This paper uses a "trendy" approach to understand UK inflation dynamics. It focuses on the time series to isolate a low-frequency and slow-moving component of inflation (the trend) from deviations around this trend. We find that this slow-moving trend explains a substantial share of UK inflation...

We show that exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices varies not only across countries, but also over time. Previous literature has highlighted the role of an economy's "structure" - such as its inflation volatility, inflation rate, use of foreign currency invoicing, and openness - in...

Inflation in the euro area has been falling since mid-2013, turned negative at the end of 2014 and remained below target thereafter. This paper employs a Bayesian VAR to quantify the contribution of a set of structural shocks, identified by means of sign restrictions, to inflation and economic...

Greater international economic interconnectedness over recent decades has been changing inflation dynamics. This paper presents evidence that the expansion of global value chains (GVCs), ie cross-border trade in intermediate goods and services, is an important channel through which global...

This paper seeks to identify what worked and what didn't work to stop inflation in Argentina in the last seventy years. The approach is descriptive rather than theoretical and examines the relative performance of the only ten stabilization plans that, during the period 1952-2015, lasted at least...

The authors solve the IS puzzle for the G7 countries. They find that five of the G7 countries have the expected significant negative relationship between the output gap and the realrate gap; the time series of the remaining two show material deviation from expected IScurve behavior. The authors...

This study reconsiders the common unit root/co-integration approach to test for the Fisher effect for the economies of the G7 countries. We first show that nominal interest and inflation rates are better represented as I(0) variables. Later, we use the Bai–Perron procedure to show the...

In this paper, a dynamic inflation-protected investment strategy is presented, which is based on traditional asset classes and Markov-switching models. Different stock market, as well as inflation regimes are identified, and within those regimes, the inflation hedging potential of stocks, bonds,...

Time-varying exchange rate pass-through effects to domestic prices under fixed euro exchange rate perspective represent one of the most challenging implications of the common currency. The problem is even more crucial when examining crisis related redistributive effects associated with relative...

We empirically examine and compare the determinants of producer and consumer price inflation in 10 Asian economies during 2000-2015. In this connection, we also investigate the pass-through of global oil prices, global food prices, and exchange rates to domestic producer and consumer prices....

Vulnerability of exchange rates to the external price shocks as well as their absorption capabilities represents one of the most discussed area in the fixed versus flexible exchange rate dilemma. Ability of exchange rates to serve as a traditional vehicle for a transmission of external shocks to...

We examine the use of central bank capital as an unconventional monetary policy tool. In this setting, a central bank employs digital currency to transfer digital cash to each household, thus supporting consumption directly when needed. The asset side of the central bank’s balance sheet...

We consider unobserved components time series models where the components are stochastically evolving over time and are subject to stochastic volatility. It enables the disentanglement of dynamic structures in both the mean and the variance of the observed time series. We develop a simulated...

Las teorías convencionales del capitalismo están sumidas en una profunda crisis: tras siglos de debates todavía son incapaces de decirnos qué es el capital. Tanto liberales como marxistas se refieren al capital como una entidad ‘económica’ que puede ser contabilizada en unidades...

This paper explores the evolution and determinants of public support for the euro since its creation in 1999 until the end of 2017, thereby covering the pre-crisis experience of the euro, the crisis years and the recent recovery. Using uniquely large macro and micro databases and applying...

We compare real-time density forecasts for the euro area using three DSGE models. The benchmark is the Smets-Wouters model and its forecasts of real GDP growth and inflation are compared with those from two extensions. The first adds financial frictions and expands the observables to include a...

Empirical inferences about particular forms of agents’ inflation expectations are crucial for the conduct of monetary policy. This paper is an attempt to explore the properties of the Reserve Bank of India’s survey data of households’ inflation expectations. The paper shows that survey...

In the last decade, advanced economies, including the euro area, experienced deflationary pressures caused by the global financial crisis of 2007-2009 and the anti-crisis policies that followed - in particular, the new financial regulations (which led to a deep decline in the money multiplier)....

We examine the use of central bank capital as an unconventional monetary policy tool. In this setting, a central bank employs digital currency to transfer digital cash to each household, thus supporting consumption directly when needed. The asset side of the central bank's balance sheet remains...

This paper explores the evolution and determinants of public support for the euro since its creation in 1999 until the end of 2017, thereby covering the pre-crisis experience of the euro, the crisis years and the recent recovery. Using uniquely large macro and micro databases and applying...

We consider unobserved components time series models where the components are stochastically evolving over time and are subject to stochastic volatility. It enables the disentanglement of dynamic structures in both the mean and the variance of the observed time series. We develop a simulated...

We compare real-time density forecasts for the euro area using three DSGE models. The benchmark is the Smets-Wouters model and its forecasts of real GDP growth and inflation are compared with those from two extensions. The first adds financial frictions and expands the observables to include a...

In the current global market, organizations use many promotional tools to increase their sales. One such tool is sales teams’ initiatives or promotional policies, i.e., free gifts, discounts, packaging, etc. This phenomenon motivates the retailer/or buyer to order a large inventory lot so as...

We exploit a hidden Markov model where inflation is determined by government deficits financed through money creation and/or by destabilizing expectations dynamics (expectations can potentially divorce inflation from fundamentals). The baseline model, proposed by Sargent et al. (2009), is used...

Die Geldpolitik der Europäischen Zentralbank wird von zwei Seiten kritisiert. Während die eine Seite die geldpolitische Ausrichtung als zu expansiv ansieht, wird der EZB von der anderen Seite vorgeworfen, dass die gemessene Inflationsrate noch immer unterhalb des Inflationsziels liegt. Eine...

Empirical inferences about particular forms of agents' inflation expectations are crucial for the conduct of monetary policy. This paper is an attempt to explore the properties of the Reserve Bank of India's survey data of households' inflation expectations. The paper shows that survey...

This paper investigates whether climate "shocks" (or short-term but sharp changes in climatic conditions), El Niño and La Niña, have significant impacts on inflation in the country. Using regional panel data and information from PAGASA, this study finds that both of these weather shocks have...

Las teorías convencionales del capitalismo están sumidas en una profunda crisis: tras siglos de debates todavía son incapaces de decirnos qué es el capital. Tanto liberales como marxistas se refieren al capital como una entidad "económica" que puede ser contabilizada en unidades universales...

In the last decade, advanced economies, including the euro area, experienced deflationary pressures caused by the global financial crisis of 2007-2009 and the anti-crisis policies that followed - in particular, the new financial regulations (which led to a deep decline in the money multiplier)....

We empirically investigate the proposition that firms charge premia on cash prices in transactions involving trade credit. Using a comprehensive Swedish panel dataset on product-level transaction prices and firm-characteristics, we relate trade credit issuance to price setting. In a recession...

This paper provides background information and basic descriptive statistics for a representative survey of the German population conducted on our behalf by GfK in the first quarter of 2018. The survey covers various topics, including: 1) attitudes towards asylum seekers; 2) migrating workers in...

This note revisits the conjecture that the use of broadband internet lowers transaction costs and thereby inflation. Using a macro-economic panel of OECD countries, it replicates and expands previous estimations by Yi and Choi (2005). We confirm the direction of the results, but also highlight a...

The proposition that inflation expectations can be extracted as inflation predictions from the government bond yield curve has been tested, with partially positive results, using data from the United States and European countries. Despite the abundance of empirical studies of the proposition,...

This note revisits the conjecture that the use of broadband internet lowers transaction costs and thereby inflation. Using a macro-economic panel of OECD countries, it replicates and expands previous estimations by Yi and Choi (2005). We confirm the direction of the results, but also highlight a...

Serial correlation in macroeconomics is pervasive. Macroeconomic modellers find it impossible to model this feature without relying on serially correlated shocks. Using a behavioral macroeconomic model, I show that serial correlation in inflation and output can easily be explained in the context...

We study the impact of the interaction between fiscal and monetary policy on the low-frequency relationship between the fiscal stance and inflation using cross-country data from 1965 to 1999. In a first step, we contrast the monetary-fiscal narrative for Germany, the U.S. and Italy with evidence...

The purpose of this paper is to answer the three questions in the title. Using a large monthly survey of businesses, we investigate the inflation expectations and uncertainties of firms. We document that, in the aggregate, firm inflation expectations are very similar to the predictions of...

A major challenge for monetary policy has been predicting how exchange rate movements will impact inflation. We propose a new focus: incorporating the underlying shocks that cause exchange rate fluctuations when evaluating how these fluctuations "pass through" into import and consumer prices. We...

The term structure of interest rates does not adhere to the expectations hypothesis, possibly due to a risk premium. We consider the implications of a risk premium that arises from endogenous market segmentation driven by variable inflation rates. In the absence of autocorrelation in inflation,...

During the Great Recession, despite the large fall in output, inflation did not fall much. This is known as the missing deflation puzzle. In this paper, we develop and estimate a New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model to provide an explanation for the puzzle. The new model...