This paper makes the case for measuring economic activity in real time in a middle-income setting using indicators alternative to the standard System of National Accounts measure of gross domestic product (GDP). GDP remains indispensable, yet its limits as a welfare proxy are amplified where...

Forecasts that minimize mean squared forecast error (MSE) often exhibit excessive volatility, limiting their practical applicability. We address this accuracy smoothness trade-off by introducing a Multivariate Smooth Sign Accuracy (M-SSA) framework, which extracts smoothed components from...

Moving beyond Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as the sole measure of economic performance is increasingly critical for addressing the complex challenges of sustainable development. The Inclusive Wealth Index (IWI) offers a more comprehensive framework for assessing long-term sustainability by...

Iceland continues to face CO₂ emission challenges despite its near-total reliance on renewable energy. This study analyzes the effects of GDP per capita, renewable energy consumption (RENC), foreign direct investment (FDI), and urbanization on CO2 emissions from 1990 to 2023, using an ARDL...

This study aimed to forecast the gross domestic product (GDP) of the South Caucasian nations (Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia) by scrutinizing the accuracy of various econometric methodologies. This topic is noteworthy considering the significant economic development exhibited by these...

This study considers the nonlinear relationship between GDP growth and unemployment in France (1975-2024) using a logistic smooth transition regression (LSTR) model. Findings reveal a threshold unemployment rate of 7.93%, above which the traditional Okun's law holds (GDP growth reduces...

This study examines whether green growth and institutional quality index (i.e. anti-corruption, political stability, rule of law, voice and accountability, regulatory quality and government effectiveness) of selected 40 countries increase or reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from 2000 to...

This publication evaluates various real-time GDP nowcasting models for the euro area and six member countries (Belgium, Germany, Spain, France, Italy, and the Netherlands) using recent data from 2021 to 2024. It compares individual models and model averages at different estimation points,...

We estimate the effect of COVID-19 vaccination on economic growth in OECD countries using forecast errors in quarterly real GDP growth. These forecasts were published at the end of 2020, before vaccines were approved or widely anticipated, making them a credible benchmark to identify the...

Financial inclusion has recently emerged as an important pillar for sustainable economic growth, poverty eradication, and social transformation globally. While the effects of institutional quality on financial inclusion have been widely investigated, their long-term effects have largely been...

As sustainability challenges push economies into low-carbon transitions, the question arises of what share of GDP is exposed to transition? We develop a two-stage model to examine the share of GDP facing transition risk. The first stage examines which sectors are directly exposed to...

The South African government has faced a persistent struggle in reducing income inequality over the years, despite notable advancements in certain sectors, including the financial sector. This study examined the asymmetric impact of financial development on income inequality in South Africa...

This present study examines how commodity terms of trade (CTOT) influence economic performance in the proposed West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ) or non-UEMOA countries using data from 2000 to 2021. To make the assessment, PVAR, Granger causality and impulse-response functions analyses are...

Research background: Many people in Japan and other countries believe that national finances will not stand still and will go bankrupt if deficits continue at present level. It is like a religion. In this paper, however, we prove that this religion is wrong by using a simple mathematical model....

This paper uses Bayesian VAR Analysis to empirically evaluate the relationship between the deviations of the real effective exchange rate from its equilibrium and Jamaica's GDP (and its components) over the period 1998 to 2021. The paper finds that an appreciation in the real exchange rate is...

This paper describes a Growth-at-Risk (GaR) model of the Bundesbank for Germany. This model takes the form of a quantile regression that quantifies downside risk to German GDP growth associated with financial developments. A systematic comparison of diverse model specifications is performed to...

Should government services be counted in GDP? In this paper, we argue that this is the wrong question. The more relevant question is: what do government services allow us to capture about economic well-being? By construction, counting government spending at cost as part of GDP turns it into an...