Geopolitical conflicts generate macroeconomic spillovers that extend beyond directly affected countries through trade and commodity linkages. This paper quantifies these effects for Germany, France, Italy, and Spain using a monthly Trade-Related Conflict Exposure (TRCE) index for 2009–2023...

This paper examines how logistics performance conditions the relationship between trade openness, economic growth and per capita CO₂ emissions in Mediterranean economies. Using an unbalanced panel of 20 countries over the period 2007-2022, we combine static fixed-effects, dynamic panel...

Vietnam's wooden forest products industry is an important export sector, contributing to industrial growth and employment. However, it is facing increasing pressures related to challenges such as forest and export sustainability. Despite its potential, Vietnam's export performance remains uneven...

Global trade flows and supply chains adjust gradually. Empirical estimates of the trade elasticity for the short run are a fraction of those for the long run and suggest that trade is subject to substantive dynamic frictions. We develop a tractable framework that provides microfoundations for...

This study examines the short-run dynamics and long-run determinants of bilateral trade between Saudi Arabia (KSA) and Jordan during the period of 1995-2024 using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach. Employing a country-pair time series framework, the analysis...

This paper presents a method for estimating treatment effects of local climate shocks when regions trade with each other. Because trade creates spillovers, comparing the change in outcomes of regions with different exposure to shocks leads to biased estimates. We model these between-region...

This paper provides a historical perspective on comparatively low levels of trade in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, focusing on studies addressing the impact of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Our literature review identifies best practices and reviews trade potential...

The rapid expansion of the digital economy is reshaping the global production and trade system, bringing new opportunities for developing economies seeking to enhance their international competitiveness, while also posing structural challenges. This study focuses on China, a typical emerging...

This paper reexamines the trade creation effects of migration using a large sample of 180 countries from 1995 to 2023. We estimate a structural gravity model of bilateral trade augmented with migration stocks, investigating whether immigration to OECD countries relates to the extensive and...

This paper provides the first causal estimate of the economic impact of interlinking payment systems across countries. We exploit a new dataset of payment systems interlinking initiatives, which identifies over 2,000 connections, and employ standard gravity methods to estimate their impact on...

In this paper we explain and review the Decision Support Model (DSM) methodology, for planning and assessing export promotion activities. This model was first presented in the International Journal of Research in Marketing in 1995 by Cuyvers et al. (1995) and applied to the case of Belgium. We...

This paper shows that immigrants not only have differential effects on trade based on their skill levels but that they play an additional role in facilitating bilateral trade if their origin country has a higher level of corruption and weaker institutions. Using immigrant stock across skill...

Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has triggered profound structural changes in the country's economy, reshaping patterns of foreign trade, foreign direct investment and sectoral specialisation. This paper analyses the shifts in Ukraine's trade and investment structures...

Debates on the EU's economy focus on the competitiveness gap, a narrative that encourages export-first policies. This is the wrong focus, as prosperity depends mainly on domestic productivity. Therefore, the EU's key challenges are weak productivity and, more recently, economic security. Trade...

Letters of credit are a key trade finance instrument that covers more than 10 percent of global trade, with a notably larger role in low-and middle-income economies. Studying detailed trade data from Viet Nam, we document how letter of credit use varies with firm characteristics. We show that...

Global growth is projected at 3.3 percent for 2026 and 3.2 percent for 2027, revised slightly up since the October 2025 World Economic Outlook. Technology investment, fiscal and monetary support, accommodative financial conditions, and private sector adaptability offset trade policy shifts....

The EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) came into force on 1 October 2023, introducing reporting requirements for importers of covered products and, from 2026, an obligation to pay a fee on the carbon content of imported goods. This paper uses indices of ad valorem tariffs to assess the...

After nearly two decades of intermittent negotiations, the EU and India announced the conclusion of a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) at their summit in New Delhi on 27 January 2026. This paper analyses the geo-political and geo-economic drivers behind the agreement, its principal features and its...

As countries in Asia and the Pacific continue to integrate into the global economy, what are the implications for women's labor market participation in these countries? The literature on international trade considers the effects of import competition and export orientation on gender gaps in...

This study examines the evolution, heterogeneity, and short-term prospects of export performance in seven Central and Eastern European (CEE) economies-Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, and Slovakia-over the period 1995-2024. Using annual World Bank data, exports are...

In 2024, new members joined the original BRICS countries, reinforcing their aspirations as a relevant global actor. This study examines Latin American countries' export structures orientation towards BRICS versus G7 markets. Using a unique dataset and a structural gravity model, we estimate the...

Foreword -- Preface -- Executive Summary -- Session 1: Energy, Climate, Growth -- Chair: Jayant Sinha -- Speakers: Jessica Seddon, Robert Stavins, Arunabha Ghosh -- Session 2: Technology, Policy, Jobs -- Chair: Sachin Chaturvedi -- Speakers: Paul Samson, Albert van Jaarsveld, Debjani Ghosh --...