Geopolitical conflicts generate macroeconomic spillovers that extend beyond directly affected countries through trade and commodity linkages. This paper quantifies these effects for Germany, France, Italy, and Spain using a monthly Trade-Related Conflict Exposure (TRCE) index for 2009–2023...

The debate over CEO compensation persists despite extensive efforts by academics and technocrats to understand its determinants. Most research has focused on how firm-specific characteristics and CEO-specific traits influence CEO compensation. However, the results have been contradictory,...

The inflation rate has shown an upward trend globally, specifically after COVID-19, and the economies of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) are not an exception. A heightened inflation in the modern globalized world is indeed undesirable due to its enormous adverse consequences on all sectors of...

I develop a framework analyzing how artificial intelligence (AI) reshapes monetary policy through three interrelated channels: cyclical transmission, structural transition, and financial stability. In the short run, AI can alter inflation dynamics by changing how supply and demand disturbances...

This study investigates the structural relationship between inflation and key macroeconomic fundamentals in Türkiye, an emerging economy characterized by persistently high and divergent inflation dynamics. Using monthly data for the 2011-2024 period, we apply the Kapetanios, Shin, and Snell...

This study investigates the impact of inflation on human capital investment decisions. Using a specially designed survey we estimate the causal effect of recent price level increases on the graduation plans of over 1,200 U.S. university students. We find that inflation caused over half of the...

Measuring aggregate inflation is subject to two opposing biases: unobserved quality and variety growth, and the use of incorrect weights when new varieties are misclassified. We show that it is possible to measure an aggregate price index free of these biases when we have a subset of products...

We measure which economic topics are top of mind using quarterly German household and firm panels from 2020 to 2024, a period that spans the post-pandemic inflation surge and the subsequent disinflation. With these data, we study the determinants and consequences of having inflation top of mind....

How would fundamental political change in Iran, leading to a democratic system with a free and rulesbased economic order, affect Germany and the EU economically? In the event of change, sanctions could be scaled back, allowing Iran to rejoin the global economy. This study quantifies the economic...

We study how supply chain disruptions shape consumer prices. We develop a simple model showing how disruptions that cause delivery delays affect pricing through product availability, beyond standard cost pass-through, and extend it to a setting with strategic interactions across firms....

Professional inflation forecasts contain valuable information but exhibit information frictions. We extract improved forecasts by explicitly modeling these frictions using the US Survey of Professional Forecasters data, and find that forecast rigidity increases systematically with horizon,...

We study how global supply chain disruptions affect monetary policy transmission. Post-pandemic evidence indicates surging transportation costs, goods-market imbalances, and rising prices. We develop a model in which logistical bottlenecks (upstream slack coexisting with downstream shortages)...

This study investigates the impact of inflation on human capital investment decisions. Using a specially designed survey we estimate the causal effect of recent price level increases on the graduation plans of over 1,200 U.S. university students. We find that inflation caused over half of the...

A review is presented of the macroeconomics of climate change and policy. The review starts with a tractable workhorse model of the macroeconomics of climate and carbon pricing. It then discusses extensions to multiple countries. A discussion of the effects of macroeconomic and climate...

This study analyzes tax reform and its determining factors affecting the tax ratio in Indonesia, Malaysia, India, and Singapore by using the Toda-Yamamoto causality approach. The findings reveal five significant causal relationships in Indonesia, including the impact of inflation (I) on the tax...

It is shown that staggered and sticky price adjustment is possible without ad hoc frictions, and without suspending full price flexibility. I consider an oligopoly with n price-setting firms which can strategically choose the timing of price decisions and thus the stage in a n-stage Stackelberg...

This article investigates the dynamic interrelationships between the shadow economy, inflation, and economic growth in 15 countries of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region over the period 1991-2017. The study employs a simultaneous equations framework estimated through the Three-Stage...

We use a randomized experiment in the Bundesbank Online Panel-Households (n ≈ 3, 900) to show that the estimated link between inflation expectations and household consumption flips sign depending on survey wording. This finding reconciles prior contradictory results and has direct implications...

Geopolitical risk is a major concern for the euro area, yet widely used measures largely reflect a US perspective. We introduce a geopolitical risk indicator tailored to the euro area using local European news sources. Shocks to this index have significant recessionary and inflationary...

Using U.S. and Euro area data, we document that (i) the pass-through of energy prices to inflation is state-dependent - stronger when supply chain uncertainty is elevated - and (ii) in such states, energy prices become more informative about logistical conditions. We develop a model in which...

The monetary policy of the People's Bank of China (PBoC) during 2001-2023 is assessed in terms of Taylor and McCallum rules, as well as a proposed composite monetary policy rule. PBoC policy is found to be responsive to the gap between target and actual nominal GDP in the McCallum rule, as well...

We use an estimated medium-scale HANK model to investigate how the tradeoff between stabilizing inflation and consumption volatility varies for households with different levels of wealth. Consumption for the rich is mostly affected by demand shocks via their exposure to highly procyclical...

The consumer price index (CPI) plays a critical role in measuring inflation. Recent inflation trends, however, have raised questions about its accuracy. This paper evaluates several of these critiques, including that the CPI fails to keep up with rapid changes in consumer expenditure patterns;...

This study investigates the influences of financial performance and economic determinants (inflation rate and economic growth) on financial distress (FD) in the MENA region in the context of the contagion effect theory and Minsky's financial instability theory. This paper examines the...

The relationship between inflation and foreign direct investment (FDI) is not clear-cut in theory. In the U.S., rising inflation coupled with increased economic recovery boosted FDI immediately after the COVID-19 pandemic but suppressed it afterwards. To shed light on the relationship between...

This paper investigates how different parametrisations of the monetary policy reaction function and different mechanisms of expectation formation shape the macroeconomic outcomes in the estimated Smets-Wouters type of DSGE model. The initial macroeconomic conditions of the simulations correspond...

Examining the economies of the European Union from 2000 to 2023, we have found no strong evidence that the inflation rate has a negative impact on economic growth. In contrast, in line with conventional economic theory, higher interest rates are associated with lower economic growth. The results...

This paper examines the pivotal role of journalists in shaping economic narratives, focusing on inflation coverage in Germany in 2022. While the media's influence on disseminating economic narratives is widely acknowledged, little research has focused on journalists, the agents responsible for...

Using surveys of households across thirteen countries, we study how much individuals would be willing to pay to eliminate business cycles. These direct estimates are much higher than traditional measures following Lucas (2003): on average, households would be prepared to sacrifice around 5-6% of...

This study investigates the key drivers and the economic and social impacts of cryptocurrency adoption. Based on panel data across 37 countries from 2020 to 2023, this research examines the interplay between cryptocurrency adoption and technology development, monetary policies, and economic and...

Argentina has been characterised for a long time by inflation, recession, poverty and failed reforms. We analyse the reforms of Javier Milei with the help of the Austrian School of Economics, German ordoliberalism and the theory of financial repression. It is shown that Milei’s reforms have...

Inflation remained quiescent for several decades and then surged in 2021 and 2022. Inflation subsequently fell in 2023 and 2024. This paper investigates how the rise and fall in inflation after 2019 affected the U.S. stock market. To do this, it estimates a fully specified multi-factor model...

A Kuznets-like curve for unemployment suggests that unemployment initially rises with early economic development due to sectoral shifts but decreases as economies mature, diversify, and adapt. This explains how gross national income (GNI) per capita influences or mediates the effect of...