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Collective decisions under uncertainty : efficiency, ex-ante fairness, and normalization

Kurata, Leo; Nakamura, Kensei - 2026 - Shared: January 15, 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015564571

Compressed beliefs

Zihlmann, Christian - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015613884

Consistency in collective decision-making under uncertainty : an axiomatic approach

Gonzalez, Stéphane; Huynh, Le-Nhat-Linh - 2026 - Version of February 3, 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015614301

Disasters, ambiguity, and crash betas

Meyerheim, Gerrit - 2026 - Original Version: October 2025, This Version: March 2026

This paper develops a tractable consumption-based asset-pricing model in an i.i.d. economy that combines rare consumption disasters with ambiguity aversion implemented as a one-period entropic tilt under CRRA utility. Closed-form expressions for the risk-free rate, equity return moments, and the...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015614347

Decision rules in choice under risk

Seror, Avner - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015614357

Behavioral attenuation

Enke, Benjamin; Graeber, Thomas; Oprea, Ryan; Yang, Jeffrey - 2026

We report the results of over 30 experiments to study the elasticity of economic decisions with respect to fundamentals. Our experiments cover a broad range of domains, from choice and valuation to belief formation, from strategic games to generic optimization problems, involving investment,...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015614359

Mathematical foundations of health economics : Arrow, Garber, and the economics of medical uncertainty

Ryłow, Jakub - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015616232

Ambiguity-averse aggregation under heterogeneous beliefs

Norman, Thomas W. L. - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015594827

Fat-tailed distribution under the smooth ambiguity model

Osei, Prince - 2026

We study the ambiguity-adjusted return distribution induced by an investor with smooth ambiguity preferences 'a la Klibano! et al. (2005), who faces uncertainty about the variance of asset returns. The variance uncertainty is modeled using a gamma distribution, a second-order prior over the...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015594918

Multi-criteria ordinal hierarchical classification to improve energy investment decisions

Diaz Robles, Raymundo; Granados Montelongo, Juan Antonio; … - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015620384

Monetary policy under high uncertainty : the option value of waiting

Wang, Haobin; Allen Ng - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015624533

Effects of price path shapes and decision frames on emotions and investment decisions : experimental evidence

Cordes, Henning; Decke, Philipp; Nolte, Sven; … - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015626639

Subjective uncertainty and the marginal propensity to consume

Koşar, Gizem; Melcangi, Davide - 2026

Earnings uncertainty is central to most heterogeneous-household models. Yet, there is little evidence on how subjective uncertainty, the uncertainty individuals actually perceive, is related to consumption behavior. Using unique data from the Survey of Consumer Expectations, we show that the...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015638547

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Subjective uncertainty and the marginal propensity to consume

Koşar, Gizem; Melcangi, Davide - 2025

Book / Working Paper

Bayesian Panel Variable Selection under model uncertainty for high-dimensional data

Pathairat Pastpipatkul; Htwe Ko - 2026

Selecting the relevant covariates in high-dimensional panel data remains a central challenge in applied econometrics. Conventional fixed effects and random effects models are not designed for systematic variable selection under model uncertainty. In addition, many existing models such as LASSO...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015640470

A risk-averse multi-objective analytics framework for green supply chain design under uncertainty

Ghorbani, Shahryar; Nematian, Javad; Yıldırım, Figen; … - 2026

In response to increasing concerns about environmental issues, businesses, and industries face pressure to mitigate their negative environmental impacts. Consequently, firms must reevaluate their operations to align with environmental standards. To address both economic and environmental...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015640953

The value of reliable statistics

Bloom, Nicholas; Groshen, Erica L.; Hobbs, Duncan R.; … - 2026

On August 1, 2025, President Trump fired the head of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and claimed that the agency's data were "rigged." In the aftermath, measures of economic policy uncertainty rose sharply, consistent with the idea that reduced trust in official data increases...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015641440

Protocolo del "momento basta" : arquitectura del cierre deliberativo en la alta dirección

Del Vecchio, Fernando - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015644056

Effectuation in action : how pre-commitments drive international performance

Alinasab, Jamshid; Mather, Damien; Parackal, Mathew; … - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015647312

Equilibrium in the insurance chain under risk and ambiguity aversion

Lima, Luis Adrián - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015650822

Decision-making when computational complexity drives uncertainty

Bossaerts, Peter L. - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015652504

Transformationsrisiken messbar machen : technologische, kommerzielle und systemische Reife als Gradmesser für Transformationsrisiken und -unsicherheiten

Fußhöller, Lukas; Küper, Malte - 2026 - Stand: April 2026

Die Dekarbonisierung der deutschen Industrie erfordert grundlegende Veränderungen der Produktionsprozesse. Viele der dafür benötigten Technologien sind bislang jedoch noch nicht im industriellen Maßstab erprobt und mit erheblichen technologischen, infrastrukturellen und marktbezogenen...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015632046

Ambiguity about volatility in the commodity futures market

Verousis, Thanos; Wang, Kai; Zhou, Zhiping - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015632674

Identifying scenarios of interest under deep uncertainty

Kwakkel, Jan; Auping, Willem L.; End, Jan-Willem van den - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015632827

Navigating the uncertainty : unveiling the impact of trade policy uncertainty on GVC ascent in Chinese listed companies

Wu, Shiyi; Niu, Rui - 2026

This study is based on real options theory and uses a sample of Chinese listed companies from 2000 to 2016 to investigate the dynamic process and mechanisms by which trade policy uncertainty affects the upgrading of enterprises within the global value chain (GVC). The article finds that trade...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015633597

ROBIST : robust optimization by iterative scenario sampling and statistical testing

Starreveld, Justin; Jin, Guanyu; Hertog, Dirk den; … - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015534326

Mitigating choice model ambiguity : a consensus framework and its application to assortment optimization

Attila, Öykü Naz; Jena, Sanjay Dominik; Rei, Walter - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015543024

An intuitionistic fuzzy analytical hierarchy process-based model for environmentally sustainable development in maritime logistics and supply chains

Muhamad Safuan Shamshol Bahri; Shariff, S. Sarifah Radiah; … - 2026

Backgrounds: Ports are critical nodes in global logistics and supply chains, yet their operations generate substantial environmental and social externalities. Existing evaluation frameworks have limited capability to address uncertainty, ambiguity, and expert hesitation. Moreover, prior studies...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015666828

Sleeping beauty loses her magic psychic powers

Cremin, John - 2026 - Latest version: June 25, 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015671038

A note on strategic ambiguity and coalition structure in electoral competition

Sivapragassam, Aswin - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015671084

International trade in an uncertain world

Kleinman, Benny; Liu, Ernest; Redding, Stephen; Xu, David - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015675283

Managing basis risks effectively : balancing the trade-offs from uncertain forecasts for anticipatory action and disaster risk financing

Thompson, Erica; Gibbins, Goodwin - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015675742

The impact of uncertainty shocks on workforce composition

Caggese, Andrea; Cuñat, Vicente; Metzger, Daniel - 2026 - This draft: January 20, 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015671509

Forecasting with uncertain persistence

Flynn, Joel P.; Meinert, Maksim; Sastry, Karthik A. - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015672844

Ambiguity and the value of late resolution of uncertainty

Kochov, Asen - 2026

The paper shows that in a dynamic setting with multiple sources of uncertainty, recursive ambiguity-averse preferences may imply a preference for late resolution of uncertainty. In particular, the simultaneous resolution of two sources can offer hedging benefits that are negated when one source...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015674931

A multi-location inventory system with occasional allocation under uncertain defective rates

Cui, Ligang; Peng, Zuguo; Chen, Yingcong; Xie, Wenjing - 2026

In this study, a multi-location allocation problem is investigated under a temporary allocation system in light of the uncertain defective rate inherent to items. Based on the theoretical and modeling foundation of previous research, this study contributes in four main aspects. First, a robust...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015674865

Optimal design of model-contingent insurance contracts

Riedel, Frank; Spengemann, Marco - 2026

We study optimal insurance design under linear transaction costs for a policyholder with smooth ambiguity preferences when the underlying loss distribution is identifiable ex post. Under expected utility, Arrow's classical theorem implies that the optimal contract is a straight deductible. Under...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015677183

A framework for decision making under deep uncertainty in hard-to-abate industries : an application case for investment in a German steel plant

Gaebelein-Khanra, Manish; Klobasa, Marian; Patil, Parag - 2026

Decarbonising hard-to-abate industries is necessary for climate goals, yet investment choices are hindered by deep uncertainty. This study develops an ambiguity-aware investment evaluation framework that accounts for parameter uncertainty, probability ambiguity, and downside risk. Scenario-level...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015674959

Navigating the AI adoption trap : a framework for organizational practice

Adobor, Henry - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016059218

Belief disagreement, instability, and uncertainty under stochastic recall

Kuang, Pei; Tang, Li; Weber, Michael - 2026

Expectations are typically modeled as functions of an agent’s information set. Using preregistered evidence, we show that beliefs depend instead on the information agents retrieve when forming them. Even after observing identical histories of inflation or stock returns, individuals recall...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016059524

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Belief disagreement, instability, and uncertainty under stochastic recall

Kuang, Pei; Tang, Li; Weber, Michael - 2026

Book / Working Paper

Disambiguating information interventions : recovering beliefs and ambiguity attitudes from virtual twins

Baillon, Aurélien; Capozza, Francesco; Moghani, Vahid - 2026

Elicited probabilities conflate latent beliefs, ambiguity attitudes, and response er- ror. We develop a measurement method that identifies these components from noisy subjective-probability data using consequential bets on singleton and union events. Ambiguity weighting is parameterized by two...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016060171

Fuzzy approach to analysis of investment alternatives

Kyrylych, Tamara; Povstenko, Yuriy - 2026

With significant market unsureness, "static" methods fail to account for economic uncertainty, may be less precise and, accordingly, less helpful when selecting investment alternatives. Methods that take into account the current economic situation and allow for adapting the alternative selection...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016059544

Understanding productive investment decisions : investment patterns and decision-making processes

Golubova, Eugenie; Roper, Stephen - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015676381

When do prediction markets return average beliefs? : experimental evidence

Mantovani, Marco; Filippin, Antonio - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016061351

Diagnostic uncertainty and insurance coverage in credence goods markets : an experiment

Balafoutas, Loukas; Fornwagner, Helena; Kerschbamer, Rudolf - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016073803

Inflation expectations and cognitive uncertainty

Beckmann, Joscha; Brunne, Jennifer; Heinrich, Timo - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016072666

The economics of decision-making in dementia care and related life-limiting illness : a narrative review

Maksimovic, Ana; Grassi, Simona; Ellis-Smith, Clare; … - 2026

Background Dementia represents a profound healthcare and economic challenge for the 21st century. A significant proportion of associated costs originate in decision-making between people with dementia, family carers, and health and social care practitioners. Economics is a decision science that...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016070719

How social learning overcomes confirmation bias

Bohren, J. Aislinn; Hauser, Daniel - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016070262

Making and breaking promises : on the voluntary provision of public goods under cost uncertainty

Koch, Juliane; Lange, Andreas - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016072689

Robustness? : range tests for equality and equivalence across specifications

Jaeger, David A. - 2026

Applied economists routinely compare estimates across specifications, observe that they are "similar," and conclude that their results are "robust." This common procedure makes an implicit inferential claim about the range of estimates, but usually does not account for their joint sampling...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016069307

A logic of entrepreneurial action without judgment? : effectuation revisited

Rapp, David; Olbrich, Michael; Packard, Mark D. - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016063597