It is unclear how sectoral growth in the agriculture, industrial, and service sectors affects inflation, and the topic is also quite rare. Accordingly, the researchers in this paper examine the long- and short-term effects of agriculture, service, and industry sectors on inflation rates. In...

How much does quality adjustment matter in measuring consumer price inflation? To address this question, we use different sources of micro and macro price data for Germany and the euro area. For Germany, we find that quality adjustment applies to a large range of goods and services but, on...

This paper provides a comprehensive empirical analysis of the role of discretionary fiscal policy for inflation differentials across the 19 euro area countries over the period 1999-2019. The results confirm existing (older) literature that it is difficult to find robust evidence of the fiscal...

The study assessed the effect of inflation targeting (IT) policy on inflation uncertainty and economic growth in African and European IT countries. This study contributes to the existing knowledge by analysing and comparing the African IT and European IT countries using two advanced approaches...

The slight slowdown of consumer price infl ation in Germany in November does not yet constitute the beginning of lower infl ation rates. Even though energy prices are dragging infl ation, producer prices have drastically increased in the past year. Our estimates indicate that infl ation rates...

Several academics and practitioners have pointed out that inflation follows a seemingly exogenous statistical process, unrelated to the output gap, leading some to argue that the Phillips curve has weakened or disappeared. In this paper we explain why this seemingly exogenous process arises, or,...

How much does quality adjustment matter in measuring consumer price inflation? To address this question, we use different sources of micro and macro price data for Germany and the euro area. For Germany, we find that quality adjustment applies to a large range of goods and services but, on...

Weltweit sind die Volkswirtschaften mit hohen Preissteigerungen konfrontiert. Unter anderem beeinflusst die Inflation den Staatshaushalt sowie die Tragfähigkeit der öffentlichen Schulden. Wie und in welchem Ausmaß wird die Staatsschuldenquote durch die höhere Inflationsrate beeinflusst? Es...

This study aims at examining the extent to which the exchange rate impacts on balance of payments in Algeria (BoP) during the period 1980-2019, using the Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model and the Error Correction Model (ECM). This approach tests the presence of a long-run relationship...

With this paper, our objective is to empirically study public debt sustainability by estimating a fiscal reaction function where the primary balance relative to GDP is assumed to be a function of the public debt to GDP ratio of the previous year and of other macroeconomic variables. In...

We define the excess inflation rate (EIR) for a consumer good as the individual good inflation rate minus the general inflation rate. We document sizeable cross-sectional heterogeneity in EIR for goods and services, which we explain by the heterogeneity in EIR's exposure to a set of economic...

Working with a small-scale calibrated New-Keynesian model, Coibion and Gorodnichenko (2011) find that the reduction in trend inflation during Volcker's mandate was a key factor behind the Great Moderation. We revisit this finding with an estimated New-Keynesian model with trend inflation and no...

The study assessed the effect of inflation targeting (IT) policy on inflation uncertainty and economic growth in African and European IT countries. This study contributes to the existing knowledge by analysing and comparing the African IT and European IT countries using two advanced approaches...

The core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, rose to 5.2 percent on January 2022, which is the highest rate of increase since 40 years ago. Our estimates show that the annualized quarterly core PCE prices could reach 5.45% in the...

Since 2000 U.S. inflation has remained both below target and silent to domestic slack and monetary interventions. A trend-cycle BVAR decomposition explores the role of imported intermediate goods in explaining the puzzling behaviour of inflation. The trend analysis shows that, starting from the...

The Fed kept interest rates low and essentially unchanged during the late 1990s despite a booming economy and record-low unemployment. These interest rates were accommodative by historical standards. Nonetheless, inflation remained low. How did the Fed succeed in sustaining rapid economic growth...

Index tracking portfolio is a portfolio that tracks economic indicators or stock indexes. In this study, we propose an inflation rate tracing portfolio method that considers the portfolio turnover and the target return in the past inflation phase. The method is formulated as a quadratic...

Whereas strong demand is a key factor driving high inflation in the US, inflation in the Euro Area is mainly due to adverse external supply shocks (in Europe, energy prices are much higher due to the war in Ukraine). Standard monetary policy response to such shocks is to accommodate first-round...

The COVID-19 pandemic massively interrupted economic activity all over the world. Governments responded by running huge fiscal deficits (financed via central banks) to support firms and consumers, thereby injecting purchasing power into the private sector on a large scale. With no corresponding...

The sharp revisions in inflation forecasts are not rooted in analytical flaws, overly hesitant ECB policies or model failures. Energy price shocks of historic dimensions are the key factor. They have ended the prolonged phase of excessively weak inflation with risks now clearly increasing. In...

Die Niedrigzinspolitik der EZB hat in vielen Ländern des Euroraums zu einem starken Anstieg der Wohnimmobilienpreise beigetragen. In einigen Mitgliedstaaten mündeten diese Übertreibungen am Wohnimmobilienmarkt bereits in Finanz- und Schuldenkrisen. Der Harmonisierte Verbraucherpreisindex...

The study estimates a dynamic model using quarterly data spanning 1995 to 2016. Four dynamic models: level lagged variables, differenced lagged variables, log-transformed lagged variables and differenced log-transformed lagged variables were considered. The best predictive model was selected...

The ECB updated its monetary policy strategy for the first time in 18 years in July 2021. Therein, the ECB announced that it is willing to accept a transitory period of moderate inflation overshoot in its efforts to push inflation upwards after a long period of undershooting its target. This...