An economy's primary objective is to foster high economic growth, ultimately enhancing the well-being of its citizens. Recent economic strategies have increasingly emphasized trade-oriented policies to achieve this goal. This study delves into the nexus between Saudi seaborne trade (measured in...

Moving beyond Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as the sole measure of economic performance is increasingly critical for addressing the complex challenges of sustainable development. The Inclusive Wealth Index (IWI) offers a more comprehensive framework for assessing long-term sustainability by...

This study investigates the main drivers of inflation measured by CPI inflation and GDP deflator across 20 advanced and emerging economies over the yearly span from 2014 to 2023. Using Principal Component Analysis and Panel Vector Autoregression, the research examines the roles of supply-side...

This study aimed to forecast the gross domestic product (GDP) of the South Caucasian nations (Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia) by scrutinizing the accuracy of various econometric methodologies. This topic is noteworthy considering the significant economic development exhibited by these...

The COVID-19 pandemic triggered unprecedented economic disruptions, raising critical questions about the resilience and adaptability of macroeconomic productivity across countries. This study examines the impact of COVID-19 on macroeconomic efficiency and productivity dynamics in 37 OECD...

This study considers the nonlinear relationship between GDP growth and unemployment in France (1975-2024) using a logistic smooth transition regression (LSTR) model. Findings reveal a threshold unemployment rate of 7.93%, above which the traditional Okun's law holds (GDP growth reduces...

This publication evaluates various real-time GDP nowcasting models for the euro area and six member countries (Belgium, Germany, Spain, France, Italy, and the Netherlands) using recent data from 2021 to 2024. It compares individual models and model averages at different estimation points,...

This paper introduces two methodological improvements to the Hodrick- Prescott (HP) filter for decomposing GDP into trend and cycle components. First, we propose a robust univariate filter that accounts for extreme observations - such as the COVID-19 pandemic - by treating them as additive...

Standard nowcasting frameworks commonly use weekly or monthly variables to monitor quarterly gross domestic product (GDP). However, this method is not suitable for economies that track GDP annually. We modify the state-space representation of an otherwise standard dynamic factor model to...

We build a dataset of output and price effects of conventional monetary policy containing 146,463 point estimates and confidence bands from 4,871 impulse-response functions in 409 primary studies. Simple average responses suggest that interest rate hikes substantially dampen output and prices....

As sustainability challenges push economies into low-carbon transitions, the question arises of what share of GDP is exposed to transition? We develop a two-stage model to examine the share of GDP facing transition risk. The first stage examines which sectors are directly exposed to...

The notion of the output gap is crucial in understanding underlying economic trends. The macroeconomic stabilization policy can only be effective for all sectors or regions of the economy if regional or sectoral output gaps are sufficiently coherent. This study proposes a new microeconometric...

Research background: Many people in Japan and other countries believe that national finances will not stand still and will go bankrupt if deficits continue at present level. It is like a religion. In this paper, however, we prove that this religion is wrong by using a simple mathematical model....

We study how inheritance affects labor supply over the life cycle, and we quantify its aggregate impact. Tracking earnings histories around some 135,000 inheritances and 5,000 lottery wins, we exploit the quasi-random timing and size of these events to identify labor supply responses with high...

This paper uses Bayesian VAR Analysis to empirically evaluate the relationship between the deviations of the real effective exchange rate from its equilibrium and Jamaica's GDP (and its components) over the period 1998 to 2021. The paper finds that an appreciation in the real exchange rate is...

Should government services be counted in GDP? In this paper, we argue that this is the wrong question. The more relevant question is: what do government services allow us to capture about economic well-being? By construction, counting government spending at cost as part of GDP turns it into an...

This study examines the interactions among the oil price, Government expenditure, money supply, real effective exchange rate, and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) across Malaysia's finance, retail and wholesale, manufacturing, agriculture and overall sectors by using a Structural Vector...

Prior studies assessing welfare across countries have utilised measures that combine country-level outcomes in income and life expectancy (or average lifespan). However, this perspective remains blind to the fact that two countries may have the same life expectancy or average income but very...

This paper describes the recent work to strengthen the nowcasting capacity at the Central Bank of Samoa (CBS). It compiles available high-frequency datasets such as tourism receipts, agriculture market survey, remittances, among others, to nowcast real GDP in Samoa. Nowcasting enables the...

In response to a request from Saint Lucia's Central Statistics Office (CSO), a technical assistance (TA) mission was conducted from September 2-13, 2024, to support the development of experimental expenditure-based GDP (GDP-E) estimates as a complementary product to the existing production-based...

The Bahamas is highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change, including gradual sea level rise, biodiversity loss, and intensifying hurricanes. Together, these challenges threaten to undermine the country's potential output over the long term by inflicting damages to physical assets and...