In this paper, we address whether using a disaggregated series or combining an aggregated and disaggregated series improves the forecasting of the aggregated series compared to using the aggregated series alone. We used econometric techniques, such as the weighted lag adaptive least absolute...

To what degree can labor reallocation mitigate the economic consequences of weather-driven agricultural productivity shocks? I estimate that temperature-driven reductions in the demand for agricultural labor in India are associated with increases in non-agricultural employment. This suggests...

Environmental policies are often accompanied by exemptions for energy-intensive and trade-exposed industrial firms to avoid leakage from regulated to unregulated jurisdictions. This paper investigates the impact of a large electricity tax exemption on production levels, employment, and input...

We investigate the predictive power of several leading indicators in order to forecast industrial production in Germany. In addition, we compare their predictive performance with variables from two competing categories, namely macroeconomic and financial variables. The predictive power within...

Die anhaltenden Probleme bei der Beschaffung von Vorleistungen belasten die deutsche Wirtschaft. Drei Viertel der Unternehmen berichten derzeit von Produktionsausfällen von im Durchschnitt 7%. Erst ab dem zweiten Halbjahr 2022 wird sich die Situation deutlich verbessern. Aber auch im Jahr 2023...

The essence of this study is to examine the impact of macroeconomic variables and some salient socio-economic and political variables on the manufacturing sub-sector of the Nigerian economy by using the autoregressive distributed lag to analyze data source from 1986 to 2019 within the context of...

Regionale Produkte sind im Trend. Kreative Manufakturen, offene Werkstätten und moderne Fertigungsmethoden verhelfen dem Handwerk in der Stadt zu einer Renaissance. Was ist daran eigentlich das Neue? Und warum schlummert darin so ein großes Potenzial für einen nachhaltigen Wohlstand und für...

In Q3 2021, industrial output growth was mainly driven by extractive industries owing to a pickup in demand for power-generating coal and natural gas and ebbing restrictions related to the OPEC+ agreement. The following factors kept affecting dynamics of different sectors of the Russian...

We apply a relatively novel leading–lagging (LL) method to four leading and one lagging indexes for industrial production (IP) in Germany. We obtain three sets of results. First, we show that the sentiment-based ifo index performs best in predicting the general changes in IP (−0.596, range...

The study empirically assesses how macroprudential policy interacts with systemic risk, industrial production, and monetary intervention on a global level from January 2006 to December 2018. We adopt the aggregate proxies of these variables, capturing their global effects, and use a novel...

To what degree can labor reallocation mitigate the economic consequences of weather-driven agricultural productivity shocks? I estimate that temperature-driven reductions in the demand for agricultural labor in India are associated with increases in non-agricultural employment. This suggests...

In this paper, we estimated the impact of COVID-19 shock on the industrial production and on the confidence in industry at European Union level, using Panel EGLS method - weighted by Cross-section SUR option. The negative impact we found on both indicators is quite high and may severely affect...

This paper aims to identify economic shocks in four developed countries that authorize different buyback programs. Previous research has revealed that there are few public debates about buyback activities and economic conditions. According to the free cash flow hypothesis, the total payout...

The yield curve is an important tool to assess the economic progress of a country. In this study, we examine the strength of the relationship between term spread and economic activity, and between the components of the yield curve and economic activity in the G7 countries using monthly data on...

We analyze output growth risk with respect to financial conditions across U.S. manufacturing industries. Using a multi-level quantile regression approach, we find strong heterogeneity in growth risk, particularly between the more vulnerable durable goods sector and the more resilient nondurable...

The present study analyzes the "productivity slowdown" of the 1970s. The study also develops a new data set -- industrial data available back to 1948 -- as well as a new set of tools for decomposing changes in productivity growth. The major result of this study is that the productivity slowdown...

Unilateral climate policies are often accompanied by exemptions for energy-intensive and trade-exposed industrial firms to avoid leakage from regulated to unregulated jurisdictions. This paper investigates the impact of a large electricity tax exemption on production levels, employment, and...

Over the last thirty years, China's major cities have experienced significant income and population growth. Much of this growth has been fueled by urban production spurred by world demand. Using a unique cross-city panel data set, we test several hypotheses concerning the relationship between...

The OPEC+ deal and the coronavirus pandemic remain key factors affecting the state of the manufacturing and extractive industries. Some easing of the terms of the OPEC+ deal in 2021 in case of Russia and the possibility of containing the pandemic through mass vaccination suggest that there is a...

According to unpublished data compiled by BLS, productivity in the construction industry reached a peak in 1968 and, except for a brief and small upturn between 1974 and 1976, has been falling ever since. This paper examines the sources of this productivity decline between 1968 and 1978 by...

Manufacturing matters to the United States because it provides high-wage jobs, commercial innovation (the nation’s largest source), a key to trade deficit reduction, and a disproportionately large contribution to environmental sustainability. The manufacturing industries and firms that make...

The imposition of the restrictive measures to contain the spread of the coronavirus infection (self-isolation regime, shutdown of public facilities, etc.) adversely affected the dynamic of Russian industrial sectors in H1 2020. The manufacturing industries that produce consumer durable goods,...

This paper aims to identify economic shocks in four developed countries that authorize different buyback programs. Previous research has revealed that there are few public debates about buyback activities and economic conditions. According to the free cash flow hypothesis, the total payout...

Analysis of trend components of production indices for May through July 2021 suggests that growth factors in trends for the extractive industries since the beginning of 2021 continue to have effect for two reasons: a pickup in demand for power-generating coal on the part of European and Asian...

In this paper we assess the information content of seven widely cited early indicators for the euro area with respect to forecasting area-wide industrial production. To this end, we use various tests that are designed to compare competing forecast models. In addition to the standard...

The term structure of domestic investment grade bond spreads - or corporate spread curve - contains useful information to predict future changes in industrial production, beyond the information already contained in interest rates, commercial paper-treasury bill spreads, and lagged values of...

This paper studies the information content of some Ifo indicators. In particular, we investigate whether two Ifo indicators, one on the current business situation, the other on current production development, provide information on revisions of German industrial production. A new feature of our...

This paper studies the influence of the structure of firm R&D, industry R&D spillovers, and plant level physical capital on the factor intensity of production. By the structure of firm R&D we mena its distribution across states and products. By factor intensity we mena the cost shares of...

This study examined effect of macroeconomic variables on performance of manufacturing sector in Nigeria a thirty six year (39) period spanning from 1981-2019. Specifically, this study investigated how macroeconomic variables such as real interest rate, exchange rate and inflation rate relate...