the exchange rate, which leads to...