This study applies Gradient Boosting Machines (GBMs) and principal component regression (PCR) to forecast the closing price of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) All-Share Index (ALSI), using daily data from 2009 to 2024, sourced from the Wall Street Journal. The models are evaluated under...

Regulatory sandboxes have emerged as policy instruments designed to support FinTech innovation while maintaining supervisory oversight. By allowing firms to test financial products in controlled environments, sandboxes aim to reduce regulatory uncertainty and facilitate market entry. Despite...

The results reveal significant evidence of herding in the overall, bearish, and extended crisis market phases during extreme downturns, while the magnitude of market returns in the tail distribution is considered. Asymmetric herding behavior is more pronounced and prevalent, conditioned by...

The study examines the dynamics of herding behavior in relation to macroeconomic shocks and monetary policy shifts in the Bangladesh equity market. By employing robust empirical methodologies across distinct market states including bullish, bearish, crisis, extended crisis, and COVID-19 phases,...

The global economy frequently experiences cycles of rapid growth followed by abrupt crashes, challenging economists and analysts in forecasting and risk management. Crashes like the dot-com bubble crash and the 2008 global financial crisis caused huge disruptions to the world economy. These...

Due to market volatility and complex regulations, forecasting stock price movements within the European banking sector is highly challenging. This study compares the predictive performance of Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (BiLSTM) and Long Short- Term Memory (LSTM) with traditional models...

Investor sentiment has the potential to serve as a predictive factor for cryptocurrency assets, yet its impact on volatility spillover across markets remains uncertain. This research investigates the influence of investor sentiment classification on the volatility spillover from stablecoins to...

In this study, we examine the critical question of whether global equity and bond assets (both green and non-green) offer effective hedging and safe haven properties against stock market risks in South Asia, with a focus on Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. The increasing integration...

Political risk, one of the most significant uncertainty shocks, affects firms' future attitudes toward risks and plays a crucial role in their decision making. A stock price crash risk is a classical topic in financial markets; therefore, this paper probes the relationship between firm-level...

In 1936, John Maynard Keynes proposed that emotions and instincts are pivotal in decision-making, particularly for investors. Both positive and negative moods can influence judgments and decisions, extending to economic and financial choices. Intuitions, emotional states, and biases...

To control for the endogeneity problem, this study applies the two-stage least squares technique to examine the impact of bank and stock market development on economic growth in the thirteen Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries in the European Union (EU) during 2001-2020. The first...

This study examined participants' willingness to pay for stock price forecasts provided by an algorithm, financial experts, and peers. Participants valued algorithmic advice more highly and relied on it as much as expert advice. This preference for algorithms - despite their similar or even...

In the evolving global economic landscape marked by technological advancements, liberalized markets, and the ascent of multinational corporations, Islamic banks have emerged as pivotal entities within the new economic paradigm, addressing the financial needs of societies eschewing Riba...

Once a famous tale of conquest, law and foreign bond markets, the saga of the Silesian Bonds of 1734-37 is missing from the literature on sovereign debt. The Silesian Bonds were among the earliest foreign currency sovereign bonds issued. They go into the market 84 years prior to the 1818...

The financial environment is under great pressure as a result of dynamically changing macroeconomic factors. In this situation, full of uncertainty, understanding the relationship between macroeconomic factors and financial markets becomes a key issue. Market analysts and investors are...

We investigate the role of speculation in the European natural gas market over the period 2020- 2024, a period marked by extreme price volatility driven by the energy crisis following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Replicating the framework of Knittel and Pindyck (2016), we disentangle the...

In a worldwide context marked by increasing attention to financial literacy as a factor of financial inclusion, Morocco take part of this dynamic, seeking to improve the financial skills of its population. This article does not measure financial literacy directly but aims to explore the...

In this paper, we analyze the impacts of financial innovation and financial deepening on the economic growth of 14 sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries from 1995 to 2023. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach and error correction model (ECM) were used to assess short- and long-run...

This paper constructs a high-frequency, news-based measure of rare earth supply shocks to examine how disruptions in these critical inputs affect global firm valuations. Using news articles between 2021 and 2025, I identify exogenous rare earth supply events, distinguishing between Chinese...

Inequality of wealth or liquid finance in a system with credit market imperfection adversely affects investment by poor investors. This is well known in the literature. In this paper we prove that the aggregate credit demand function would be relatively inelastic with unequal wealth distribution...

We develop a novel sentiment measure from survey forecasts that captures the component of beliefs arising from the systematic misaggregation of public information relative to a machine benchmark based on the same information set. We extend this sentiment measure historically for a panel of 78...

In emerging markets, stock markets play a crucial role in supporting long-term growth. This study explores the causal relationship between stock market development and economic growth in the Fragile Five countries-Brazil, India, Indonesia, South Africa, and Turkey-covering the period from 2001...

The World Bank asserts that reducing extreme poverty and achieving shared prosperity are both made possible through financial inclusion. Digital finance may enhance financial stability, thereby supporting more inclusive and sustainable economic growth. Despite its potential benefits, the link...

This study examines the determinants of gold returns over the period 2000-2025, a period marked by recurrent financial crises, geopolitical tensions, and major shifts in global monetary conditions. As gold represents both a strategic commodity and a key reserve asset, understanding the channels...

The COVID-19 pandemic constitutes one of the most significant exogenous shocks to global financial markets in recent history, raising questions about the robustness of market efficiency under extreme uncertainty. This study examines whether the pandemic affected the weak-form efficiency of the...

This paper provides an evidence-based assessment of the EU supervisory landscape by combining a comprehensive mapping of supervisory models and authorities with an analysis of capital market players across key sectors, including market infrastructures, asset management, and crypto-asset service...

I develop a framework analyzing how artificial intelligence (AI) reshapes monetary policy through three interrelated channels: cyclical transmission, structural transition, and financial stability. In the short run, AI can alter inflation dynamics by changing how supply and demand disturbances...

This paper investigates tail-risk transmission and asymmetric dependence in commodity markets using an asymmetric fuzzy vine copula framework applied to gold, crude oil, natural gas, and silver from 1 January 2015 to 1 January 2025, extracted from Yahoo Finance. Bootstrap-based trapezoidal fuzzy...

Cryptocurrencies play a central role in modern financial markets; however, geopolitical tensions and environmental concerns raise critical questions about their stability and informational efficiency. This study distinguishes between green cryptocurrencies (GCs), based on low-energy validation...

This paper evaluates an Adaptive LASSO-MGARCH model for multivariate volatility forecasting, with an application to green and conventional bonds, equities, energy commodities, and EU carbon allowances. By introducing coefficient-specific adaptive penalisation directly into the multivariate GARCH...

This paper develops a tractable consumption-based asset-pricing model in an i.i.d. economy that combines rare consumption disasters with ambiguity aversion implemented as a one-period entropic tilt under CRRA utility. Closed-form expressions for the risk-free rate, equity return moments, and the...

Despite rising stock markets in the United States and Europe from 2017 to 2024, we document that average daily stock market performance becomes negative when weighted by the amount of media coverage. We propose an explanation for this media negativity bias that does not rely on a bad-news bias...

This SAFE White Paper presents a structured economic framework for assessing asset-backed stablecoins in their capacity as privately issued, fiscally anchored monetary instruments. Specifically, we evaluate the implications of stablecoins for financial intermediation, sovereign debt markets, and...

This paper analyses the role of Sukuk issuance in driving economic growth amid the Global Financial Crisis (2007-2009), considering both short-term fluctuations and long-term outcomes during periods of financial distress.Using the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) approach of the ARDL model, the study...