Purpose - Developing price forecasts for various agricultural commodities has long been a significant undertaking for a variety of agricultural market players. The weekly wholesale price of edible oil in the Chinese market over a ten-year period, from January 1, 2010 to January 3, 2020, is the...

Recent empirical studies document that the distribution of earnings changes displays substantial deviations from lognormality: in particular, earnings changes are negatively skewed with extremely high kurtosis (long and thick tails), and these non-Gaussian features vary substantially both over...

The correct modeling of the interest rates term structure should definitely be considered an aspect of primary importance since the forward rates and the discount factors used in any financial and risk analysis are calculated from such structure. The turbulence of the markets in recent years,...

The real estate market in China has been growing rapidly during the past decade, with different property price patterns across various regions. Among different types of properties, prices of retail properties have not been sufficiently analyzed. This study focuses on forecasting problems of...

Machine learning (ML) is a novel method that has applications in asset pricing and that fits well within the problem of measurement in economics. Unlike econometrics, ML models are not designed for parameter estimation and inference, but similar to econometrics, they address, and may be better...

Large scale, computationally expensive simulation models pose a particular challenge when it comes to estimating their parameters from empirical data. Most simulation models do not possess closed form expressions for their likelihood function, requiring the use of simulation-based inference,...

This article examines the spatially varying effect of age on single-family house (SFH) prices. Age has been shown to be a key driver for house depreciation and is usually associated with a negative price effect. In practice, however, there exist deviations from this behavior which are referred...

We introduce an ensemble learning method based on Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) for predicting conditional expected stock returns given stock-level and macro-economic information. Our ensemble learning approach significantly reduces the computational complexity inherent in GPR inference and...

This article examines the spatially varying effect of age on single-family house (SFH) prices. Age has been shown to be a key driver for house depreciation and is usually associated with a negative price effect. In practice, however, there exist deviations from this behavior which are referred...

We derive a new cost of information in rational inattention problems, the neighborhood-based cost functions, starting from the observation that many settings involve exogenous states with a topological structure. These cost functions are uniformly posterior-separable and capture notions of...

Large scale, computationally expensive simulation models pose a particular challenge when it comes to estimating their parameters from empirical data. Most simulation models do not possess closed form expressions for their likelihood function, requiring the use of simulation-based inference,...

Machine learning (ML) is a novel method that has applications in asset pricing and that fits well within the problem of measurement in economics. Unlike econometrics, ML models are not designed for parameter estimation and inference, but similar to econometrics, they address, and may be better...

Recent empirical studies document that the distribution of earnings changes displays substantial deviations from lognormality: in particular, earnings changes are negatively skewed with extremely high kurtosis (long and thick tails), and these non-Gaussian features vary substantially both over...

This article describes the techniques employed in the production of a synthetic dataset of driver telematics emulated from a similar real insurance dataset. The synthetic dataset generated has 100,000 policies that included observations regarding driver's claims experience, together with...

This article describes the techniques employed in the production of a synthetic dataset of driver telematics emulated from a similar real insurance dataset. The synthetic dataset generated has 100,000 policies that included observations regarding driver's claims experience, together with...

In this paper, we derive new, nearly optimal bounds for the Gaussian approximation to scaled averages of n independent high-dimensional centered random vectors X1, . . . , Xn over the class of rectangles in the case when the covariance matrix of the scaled average is non-degenerate. In the case...

We consider nonparametric estimation of a distribution function when data are collected from multiple overlapping data sources. Main statistical challenges include (1) heterogeneity of data sets, (2) unidentified duplicated records across data sets, and (3) dependence due to sampling without...

The latest financial crisis has stressed the need of understanding the world financial system as a network of interconnected institutions, where financial linkages play a fundamental role in the spread of systemic risks. In this paper we propose to enrich the topological perspective of network...

We propose a new measure of the cost of information structures in rational inattention problems, the "neighborhood-based" cost functions, given that many applications involve states with a topological structure. These cost functions summarize the results of a sequential information sampling...

We consider nonparametric estimation of a distribution function when data are collected from multiple overlapping data sources. Main statistical challenges include (1) heterogeneity of data sets, (2) unidentified duplicated records across data sets, and (3) dependence due to sampling without...

Calibration is a highly challenging task, in particular in multiple yield curve markets. This paper is a first attempt to study the chances and challenges of the application of machine learning techniques for this. We employ Gaussian process regression, a machine learning methodology having many...

In the last five years, the financial industry has been impacted by the emergence of digitalization and machine learning. In this article, we explore two methods that have undergone rapid development in recent years: Gaussian processes and Bayesian optimization. Gaussian processes can be seen as...

One innovation defined in the new market risk rules by the Fundamental Review of the Trading Book (FRTB) is the Non-Modellable Risk Factor (NMRF) framework. This new concept introduces a methodology to differentiate between modellable and non-modellable risk factors in the Internal Models...

Graphical models have become a very popular tool for representing dependencies within a large set of variables and are key for representing causal structures. We provide results for uniform inference on high-dimensional graphical models with the number of target parameters d being possible much...