We study how global supply chain disruptions affect monetary policy transmission. Post-pandemic evidence indicates surging transportation costs, goods-market imbalances, and rising prices. We develop a model in which logistical bottlenecks (upstream slack coexisting with downstream shortages)...

This study investigates the impact of inflation on human capital investment decisions. Using a specially designed survey we estimate the causal effect of recent price level increases on the graduation plans of over 1,200 U.S. university students. We find that inflation caused over half of the...

A review is presented of the macroeconomics of climate change and policy. The review starts with a tractable workhorse model of the macroeconomics of climate and carbon pricing. It then discusses extensions to multiple countries. A discussion of the effects of macroeconomic and climate...

This article investigates the dynamic interrelationships between the shadow economy, inflation, and economic growth in 15 countries of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region over the period 1991-2017. The study employs a simultaneous equations framework estimated through the Three-Stage...

We measure which economic topics are top of mind using quarterly German household and firm panels from 2020 to 2024, a period that spans the post-pandemic inflation surge and the subsequent disinflation. With these data, we study the determinants and consequences of having inflation top of mind....

How would fundamental political change in Iran, leading to a democratic system with a free and rulesbased economic order, affect Germany and the EU economically? In the event of change, sanctions could be scaled back, allowing Iran to rejoin the global economy. This study quantifies the economic...

The paper examines the effect of macroeconomic imbalances on bank lending with emphasis on the exchange rate movement, inflation differential and fiscal deficit. In the study, bank lending is modelled by gross loans and advances, assets quality and risk appetite. The panel GMM model results show...

This report offers a strategic view on the economic and inflation environment in the euro area as part of the monetary policy strategy assessment 2025. It reassesses the factors shaping the inflation and economic environment in light of the recent inflation experience, analyses changes in...

Der vorliegende Bericht zum Thünen-Monitoring von Preisen, Kosten und Margen in landwirtschaftlichen Wertschöpfungsketten diskutiert die methodischen und konzeptionellen Hintergründe des Monitorings und bietet Interpretationshilfen. Er ermöglicht eine informierte Nutzung des umfangreichen...

The main point of this article is that inflation is a "real phenomenon" whose essence lies in the sphere of production. The article uses the Marxian Reproduction Schemes as its point of reference, assuming an economy based solely on commodity money, where one unit of commodity money is...

This paper presents a comprehensive characterization of "fiscal drag" - the increase in tax revenue that occurs when nominal tax bases grow but nominal parameters of progressive tax legislation are not updated accordingly - across 21 European countries using a microsimulation approach. First, we...

We study how inflation varies across regions with different income levels and the role of retailer market structure. Using NielsenIQ Retail Scanner and Business Dynamics Statistics data, we document new stylized facts of spatial heterogeneity in food inflation and retailer market structure. From...

This paper studies the macroeconomic effects of a belief distortion shock—defined as the unexpected component of household inflation expectations after accounting for professional forecasts and observable fundamentals. Using survey data, U.S. macroeconomic variables, and machine-learning...

Populist policies are known to generate a walking stick pattern of high output growth and low inflation followed by low growth and high inflation. Traditionally, researchers viewed this as resulting primarily from populist monetary and fiscal policies that ignore intertemporal budget...

We provide new evidence that inflation inequality surged during the 2021–2023 cost-of living crisis, driven by systematically higher price growth for lower-quality goods disproportionately consumed by poorer households. While substitution in response to relative price changes helped mitigate...

We study monetary policy in an environment where price and wage Phillips curves exhibit true curvature. To this end, we propose a New Keynesian (NK) model with endogenous adjustment of price and wage setting frequencies, moving beyond the quasilinear structure of standard nonlinear NK Phillips...

We build a dataset of output and price effects of conventional monetary policy containing 146,463 point estimates and confidence bands from 4,871 impulse-response functions in 409 primary studies. Simple average responses suggest that interest rate hikes substantially dampen output and prices....

Although there have been a range of studies investigating the role and importance of global supply and demand shocks in US inflation developments during and since the pandemic, this study uses a heretofore unused dataset for this purpose: a quarterly panel of professional forecasts from...

We leverage micro-data to identify macro shocks in time series settings. We exploit firm-level forecast errors on prices and production along with information on production impediments to construct a shock series capturing input material constraints. Our approach allows to separately identify...

We estimate the slope of the Phillips curve in the euro area, allowing for nonlinearities – or kinks – in the relationship between labor market slack and inflation. We exploit cross-country variation in labor market conditions in the period 2001–2024, absorbing aggregate shocks and...

This paper shows that global inflation dynamics have a sizable regional component. Using a balanced panel of 61 countries that starts in 1970, we document that while the global factor, defined as the dominant principal component, explains a large portion of inflation variation in advanced...

This paper demonstrates that ignoring the source of variation in tariff levels yields misleading conclusions regarding the effects of tariff changes. Specifically, we show that changes in the ad valorem equivalent (AVE) tariff are insufficient to quantify the magnitude or sign of the effect of...

This study investigates the dynamic relationship between key macroeconomic indicators, specifically inflation (CPI), the Federal Funds Rate, GDP growth, unemployment, and money supply, and U.S, stock market returns, represented by the S&P 500 index, over the period January 2015 to June 2025, The...