How would fundamental political change in Iran, leading to a democratic system with a free and rulesbased economic order, affect Germany and the EU economically? In the event of change, sanctions could be scaled back, allowing Iran to rejoin the global economy. This study quantifies the economic...

We combine the latest difference-in-differences estimators for treatments with exit and structural gravity literature to evaluate the effects of sanctions on trade, when they are in place and when they are lifted. Our analysis shows that sanctions reduce trade between senders and targets by 58%,...

Can government agencies in sanctioning countries deter their companies from violating laws that limit business transactions with sanctioned countries? To understand this issue, we study the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), which is the primary enforcer of sanctions in the United States....

We combine the latest difference-in-differences estimators for treatments with exit and structural gravity literature to evaluate the effects of sanctions on trade, when they are in place and when they are lifted. Our analysis shows that sanctions reduce trade between senders and targets by 58%,...

Economic sanctions have emerged as critical instruments of geopolitical strategy, with significant ramifications for global energy markets, innovation trajectories, and the transition to sustainable energy systems. This study offers a qualitative synthesis of literature and case studies spanning...

The arbitrary sanctioning of Russia by Europe and the United States in the context of the Russia-Ukraine war does not correspond to the definition of property rights as an aspect of juridical rights, and nor does the definition of proprietary rights or property rights in political economy accord...

This case analysis uses a crime script to understand the circumvention of sanctions on the supply of goods from the Netherlands to Russia. By analysing three court cases, news articles and five interviews with law enforcement officers, a crime script is created. Based on this crime script,...

Geopolitical risk (GPR) shocks that trigger the imposition of sanctions tend to lower output and raise inflation in the sanctioned country. We develop a three-equation small open economy New Keynesian model where GPR shocks are modeled as negative productivity shocks and sanctions manifest as...

How effective are trade sanctions? We study the unprecedented sanctions imposed on Russia following February 2022, when Western countries banned exports accounting for 36% of Russia's prewar import value. Combining novel, hand-collected records of these sanctions with Russian customs data, firm...

We examine impact of economic sanctions on Russian import prices using detailed data on other countries’ exports to Russia. We find that unit import prices of goods sanctioned by trading blocs such as the European Union have increased, often drastically, and even when imported to Russia from...

The aim of this study is to analyze the effects of terrorism on gender inequality in politics for a panel of 180 countries over the period 2000-2020. Using generalized method of moments in a system, the results obtained reveal that terrorism reduces women's political representation, thereby...

A major concern about the imposition of international sanctions is that they may permanently deteriorate the quality of institutions in target countries, potentially causing an increase in corruption. While case studies suggest that this is frequently the case, systematic evidence is so far...

Are sanctions bypassed by hiding money offshore? Using bilateral data on bank deposits, we compare how offshore deposits from sanctioned versus non-sanctioned countries develop after the U.S. and the EU impose financial sanctions. Sanctions targeting individuals increase offshore deposits, as...

We introduce political salience into a canonical model of attacks against political regimes, as scaling agents’ expressive payoffs from taking sides. Equilibrium balances heterogeneous expressive concerns with material bandwagoning incentives. We examine comparative statics in salience that...

Political scientists and economists often assert that they understand how economic sanctions function as a foreign policy tool and claim to have backed their theories with compelling statistical evidence. The research puzzle that this article addresses is the observation that despite almost four...

Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, reshaped the EU's security landscape, prompting sanctions aimed at weakening Russia's war capabilities. These sanctions also redefined the roles of public authorities and the private sector, introducing new challenges in a shifting geopolitical...

In line with Sustainable Development Goal 15, which focuses on life on land, protecting our planet for future generations becomes an imperative challenge. To address this, the present study examines the comparative efficiency of climate finance and environmental taxes in mitigating environmental...

Following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the US, EU, and likeminded countries swiftly imposed an expanded set of primary and secondary export restrictions on Russia. This paper assesses the effectiveness of those measures and their ongoing refinement and modification over time...

It is well-established that political leaders matter for domestic outcomes, but statistical evidence for their relevance in international politics is still scarce. Here, we ask whether the personal relationship between political leaders can change the propensity for nonviolent conflict between...

It is well-established that political leaders matter for domestic outcomes, but statistical evidence for their relevance in international politics is still scarce. Here, we ask whether the personal relationship between political leaders can change the propensity for nonviolent conflict between...

This study on enforcement procedures and sanctions in place in Member States for infringements and circumvention of the Regulation (EU) No. 1257/2013 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 20 November 2013 ("SRR" or "Regulation") on ship recycling aims at providing the European...

This study, based on national desk research, stakeholder interviews, and a participatory event, assesses the regulation and application of sanctions under the Racial Equality Directive (RED) and Employment Equality Directive (EED). The Study examines sanctions for discrimination on ethnic,...

Following more than twelve months' discussion in the Council, the European Union's Global Human Rights Sanctions Regime was adopted in December 2020 - a cause for celebration in the human rights community. Having been designed to address human rights violations as well as abuses and corruption...

Do trade dependencies leave countries vulnerable to geopolitical coercion? We study the economic costs of trade and financial sanctions, from 1920 to the present. We first develop a continuous measure of sanction intensity, using bilateral commodity-level data to calculate the importance of...

Geopolitical fragmentation triggers complex dynamics in international trade. This paper examines the effects of sanctions through the lens of a stylized model and the empirical analysis of Türkiye’s exports to Russia in the aftermath of Western measures imposed on Russia following its...

Three years of war, sanctions and Russia's isolation from the global community have changed its economy in many ways. Some changes such as the degraded business environment and increased government presence in the economy are likely to persist. War has also exacerbated Russia's already poor...

Geoeconomic pressure - the use of existing economic relationships by governments to achieve geopolitical or economic ends - has become a prominent feature of global power dynamics. This paper introduces a methodology using large language models (LLMs) to systematically extract signals of...