Like many newer EU Free Trade Agreements, the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) includes commitments concerning labour and social standards and environment and climate policy under the title the 'Level Playing Field'. This title includes non-regression provisions, which prohibit reducing or...

This paper develops a dynamic real-options model of tariff deterrence in which the exporting country, though subject to the importing country's market power, assumes the role of leader in a Stackelberg framework under uncertainty by acting preventively to dissuade the importer from imposing a...

This paper examines the trade dimensions of the policy instruments employed by the United States to secure critical minerals supply chains. Drawing on policy statements, executive orders, tariff schedules, and six bilateral critical minerals agreements announced in 2025, it assesses how US trade...

Export controls play a prominent role in the ongoing technological race between the United States and China. This study investigates the short-term direct effects of US export controls on US exports as well as the indirect effects of these measures on the exports of third countries. We collect...

This study is based on real options theory and uses a sample of Chinese listed companies from 2000 to 2016 to investigate the dynamic process and mechanisms by which trade policy uncertainty affects the upgrading of enterprises within the global value chain (GVC). The article finds that trade...

How should a developing country such as South Africa respond to the USA's "Liberation Day" Tariffs of April 2025 and subsequent shocks? Combining the GTAP-Dynamic (GDyn) Computable General Equilibrium model with an expanded Decision Support Model (DSM), we simulate five policy response scenarios...

This paper leverages Sri Lanka's 2021 chemical fertilizer import ban to quantify the costs of restricted fertilizer access for agriculture, trade, and welfare. Leveraging trade and production data, satellite-based yield estimates, and event studies, we document sharp declines in fertilizer...

This paper investigates the implications of trade policy uncertainty (TPU) in the United States for current account balance (CAB) dynamics, given renewed interest in pursuing trade policy measures to address persistent current account deficits. We examine whether TPU, a distinct source of policy...

• The EU-India FTA generates mutual economic gains of 0.12-0.13% of GDP for both partners, with bilateral trade surging by 41-65%. • Since the 50 percentage points tariffs imposed by the US cost India 1.6% of GDP, the EU-India FTA provides a crucial hedge while the EU demonstrates commitment...

The EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) came into force on 1 October 2023, introducing reporting requirements for importers of covered products and, from 2026, an obligation to pay a fee on the carbon content of imported goods. This paper uses indices of ad valorem tariffs to assess the...

• The 2025 US tariffs are an own goal: American importers and consumers bear nearly the entire cost. Foreign exporters absorb only about 4% of the tariff burden - the remaining 96% is passed through to US buyers. • Using shipment-level data covering over 25 million transactions valued at...

We use global tariffs to reveal the weights that nations implicitly place on the welfare of their trading partners relative to their own. Our estimated welfare weights suggest that formal and informal rules of the world trading system make countries internalize the impact of their policies onto...

This Policy Brief evaluates the trade policy of Donald Trump during the first year of his second presidential term. The administration pursued a strongly protectionist agenda, implementing new tariffs on a wide range of products and trading partners, including long‑standing allies such as the...

US President Donald Trump proposed implementing "reciprocal tariffs", under which the US would raise import tariffs to match those imposed by its trading partners, further undermining the multilateral rules-based system. This policy brief examines the status quo of tariff differentials between...

In July 1991, India began to dismantle its long-standing, highly restrictive import control regime and move toward a more open economy. How were policymakers able to dislodge and replace an entrenched system with powerful vested interests behind it? Standard explanations for policy change -...

This brief is focused on the possibility of a change in US trade defence policy towards China in light of the forthcoming US elections, which may affect EU exports to the US with high Chinese value added content.

Als Bestandteil der Weltwirtschaft sieht sich die deutsche Industrie drei Herausforderungen gegenüber. Erstens, der unilateralen Handelspolitik von "Trump 2.0" und ihre negativen Auswirkungen auf die globale Handelsordnung. Zweitens, der sinkenden globalen Nachfrage nach deutschen Exportgütern...

Addressing climate change requires green technology deployment. This paper uses firm-level import data in 35 emerging markets to examine how trade policies affect firms’ imports of products associated with solar, wind power, and electric vehicle value chains. Panel estimates show a...