We use nearly a decade's worth of panel data from European Union Chamber of Commerce in China business confidence surveys to analyse the deteriorating outlooks of EU firms in China from 2017 to 2025. All firms in China currently face challenges including slow profit growth and deflation. These...

This Policy Brief explores the potential impact of forming a customs union between the European Union (EU) and key global partners (e.g. Canada, the UK, Mexico and Japan) as a strategic response to U.S. President Donald Trump's threatened tariffs. Using the GSIM partial equilibrium model, the...

In sheer quantity, the five original BRICS countries appear impressive. They account for a substantial share of the world's population, economy, trade and muster large militaries. In January 2024, BRICS gained even more steam, by admitting four new member states that participated in the most...

We investigate the macroeconomic effects of two recent major geopolitical events on the euro area economy, namely, the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas war and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. To take into account the heterogeneity of geopolitical events, we do not seek to identify a homogeneous...

Greater Asia is emerging as a major factor in the global energy transition. This shift is associated with growing independence from external actors such as the European Union and the United States, with unfolding developments increasingly concentrated within the region itself. Key trends include...

We review the literature on geoeconomics, defined as the field of study that links economics and geopolitics (power rivalry). We describe what geoeconomics is and which questions it addresses, focusing on five main subfields. First, the use of geoeconomic policy tools such as sanctions and...

The space sector has remained central to geopolitics since the end of the Cold War, leading to an increase in national space spending worldwide. This study investigates how public support for space funding is influenced by information about (i) national space spending, (ii) the spending of...

Using novel scenario-based survey questions that randomize the expected duration of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and Middle East conflict, we examine the causal impact of geopolitical risk on consumers’ beliefs about aggregate economic conditions and their own financial outlook. Expecting a...

This paper revisits the relationship between international trade, trade policy, and development in light of the structural, policy, and geopolitical shifts that have transformed globalization over the past decade. While trade has historically supported development through both static and dynamic...

We review the literature on the political economy of foreign aid, examining the geopolitical returns generated by Official Development Assistance (ODA). Our paper identifies conditions under which donors are able to influence political and economic outcomes in recipient countries, shape their...

The world is falling behind on the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), a situation exacerbated by recent geopolitical disruptions and challenges to international cooperation. This policy brief, based on a virtual roundtable in the context of the Hamburg Sustainability Conference (HSC) with...

The pandemic and the last years' geopolitical disruptions have laid bare the vulnerability of Europe's supply chains, as well as the challenges posed by insecure oil and gas supplies. In this contribution, we aim to add to this debate by raising awareness of the vulnerability of trade and supply...

Rare earth elements (REEs) are critical for Europe's economic competitiveness, green transition, and national security. Yet the EU remains heavily dependent on China for their supply, particularly in refining and processing. This paper examines Europe's vulnerability to supply disruptions and...

This study examines the interplay between Asia-Pacific geopolitics and the Philippines' critical industries, focusing on telecommunications, energy, mining, and digital infrastructure. Utilizing a Philippine-centric lens, it explores how geopolitical tensions, particularly between the U.S. and...

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations is considered as one of the successful regional cooperations and has played a remarkable role in regional, and potentially global, order through its principles of consensus, non-interference, and peaceful resolution of conflicts, providing platform for...

We review the literature on geoeconomics, defined as the field of study that links economics and geopolitics (power rivalry). We describe what geoeconomics is and which questions it addresses, focusing on five main subfields. First, the use of geoeconomic policy tools such as sanctions and...

Rising trade tensions, a spate of trade-inhibiting policy measures and a weakening of multilateral institutions have sparked a growing concern about the potential implications of global trade fragmentation. Yet, empirical evidence that geopolitical considerations are already materially affecting...

Conditionality was a central concern in the development literature of the 1990s. With the massive expansion of targeted public support to private firms since the Great Financial Crisis, the question of conditionality is once again at the center of industrial policy debates. Despite the growing...

Based on granular data at the product level, this paper looks at whether and how the euro area and the United States have modified their import sourcing strategies since 2016, the role played by geopolitical tensions and the potential impact on import prices. It considers two different, but not...

The competition for carbon capture, storage, and utilisation is intensifying. Historically dominated by North America, the lead in this technology is now being seized by key players across Asia - reaching from Saudi Arabia to Japan. Unlike traditional energy (transition) geopolitics, this new...

Over the past ten years, and without a lot of public or political attention, space has become a site of commercial investment and development. Already much in our daily lives depends on growing satellite systems, crowding Earth's orbit, for communication, navigation, weather information, and the...

There is a widespread perception these years that strongmen around the world are winning, posing new geopolitical challenges and threats to the Western liberal order and security architecture. This DIIS Report takes a closer look at one of these strongmen, Turkey's Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The...

"This policy brief provides an overview and assessments of debates on development policy. In view of changing international contexts, it addresses the need to reorient German development policy in the long term and initiate reforms. Five recommendations for decision-makers are formulated: 1....

In an era of multiple crises and geopolitical uncertainty, the need to deal with heightened risk drives states to locate strategic global production networks (GPNs) in geopolitically aligned states, a trend known as friendshoring. In this paper, we contribute to the literature on the role of...

Connectivity, especially in the transport sector, has become a ubiquitous issue in the South Caucasus in recent years. Transport connectivity also plays a central role in the European Union’s policy towards the region. As part of its Global Gateway Initiative, the EU has made a commitment that...

Drawing on global media reports, we conduct a sentiment analysis of the image of China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the evolution of its image over time. Our main finding is that perceptions of the initiative deteriorated significantly in many geographies from 2017 to 2022. The notable...