The paper analyzes the recent growth dynamics in China, evaluating both cyclical positions and long-term growth prospects. The analysis shows that financial cycles play a more important role than traditional inflation-based cycles in shaping the dynamics of growth. Currently, the...

Cover -- Contents -- I. Introduction -- II. An Empirical Approach Using Multivariate Filtering -- III. A Structural Approach to Estimating Potential Output -- IV. Conclusions -- REFERENCES -- FIGURES -- 1. Euro Area: Output Gaps from a MVF Model -- 2. Euro Area:...

We estimate the People's Republic of China's (PRC's potential growth rate in 2012 at 8.7% and at 9.2% for the average of 2008–2012, about the same as the average actual growth rate for this period. This rate is the natural growth rate, that is, the rate consistent with a constant unemployment...

The world's trade landscape is being shaped by global value chains, which present new opportunities as well as challenges to developing countries. While large developing countries are leveraging the benefits of global value chains, smaller economies have been less successful. In this paper we...