We calibrate a lifecycle portfolio-choice model of homeowners facing uninsurable income risk to show that tax deductions for mortgage interest payments and voluntary pension contributions have sizable effects on household portfolios and macroprudential risks. The deductions reduce the after-tax...

We document that increases in property insurance premiums reduce mortgage originations. The effect is strongest for the rate refinancing and cash-out refinancing segments. We show that denials associated with increased premiums are significantly more likely attributed to high debt-to-income...

How borrowers respond to future changes in the interest rate on their debt matters for the transmission of monetary policy and for household financial stability. Combining bank data, a letter RCT, and a survey, we study this question in the context of the German mortgage market, where since 2022...

Macroprudential policies are a key policy tool for financial regulators, but concerns persist that these policies restrict access to homeownership. I examine this concern using crosscountry data on homeownership for 28 countries. I find little evidence that macroprudential policies reduce...

We study how China's loan‐to‐value (LTV) policy affects mortgage markets and household consumption, focusing on an abrupt and unprecedented relaxation in LTV limits for secondary houses from 2014Q4 to 2016Q3. Using a rich dataset of over three million loan‐level records from a major...

This study examines whether fintech lenders outperform traditional banks and non-fintech non-banks in risk assessment for U.S. 30-year fixed-rate conforming mortgages. Analyzing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans from Q1 2012 to Q1 2020 using ROC/AUC and risk-pricing regressions, we find fintech...

The commercial real estate (CRE) market is an important source of financial stability risks, yet ownership structures remain opaque. This paper uses comprehensive Finnish register data to construct firm-level ownership network and identify owners of CRE firms. We document that government...

In developed countries such as Spain, where the population is increasingly aging, retirement planning and longevity risk represent major societal challenges. In Spain, in particular, a significant proportion of household wealth is concentrated in real estate, primarily in the form of...

This study explores the housing distribution effect of the Housing Provident Fund (HPF) system on households. Utilizing data from the China Household Finance Survey conducted in 2013, 2015, 2017, and 2019, this study empirically investigates this effect from two dimensions: the impact of HPF...

In this analysis, an indicator to assess residential property prices in the Macedonian real estate market was developed by applying a macroprudential approach to analysing borrowing capacity. The indicator of household borrowing capacity is calculated as the ratio of the market value to the...

Using a granular database of variable rate euro area loans and analysing their defaults between 2014 and 2019, we show that the effect of interest rate changes on mortgage defaults is highly non-linear. First, we find that the risk associated with higher contemporaneous interest rates is...

This paper examines how structural change in labor markets affects household credit outcomes. Using a Shift-Share instrumental variable approach, we find that occupational shifts negatively influence mortgage holding for households facing favorable job market conditions, such as stable...

In dynamic models of asset markets with asymmetric information and endogenous screening, the anticipation of signaling through delayed sales incentivizes originators to exert greater effort ex ante. A central prediction in those models is a positive relationship between screening effort and the...

A recurring question in the mortgage default literature is why underwater default is rare relative to model predictions. We find that one answer is miscalibration of flow payoffs. We build a novel, detailed quantitative model of mortgage default and find that realistic rent dynamics plus mild...

We study real estate lending responses to tighter macroprudential policy (MPP) in the form of lower required loan-to-value (LTV) ratios. Contract details of 2.4 million mortgage loans originated between 2008 and 2020 reveal significantly fewer new loan issuances in response to contractionary...

I study how monetary policy interacts with mortgage underwriting standards in shaping tenure decisions and rental market equilibria. Using property-level data from the American Housing Survey, I show that the increase in mortgage rates between 2021 and 2023 pushed many potential first-time...

Many people forgo substantial economic gains by not responding to financial incentives, even in major decisions such as retirement savings and mortgage refinancing. But do the same people systematically fail to respond across financial contexts? We study this using a quasi-experimental setting...

Many people forgo substantial economic gains by not responding to financial incentives, even in major decisions such as retirement savings and mortgage refinancing. But do the same people systematically fail to respond across financial contexts? We study this using a quasi-experimental setting...

Using a monthly panel dataset of individuals' debt, we show that house price changes can explain a significant fraction of personal debt composition dynamics. We exploit the variation in local house price growth as shocks to homeowners' housing wealth to study the consequential adjustment of...

Housing and mortgage choices are among the largest financial decisions households make and they substantially impact households' liquidity. This paper explores how monetary policy affects aggregate demand by influencing these portfolio choices. To quantify this channel, I build a...