We review the literature on geoeconomics, defined as the field of study that links economics and geopolitics (power rivalry). We describe what geoeconomics is and which questions it addresses, focusing on five main subfields. First, the use of geoeconomic policy tools such as sanctions and...

Russia's war of aggression, which has brought wide destruction and loss to Ukraine, has also transformed the Russian economy in significant ways. The Russian government's role in the economy has grown, with an ever-increasing amount of economic resources allocated to the war effort. The...

Three years of war, sanctions and Russia's isolation from the global community have changed its economy in many ways. Some changes such as the degraded business environment and increased government presence in the economy are likely to persist. War has also exacerbated Russia's already poor...

Geoeconomic pressure - the use of existing economic relationships by governments to achieve geopolitical or economic ends - has become a prominent feature of global power dynamics. This paper introduces a methodology using large language models (LLMs) to systematically extract signals of...

This paper examines the growth of military production in Russia since the onset of the war against Ukraine in February 2022. Utilizing official data from Rosstat, the study explores how military production is classified within Russian industrial output statistics. The analysis reveals...

This Policy Brief examines the economic well-being of Russian households in the wake of warrelated sanctions, leveraging ten years of data from the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS). Building on macroeconomic indicators suggesting resilience, we analyze subjective wellbeing,...

This study investigates the impact of US political sanctions on the earnings management practices of Iranian listed firms. Employing a difference-in-differences methodology and utilizing empirical data from 2013 to 2022, the study demonstrates that sanctions do not significantly influence...

We examine the rise of dark shipping – oil tankers disabling AIS transceivers to evade detection – amid Western sanctions on Iran, Syria, North Korea, Venezuela, and Russia. Using a machine learning-based ship clustering model, we track dark-shipped crude oil trade flows worldwide and detect...

To reduce funds for Russia’s Ukraine invasion, Western governments imposed a price ceiling on Russian seaborne oil exports using Western services. To sell above that ceiling, Russia developed a “shadow fleet” which uses no such services. We use a calibrated model driven by this fleet’s...

Following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the US, EU, and likeminded countries swiftly imposed an expanded set of primary and secondary export restrictions on Russia. This paper assesses the effectiveness of those measures and their ongoing refinement and modification over time...

The Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 led to unprecedented sanctions aimed at denying Russia access to critical technologies essential for sustaining its war efforts. This paper examines whether trade sanctions targeting military goods were undermined by evasion, specifically through...

This study investigates the impact of U.S. economic sanctions on internal instability and conflict using a global sample. Our analysis, which includes cross-country and panel data from over 120 countries between 1996 and 2022, shows that economic sanctions increase the risk of internal conflict...

The paper discusses whether US dollar based financial sanctions will undermine the dollar's dominant international role. Despite long-standing attempts to reduce the role of the dollar, these have had limited success so far. I discuss why this is the case and why alternatives to the dollar are...

It is well-established that political leaders matter for domestic outcomes, but statistical evidence for their relevance in international politics is still scarce. Here, we ask whether the personal relationship between political leaders can change the propensity for nonviolent conflict between...

It is well-established that political leaders matter for domestic outcomes, but statistical evidence for their relevance in international politics is still scarce. Here, we ask whether the personal relationship between political leaders can change the propensity for nonviolent conflict between...

The cases presented in this report are based on the EUAA Case Law Database, which contains summaries of decisions and judgments related to international protection pronounced by national courts of EU+ countries, the Court of Justice of the EU (CJEU) and the European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR).

Economic sanctions significantly influence stock market capitalization and have critical implications for the national economy. This study investigates the impact of economic sanctions on stock market capitalization, focusing on the roles of national reserves and financial market access in...

This study investigates the case of Iran to evaluate how changes in the intensity of international sanctions affect internal conflict in the target country. Estimating a vector autoregressive model for the period between 2001q2 and 2020q3 with quarterly data on internal conflict and its three...

The remarkable increase in the use of economic sanctions as a coercive tool of foreign policy over the past quarter century has been accompanied by an equally rapid growth in the number of academic and policy studies, which most often aim at quantifying the economic effects of sanctions and/or...

In response to the unprovoked and unjustified military aggression against Ukraine, the EU has imposed unprecedented sanctions against Russia, designed to: reduce the Kremlin's ability to finance the war; impose clear economic and political costs on Russia's political elite; diminish Russia's...

The prospects for the Russian economy for the medium to long term are bleak. Russia is now a war economy, internationally isolated, over‑reliant on state support, and more dependent than ever on energy resources and on the import of technology from China.

In response to the unprovoked and unjustified military aggression against Ukraine, the EU has put in place unprecedented sanctions against Russia, designed to: reduce the Kremlin's ability to finance the war; impose clear economic and political costs on Russia's political elite; diminish Russia's...

Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, Turkey has adeptly navigated a balancing act between Russia and the West, leveraging its position as a credible mediator. However, Turkey's geo-economic vulnerabilities and strong economic ties with the West have made this approach untenable,...