This report presents the findings from the first of two activities conducted under the World Bank’s Advisory Services and Analytics project, with the primary aim of gaining insights into the increasing threats posed by wildfire outbreaks to both forests and local communities in Thailand. This...

This knowledge note provides a short overview of IWFRM approaches and select examples of different initiatives and approaches. The objective is to provide a succinct summary that can inform initial research and discussions in countries that are looking to reform their system and identify...

In the past two decades, about half of the new homes in the United States were built in areas at risk of natural hazards. Why is residential development exposed to such risk? I argue that regulated property-insurance pricing and land-use regulations contribute to this pattern. I study this...

We study how consumers form and revise inflation expectations using a unique, highly balanced monthly panel of Dutch households. We develop a Bayesian framework that nests Full-Information Rational Expectations (FIRE) alongside common forecasting heuristics and test it by recovering...

We study how consumers form and revise inflation expectations using a unique, highly balanced monthly panel of Dutch households. We develop a Bayesian framework that nests Full-Information Rational Expectations (FIRE) alongside common forecasting heuristics and test it by recovering...

This report summarizes the results of a diagnostic review of wildfire risk and management capacity in Iceland, and includes technical recommendations that can guide policy discussions, decisions, and actions in the immediate/short term as well as the medium to long term. The review followed the...

Over the past decades, about half of new U.S. homes were built in areas exposed to natural hazards. I argue that regulated property-insurance pricing and land-use constraints help explain this pattern. I study San Diego, where wildfire premiums are compressed by regulation and safer locations...

This paper studies the impact on cashflows and financial decisions of firms affected by wildfires, focusing on the wildfires that occurred in Portugal in 2017. Using establishment-level data from the hotel industry combined with geospatial information on wildfire proximity and land use, we...

How do financial markets respond to anticipated climate-driven wildfire risk? Using high-resolution meteorological forecasts, land use data, and U.S. municipal bond spreads, we find that municipalities facing greater future wildfire exposure already incur higher borrowing costs: A one standard...

Wildfires pose significant environmental and socioeconomic challenges, necessitating efficient management and prevention through proper resource allocation and financial oversight. Despite evidence on risks, drivers, and opportunity costs of intervention, there is little information on how...

This paper investigates the effects of air pollution on public mood using sentiment analysis of geolocated social media data. Analyzing approximately 7 million twitter posts from the United States in July 2015, we examine how fluctuations in air quality caused by Canadian wildfires influence...

This report contains the annual summary of the wildfire season of 2024 on the basis of data from the European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS). It is published early in 2025 to provide an advance comprehensive analysis of the wildfire season 2024. The analysis and data in the report...

The SILVANUS project is advancing wildfire management by developing an integrated platform that combines technologies for monitoring, prevention, and suppression of extreme wildfire incidents. The platform is designed to support forest managers, firefighters, and local authorities in addressing...

The increasing severity of wildfires calls for data-driven regional strategies for prevention and early intervention. This paper presents a diagnostic approach that combines artificial intelligence (AI), satellite data (mainly from Copernicus/Sentinel), and machine learning to assess and...

The rising demand for meat and animal products has strained land resources and created a livestock sector responsible for 20% of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, linked to desertification, deforestation, water contamination, and biodiversity loss. Quantifying this strain remains difficult...

The year 2024 was one of the most active years for fires in recent history across the Americas, highlighting the growing influence of climate change on fire behavior, frequency, and intensity. In the second half of the year, several regions in South America including in the Amazon were...

The Republic of Cyprus (hereafter referred to as 'Cyprus') faces a significant and increasing risk of wildfires, as evidenced by recent large-scale fires. The island is becoming susceptible to extreme weather events, fueled by climate change. Despite being an island of less than 10,000 km²,...

Romania faces rising wildfire risk, with both frequency and impact expected to intensify. In 2021, Romania was identified as one of the countries in the European Union (EU) most affected by wildfires. Despite the country's temperate continental climate, which generally reduces wildfire risk,...

Wildfires pose a significant and increasing risk across the European Union (EU). In 2023, wildfires burned over 500,000 ha of land, marking it as the fourth-largest area burned annually on record in the EU. In the same year, Greece experienced the largest wildfire ever recorded in Europe,...

Wildfire risk is increasing in Croatia. Between 2010 and 2021, the cost of damage due to wildfires across the country totaled over Euro 249 million; the 2017 fire season burned 67,666 ha of land and caused an estimated Euro 109 million in losses; and the 2022 season recorded 149 fires. Even...

We study the impacts of wildfires in Chile mapping local exposure to over 1,000 large wildfires occurring over 20 wildfire seasons. We consider both how very local exposure patterns owing to changes in ambient conditions - such as wind, atmospheric and topographic conditions - affect exposure to...

The year 2022 was marked by large wildfires that caused significant social, environmental and economic impacts. Describing some of the most impactful occurrences is essential, not only for historical record but also for drawing lessons that can be important for defining policies and improving...

This report contains the annual summary of the wildfire season of 2023 on the basis of data from the European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS). It is published early in 2024 to provide an advance comprehensive analysis of the wildfire season 2023. The analysis and data in the report...

This report contains the annual summary of the fire season of 2023 with official figures provided by 34 contributing countries for the number of fires, burnt areas and fire prevention efforts, and the analysis of fire danger and areas mapped in the European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS).

How are financial markets responding to anticipated climate-driven wildfire risk increases? Combining high-resolution meteorological predictions and land use pattern maps with detailed US municipal bond data, this paper finds that municipalities facing higher future wildfire risk increases are...

This study provides a comprehensive understanding of the Great Fire's effects on London's economic geography. Our analysis reveals both continuity and change. There was a swift postfire recovery accompanied by some shift in economic activity towards the City of Westminster by 1690, with markets...

Governments monitor air quality for regulatory purposes and, more recently, to provide information so individuals can act to lower their exposure to air pollution. Recent developments in low-cost technologies have also led to private adoption of air-quality monitors that produce publicly...

There is strong evidence on the mortality and morbidity external costs of air pollution. This paper focuses on another source of air pollution externality: the loss in solar electricity generation from increased atmospheric opacity due to air pollution. We use data from residential rooftop solar...

Unmanaged and overgrown coastal heathlands represent a substantial fire hazard. We analyse how this hazard in Norwegian coastal heathlands is influenced by weather conditions, land management, and usage. Our analysis integrates vegetation, maintenance, and management data with emergency response...