While the environmental consequences of geopolitical tensions have received growing academic attention, little is known about how these dynamics manifest in the Middle East and Africa (MEA)-a region both environmentally vulnerable and geopolitically fragile. Even less is understood about how...

We present the first systematic analysis of how countries cover each other in the news, using a newly constructed dataset of 55,240 media sources from 176 countries between 2015 and 2022, drawing upon a corpus of 1.4 billion online news articles. We document a pattern of global media bias:...

This study examines the economic and environmental impacts of fossil fuel subsidies in the European Union (EU) during the energy crisis triggered by the 2022 Ukraine war, focusing on their implications for corporate performance and sustainability. Using a panel dataset of 100 publicly listed...

Central Asia has emerged as a key region where the convergence of geopolitics and development cooperation is most visible. Major powers are redefining their approaches: Japan combines official development assistance (ODA) with commercial partnerships to advance connectivity and reform; the EU is...

Geoeconomic fragmentation - the phenomenon of international transactions being increasingly restricted to politically aligned partners - creates risks for individual countries but also opportunities that some hope to seize by becoming "connector" countries. We modify a standard trade model by...

This paper draws on trade data, academic literature, government reports, and policy documents to contextualize historic trade dynamics and trace the buildup to recent disputes. Using a comparative framework, we analyze how Sino-U.S. and Sino-Canada relations have shaped and continue to shape...

Competitiveness has returned to the fore of European economic policymaking with a vengeance. In this paper, we scrutinize the recent debate on the need for promoting European competitiveness, as prominently diagnosed by the Draghi Report. By disaggregating the overall academic and...

The evolving geopolitical landscape has placed South Africa at a crossroads, torn between its historical ties to the West and its growing relationships with BRICS+ nations, particularly China and Russia. The country's recent political shift, marked by the African National Congress (ANC) losing...

Hybrid threats encompass a range of hostile activities aimed at achieving geopolitical objectives, including cyberattacks, infrastructure sabotage, espionage, economic and political coercion, disinformation, and other forms of hybrid warfare. We construct a Geopolitical Hybrid Threat (GHT) index...

We develop a novel instrumental variable to identify geopolitical oil price shocks arising around significant geopolitical tensions and examine their transmission to the global oil market, key U.S. macroeconomic aggregates, and cross-border spillover effects on other commodity markets, output,...

This paper examines the connection between Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) factors and the risk of geopolitics, as defined by the Geopolitical Risk (GPR) index. The concept of geopolitical risk is conventionally defined as the direct result of political incidents, war, and...

This study examines the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on crude oil tail risk using the Conditional Autoregressive Value at Risk (CAViaR) framework. We analyzed 2364 daily observations of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures spanning 1 January 2015 to 11 December 2023, thereby...

Conventional wisdom holds that American material superiority leaves Europe with little room for manoeuvre. We dispute this. Raw power is not leverage. Leverage arises from asymmetric dependencies—the capacity to impose costs without incurring proportionate harm. Examining macroeconomic ties,...

This paper constructs a novel firm-level measure of geopolitical risk using textual analysis of 130,061 earnings conference call transcripts and examines its impact on firms' reliance on bank-based financing. Using a panel of 4,692 listed firms across 38 countries over 2005-2024, we find that...

How do geopolitical factors ripple through the European sovereign bond yields? And does this effect differ between Eastern and Western European markets? These two crucial, but not yet fully answered questions motivated us to investigate the link between geopolitical factors and sovereign bond...

This study investigates the impacts of geopolitical risks on corporate leverage decisions of Vietnamese listed firms from 2017 to 2024. The research findings reveal a negative impact of geopolitical risks on both corporate leverage and short-term leverage. That is, Vietnamese listed firms...

Nach der Erholung vom Pandemie-Schock, der das Wirtschaftsleben in den Jahren 2020 und 2021 stark beeinträchtigte, kommen die wirtschaftlichen Aktivitäten in Deutschland nunmehr seit drei Jahren nicht mehr über das Niveau des Jahres 2019 hinaus. In dem vorliegenden Beitrag wird eine...

Die Weltwirtschaft steht im Frühjahr 2025 im Zeichen sich tiefgreifend ändernder geopolitischer und wirtschafts- politischer Rahmenbedingungen. Vor dem Hintergrund des Politikwechsels in den USA sind insbesondere in Europa, aber nicht nur dort, neue sicherheitspolitische Herausforderungen...

The security situation in Europe and Germany has fundamentally changed, particularly due to Russia's war of aggression and the declining reliability of transatlantic security guarantees. At the same time, the global race for technological supremacy is intensifying. Germany must now initiate a...

In just a few short months, the new government administration in the United States has thrown the world order into disarray. A potential global trade war, new global value chain configurations and shifting security alliances are reshaping geopolitics. Given the current uncertainty, access to...