We develop a statistical-methodological framework for a set of core commercial real estate market indicators, which consists of a market price index, a gross rent index, and a net rental yield index as well a vacancy rate. We argue that the indicators should be (macro-)consistent, meaning that...

The value of the Danish commercial real estate market is large and developments within this market can have widespread implications for the financial system and the real economy. This memo provides an overview of the Danish commercial real estate market. It maps the stock of Danish commercial...

Die Etablierung von Homeoffice und hybriden Arbeitsmodellen veranlasst Unternehmen, ihre Bürokonzepte anzupassen, und hat damit erhebliche Auswirkungen auf den Büromarkt. Unsere Studie zeigt, dass Unternehmen ihre Flächen verkleinern, auf Desksharing setzen und Besprechungs- sowie...

We study the credit risk of banks in Germany from lending to non-financial firms. We model changes in Expected Credit Loss, which is derived from the guidelines in the IFRS 9 accounting standard. We map the accounting model to a dataset with individual loans as the unit of observation...

We apply the growth-at-risk model of Adrian et al. (2019) to the German commercial real estate (CRE) market. We derive a distribution for CRE price growth four quarters ahead conditional on macro-financial variables. This approach allows us to make probability statements about the downside risk...

Following post-pandemic tightening of monetary policy in advanced economies, commercial real estate (CRE) markets have been under pressure globally, including in Germany. This paper explores the channels of CRE impact for the German financial sector, and the potential size of impact for...

The value of the Danish commercial real estate market is large and developments within this market can have widespread implications for the financial system and the real economy. This memo provides an overview of the Danish commercial real estate market. It maps the stock of Danish commercial...

This study provides direct evidence of the value to banks arising from relationship lending by estimating the market premium placed on banking organizations' small business loan portfolios. Using data from the small business loan survey contained in the June bank Call Reports, we find that small...

We show that banks "extended-and-pretended" their impaired CRE mortgages in the post-pandemic period to avoid writing off their capital, leading to credit misallocation and a buildup of financial fragility. We detect this behavior using loan-level supervisory data on maturity extensions, bank...

Die Etablierung von Homeoffice und hybriden Arbeitsmodellen veranlasst Unternehmen, ihre Bürokonzepte anzupassen, und hat damit erhebliche Auswirkungen auf den Büromarkt. Unsere Studie zeigt, dass Unternehmen ihre Flächen verkleinern, auf Desksharing setzen und Besprechungs- sowie...

This paper uncovers if and how insurance companies react to shocks to collateral in their portfolio of securitized assets. We address this question in the context of commercial real estate cash flow shocks, which are informationally opaque to holders of commercial mortgage-backed securities...

This paper uncovers if and how insurance companies react to shocks to collateral in their portfolio of securitized assets. We address this question in the context of commercial real estate cash flow shocks, which are informationally opaque to holders of commercial mortgage-backed securities...

Economic uncertainty has steadily increased in response to a series of unforeseen shocks, notably the Global Financial Crisis, Brexit, COVID-19, and the Russia-Ukraine war. This study examined the impact of economic uncertainty on rents and capital values in Australia's office, retail, and...

The building sector plays a crucial role in the worldwide shift toward achieving net-zero emissions. Building energy efficiency standards (BEESs) are highly effective policies for reducing carbon emissions. Therefore, exploring the provincial variations in carbon emission efficiency (CEE) in the...

Norwegian banks have substantial exposures to commercial real estate (CRE), and developments in the industry are important for financial stability. Higher financing costs, falling CRE prices and a large amount of bond debt maturing in the coming years have increased the refinancing risk...

Die Gewerbeimmobilienmärkte stehen angesichts der konjunkturellen Lage, aber auch angesichts struktureller Umbrüche vor großen Herausforderungen. Vor diesem Hintergrund wird in dem vorliegenden Report die Mietpreisentwicklung bei Einzelhandels- und Büroobjekten untersucht. Betrachtet wird...

The conversion of brown office buildings to green apartments can contribute towards a solution to three pressing issues: oversupply of office in a hybrid-and-remote-work world, shortage of housing, and excessive greenhouse gas emissions. We propose a set of criteria to identify commercial office...

Any corporate investment decision is highly dependent on the corporate internal cash flow and is quite sensitive to the variance of cash flow uncertainty. This paper empirically examines the association between cash flow uncertainty, state ownership and corporate real estate holding using the...

Urban street-level greenery is empirically documented to improve mental and physical health, increase productivity, increase urban environmental equality and reduce carbon footprints. In addition, these benefits raise residents' welfare, which has been correlated with increases in residential...

This study analyzes how lease expirations affect the performance of commercial real estate (CRE) properties and how these patterns changed during the COVID-19 crisis. Even before the pandemic, lease expirations were associated with a notable increase in the downside risk to a property's...