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  • Search: subject_exact:"Inflationserwartung"
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Year of publication
Subject
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Inflationserwartung 5,789 Inflation expectations 5,634 Inflation 2,188 Geldpolitik 1,929 Theorie 1,915 Monetary policy 1,881 Theory 1,879 Schätzung 913 Estimation 875 USA 787 Inflationssteuerung 767 Inflation targeting 762 United States 753 Erwartungsbildung 609 Expectation formation 604 EU-Staaten 579 EU countries 541 Prognoseverfahren 486 Zentralbank 477 Forecasting model 476 Phillips-Kurve 468 Phillips curve 463 Central bank 459 Risiko 452 Risk 441 Rationale Erwartung 422 Eurozone 420 Rational expectations 409 Euro area 404 inflation expectations 387 Zins 376 Interest rate 367 Zinsstruktur 366 Yield curve 357 Privater Haushalt 325 Household 321 Großbritannien 305 United Kingdom 291 Prognose 275 Forecast 269
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Online availability
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Free 2,931 Undetermined 896 CC license 65
Type of publication
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Book / Working Paper 3,503 Article 2,278 Journal 8
Type of publication (narrower categories)
All
Working Paper 2,073 Article in journal 2,016 Aufsatz in Zeitschrift 2,016 Graue Literatur 2,006 Non-commercial literature 2,006 Arbeitspapier 1,936 Aufsatz im Buch 193 Book section 193 Hochschulschrift 80 Thesis 60 Conference paper 42 Konferenzbeitrag 42 Collection of articles written by one author 27 Sammlung 27 Konferenzschrift 24 Collection of articles of several authors 23 Sammelwerk 23 Amtsdruckschrift 18 Government document 18 Aufsatzsammlung 15 Rezension 15 Article 14 Conference proceedings 10 Systematic review 9 Übersichtsarbeit 9 Amtliche Publikation 7 Case study 7 Fallstudie 7 Bibliografie enthalten 5 Bibliography included 5 Forschungsbericht 4 Mikroform 4 Research Report 3 Doctoral Thesis 1 Interview 1 Mehrbändiges Werk 1 Multi-volume publication 1 Proceedings 1 Reprint 1 Statistik 1
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Language
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English 5,548 German 106 French 41 Spanish 39 Portuguese 12 Italian 9 Polish 9 Norwegian 7 Russian 5 Danish 3 Bulgarian 2 Czech 2 Hungarian 2 Dutch 2 Slovak 2 Swedish 2 Undetermined 2 Finnish 1 Croatian 1
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Author
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Gorodnichenko, Yuriy 151 Coibion, Olivier 135 Weber, Michael 116 Dräger, Lena 63 Lamla, Michael 59 Georgarakos, Dimitris 55 D'Acunto, Francesco 50 Paloviita, Maritta 50 Ehrmann, Michael 44 Pfajfar, Damjan 43 Moessner, Richhild 39 Siklos, Pierre L. 38 Łyziak, Tomasz 37 Kenny, Geoff 35 Williams, John C. 35 Reis, Ricardo 34 Binder, Carola Conces 32 Hoang, Daniel 32 Nautz, Dieter 32 Rooij, Maarten van 32 Topa, Giorgio 31 Orphanides, Athanasios 30 Galati, Gabriele 29 Melosi, Leonardo 29 Ropele, Tiziano 29 Caporale, Guglielmo Maria 28 Klaauw, Wilbert van der 28 Kilian, Lutz 27 Kumar, Saten 27 Mönch, Emanuel 27 Schoenle, Raphael 27 Yetman, James 27 Bianchi, Francesco 26 Eusepi, Stefano 26 Adam, Klaus 25 Andrade, Philippe 25 Dovern, Jonas 25 Garcia, Juan Angel 23 Honkapohja, Seppo 23 Fritsche, Ulrich 22
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Institution
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National Bureau of Economic Research 128 Europäisches Parlament / Policy Department for Economic, Scientific and Quality of Life Policies 8 Task Force on Low Inflation (LIFT) 8 Internationaler Währungsfonds 7 Bank für Internationalen Zahlungsausgleich / Währungs- und Wirtschaftsabteilung 6 European Central Bank 6 European Commission / Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs 6 Banca d'Italia 5 Johns Hopkins University / Department of Economics 5 Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland 4 Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel / Institut für Weltwirtschaft 3 Ekonomiska forskningsinstitutet <Stockholm> 3 Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City / Research Division 3 Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond 3 Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco 3 Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research <Mailand> 3 Banque des États de l'Afrique Centrale / Direction des Etudes 2 Centralna Banka Crne Gore 2 Centre for Economic Policy Research 2 Centro di Economia Monetaria e Finanziaria Paolo Baffi 2 Columbia University / Department of Economics 2 Danmarks Nationalbank 2 European University Institute / Department of Economics 2 Europäisches Parlament / Referat Kontrolle der Wirtschaftspolitischen Steuerung und der WWU 2 Federal Reserve System / Board of Governors 2 Goethe-Universität Frankfurt am Main 2 Internationaler Währungsfonds / European Department <1> 2 Narodna Banka Srbije 2 Oesterreichische Nationalbank 2 University of Strathclyde / Department of Economics 2 Università commerciale Luigi Bocconi 2 Australian National University / Faculty of Economics and Commerce 1 Bank für Internationalen Zahlungsausgleich 1 Center for Economic Research <Tilburg> 1 Centralʹnyj bank Rossijskoj Federacii 1 Centre for International Macroeconomics 1 City University Business School / Department of Banking and Finance 1 ECB Forum on Central Banking <2018, Sintra> 1 Economic Research Institute 1 Edward Elgar Publishing 1
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Published in...
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NBER working paper series 127 Discussion papers / CEPR 97 Working paper series / European Central Bank 90 Working paper / National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. 79 CESifo working papers 76 Economics letters 74 ECB Working Paper 73 NBER Working Paper 73 Journal of money, credit and banking : JMCB 66 Journal of monetary economics 65 Discussion paper 60 Discussion paper / Centre for Economic Policy Research 55 Finance and economics discussion series 53 Applied economics 51 International journal of central banking : IJCB 42 Journal of macroeconomics 38 CESifo Working Paper 37 Working paper 37 Working papers / Bank for International Settlements 34 Bank of Japan working paper series 32 Macroeconomic dynamics 32 Bank of Finland research discussion papers 31 Economic modelling 31 CAMA working paper series 30 Journal of economic dynamics & control 30 Applied economics letters 29 IMF working papers 28 FEDS Working Paper 27 Journal of international money and finance 26 DNB working paper 25 Questioni di economia e finanza 25 Empirical economics : a journal of the Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna, Austria 24 Staff reports / Federal Reserve Bank of New York 24 Discussion paper series / IZA 23 Working papers series / Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco 23 BIS Paper 21 European economic review : EER 21 Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland working paper series 21 BIS Working Paper 20 The review of economics and statistics 20
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Source
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ECONIS (ZBW) 5,622 EconStor 157 ArchiDok 5 RePEc 4 OLC EcoSci 1
Showing 1 - 50 of 5,789
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Soft landing and inflation scares
Bullard, James B.; Grimaud, Alex; Salle, Isabelle; … - 2025
We discuss the timing and strength of the Fed's reaction to the recent inflation surge within an estimated macroeconomic model where long-run inflation expectations are heterogeneous and can lose their anchoring to the target. The resulting inflation scare worsens the real cost of disinflation....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015191492
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Asymmetric inflation target credibility
Coleman, Winnie; Nautz, Dieter - 2025 - This version: January 2025
This paper investigates the determinants of inflation target credibility (ITC) using a unique survey we designed to measure the credibility of the ECB's inflation target. Containing over 200,000 responses from German consumers collected between January 2019 and November 2024, our dataset enables...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015191733
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Asymmetric inflation target credibility
Coleman, Winnie; Nautz, Dieter - 2025 - This version: January 2025
This paper investigates the determinants of inflation target credibility (ITC) using a unique survey we designed to measure the credibility of the ECB's inflation target. Containing over 200,000 responses from German consumers collected between January 2019 and November 2024, our dataset enables...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015173585
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Inflation, attention and expectations
Briand, Etienne; Marcellino, Massimiliano; Stevanović, … - 2025
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Low pass-through from inflation expectations to income growth expectations : why people dislike inflation
Hajdini, Ina; Knotek, Edward S.; Leer, John; Pedemonte, … - 2025
Using a large, nationally representative survey of US consumers, we estimate a causal 20 percent pass-through from inflation expectations to income growth expectations for the average consumer, with considerable heterogeneity in pass-through associated with sociodemographic factors. The results...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015179672
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Policy implications of losing credibility: lessons from Colombia’s post-pandemic inflationary sur
Grajales-Olarte, Anderson; Hamann S., Franz A.; … - 2025
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One who hesitates is lost : monetary policy under model uncertainty and model misspecification
Ajevskis, Viktors - In: Economies : open access journal 13 (2025) 2, pp. 1-18
This paper investigates how different parametrisations of the monetary policy reaction function and different mechanisms of expectation formation shape the macroeconomic outcomes in the estimated Smets-Wouters type of DSGE model. The initial macroeconomic conditions of the simulations correspond...
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Do inflation expectations become more anchored during a disinflation episode? : evidence for euro area firms
Baumann, Ursel; Ferrando, Annalisa; Georgarakos, Dimitris; … - 2025
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015210555
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Fuel price surges and rising inflation expectations in the Euro Area
Morão, Hugo - In: International economics : the quarterly journal in … 181 (2025), pp. 1-14
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Long-run inflation expectations
Fisher, Jonas D. M.; Melosi, Leonardo; Rast, Sebastian - 2025
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Social learning and monetary policy at the effective lower bound
Arifovic, Jasmina; Grimaud, Alex; Salle, Isabelle; … - 2025
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015396835
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Bond supply expectations and the term structure of interest rates
Billio, Monica; Busetto, Francesca; Dufour, Alfonso; … - In: Journal of international money and finance 150 (2025), pp. 1-27
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War-associated geopolitical risks and uncertainty : implications for real wages
Nasir, Muhammad Ali; Spencer, David A. - 2025
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015338007
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On the fragility of the nonlinear Phillips curve view of recent inflation
Beaudry, Paul; Hou, Chenyu; Portier, Franck - 2025 - This version February 2025
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015271928
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Firm inflation expectations, uncertainty an beliefs
Rangan, Janani; Das, Abhiman - 2025
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Bank credit, expected inflation rate, and financial dynamics
Watanabe, Toshio - 2025
We investigate the effects of debt-capital ratio and expected inflation rate on the stability of the economy using a Minsky model and reconsidering Fisher's debt-deflation theory. We have developed static and dynamic models that formalize an inflation-targeting policy. The static model reveals...
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The market for inflation risk
Bahaj, Saleem; Czech, Robert; Ding, Sitong; Reis, Ricardo - 2025
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Long-run inflation expectations
Fisher, Jonas D. M.; Melosi, Leonardo; Rast, Sebastian - 2025
Professional forecasters' long-run inflation expectations overreact to news and exhibit persistent, predictable biases in forecast errors. A model incorporating overconfidence in private information and a persistent expectations bias-which generates persistent forecast errors across most...
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Aggregate implications of heterogeneous inflation expectations : the role of individual experience
Pedemonte, Mathieu; Toma, Hiroshi; Verdugo, Esteban - 2025
We explore the implications of heterogeneous, history-dependent inflation expectations in a general equilibrium setting. We propose an experience-based expectations-augmented Kalman filter to represent consumers' heterogeneous inflation expectations, where heterogeneity arises from an...
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Uncertainty in the formation of inflation expectations in Japan : an analysis using the macroeconomic model Q-JEM
Fukunaga, Ichiro; Kishaba, Yui; Shibata, Nao; Yoneyama, … - 2025
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Homeownership and attention to inflation : evidence from information treatments
Piccolo, Jessica; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy - 2025
This paper examines how homeownership status shapes attention to inflation and its impact on durable consumption. Using randomized controlled trials on U.S. households (2021-2023), we document systematic heterogeneity in responses to inflation-related information. Homeowners exhibit greater...
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The four R-stars : from interest rates to inflation and back
Reis, Ricardo - 2025
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Forward guidance and its effectiveness : a macro-finance shadow-rate framework
Koeda, Junko; Wei, Bin - 2025 - This Draft: March 2025
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Inflation forecasting in turbulent times
Ertl, Martin; Fortin, Ines; Hlouskova, Jaroslava; Koch, … - In: Empirica : journal of european economics 52 (2025) 1, pp. 5-37
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Heterogeneous attention to inflation and monetary policy
Shabalina, Ekaterina; Tzaawa-Krenzler, Mary - 2025
We study how heterogeneous attention to inflation across households affects the transmission of monetary policy. Using household-level surveys for the US and Australia, we first show that households' attention to inflation varies across income levels. Specifically, we find that high-income...
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Belief distortions and disagreement about Iinflation
Pagano Giorgianni, Giuseppe; Patella, Valeria - 2025
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Word2Prices: embedding central bank communications for inflation prediction
Araujo, Douglas Kiarelly Godoy de; Bokan, Nikola; … - 2025
Word embeddings are vectors of real numbers associated with words, designed to capture semantic and syntactic similarity between the words in a corpus of text. We estimate the word embeddings of the European Central Bank's introductory statements at monetary policy press conferences by using a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015340280
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Asymmetric inflation target credibility
Coleman, Winnie; Nautz, Dieter - 2025 - This version: March 2025
This paper investigates the determinants of inflation target credibility (ITC) using a unique survey we designed to measure the credibility of the ECB's inflation target. Containing over 200,000 responses from German consumers collected between January 2019 and November 2024, our dataset enables...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015361742
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Estimating the inflation risk premium
Feunou, Bruno; Kumar, Gitanjali - 2025
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Media tone : the role of news and social media on heterogeneous inflation expectations
Heikkinen, Joni; Heimonen, Kari - In: Journal of forecasting 44 (2025) 3, pp. 881-921
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The long-term effects of inflation on inflation expectations
Braggion, Fabio; Meyerinck, Felix von; Schaub, Nic; … - 2025
We study the long-term effects of inflation surges on inflation expectations using Germany as a laboratory. Households living in areas with higher local inflation during the hyperinflation of the 1920s expect higher inflation today, even after controlling for known determinants of historical...
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The taming of the skew : asymmetric inflation risk and monetary policy
De Polis, Andrea; Melosi, Leonardo; Petrella, Ivan - 2025
We document that inflation risk in the U.S. varies significantly over time and is often asymmetric. To analyze the macroeconomic effects of these asymmetric risks within a tractable framework, we construct the beliefs representation of a general equilibrium model with skewed distribution of...
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Peer effects in macroeconomic expectations
Dräger, Lena; Gründler, Klaus; Potrafkec, Niklas - 2025
Social interactions affect individual behavior in a variety of ways, but their effects on expectation formation are less well understood. We design a large-scale global survey experiment among renowned experts working in 135 countries to study whether peer effects impact expectations about the...
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Household beliefs about fiscal dominance
Andrade, Philippe; Gautier, Erwan; Mengus, Eric; … - 2025 - This version: March 2025
We study beliefs about fiscal dominance using a survey of German households. We first design and conduct a randomized controlled trial to identify how fiscal news impacts individuals' debt-to-GDP and inflation expectations. We document that the link between debt and inflation crucially depends...
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Whose inflation expectations forecast best? : alternatives based on survey and financial data
Reid, Monique; Siklos, Pierre L. - 2025
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015406272
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Intrahousehold disagreement about macroeconomic expectations
Da Ke - In: The journal of finance : the journal of the American … 80 (2025) 3, pp. 1647-1689
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Tempting FAIT : flexible average inflation targeting and the post-COVID U.S. inflation surge
Duncan, Roberto; Martínez-García, Enrique; Miller, Luke - 2025
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Perceiving central bank communications through press coverage
García, Pilar; Torres, Diego - 2025
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Boundedly rational expectations and the optimality of flexible average inflation targeting
Brassil, Anthony; Gibbs, Christopher G.; Ryan, Callum - 2025
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Monetary policy strategy and the anchoring of long-run inflation expectations
Kiley, Michael T. - 2025 - Version 1.4
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Inflation, expectations and monetary policy : what have we learned and to what end?
Coibion, Olivier; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy - 2025
We review recent research and experiences linking inflation and expectations, emphasizing what has been learned since 2020. One clear lesson is that the inflation expectations of most economic agents have been and remain unanchored. The unanchored nature of inflation expectations, in combination...
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Tell me something I don't already know : learning in low- and high-inflation settings
Weber, Michael; Candia, Bernardo; Afrouzi, Hassan; … - In: Econometrica : journal of the Econometric Society, an … 93 (2025) 1, pp. 229-264
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015401150
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Word2Prices: embedding central bank communications for inflation prediction
Araujo, Douglas Kiarelly Godoy de; Bokan, Nikola; … - 2025
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015411796
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Does inflation targeting reduce economic uncertainty? : evidence from Mexico
Cano-Espinosa, Domicio - In: Economies : open access journal 13 (2025) 4, pp. 1-16
This study examines the dynamic relationship between inflation, inflation uncertainty, and economic performance in Mexico using the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity-in-Mean (GARCH-M) and bivariate GARCH-in-mean (BGARCH-M) models. Based on monthly data from 1995 to 2019,...
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Household beliefs about fiscal dominance
Andrade, Philippe; Gautier, Erwan; Mengus, Eric; … - 2025
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015410298
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Drawbacks of household panel data on inflation perceptions and expectations : non-representativeness and selectivity
Hayo, Bernd; Dzung Bui - 2025 - This version: 19 May 2025
By comparing the Bundesbank's BOP-HH and the ECB's CES-ECB household panel surveys focusing on inflation perceptions and expectations with omnibus surveys conducted in Germany in December 2021 and 2022, this paper examines potential sample selection bias stemming from (i) individuals'...
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Insights from indian households' qualitative inflation expectations
Roshin Paul P; Ghosh, Taniya - 2025
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Gasoline price expectations as a transmission channel for gasoline price shocks
Anderl, Christina; Caporale, Guglielmo Maria - 2025
This paper uses data on 5-year gasoline price expectations from the US Michigan Survey of Consumers to investigate their role as a transmission channel for gasoline price shocks. Specifically, a Structural VAR model is estimated to carry out counterfactual analysis which shows that gasoline...
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Monetary Policy and Inflation Expectations : High-Frequency Evidence from Brazil
Goncalves, Carlos - 2025
We investigate the impact of high frequency monetary policy shocks in Brazil using daily data and Rigobon' s identification via heteroskedasticity. We show that positive changes in interest rates cause inflation expectations to decline and the exchange rate to appreciate. To the best of our...
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Underlying Composite Inflation (UCI) : a novel indicator to track inflation developments
Aprigliano, Valentina; Corsello, Francesco - 2025
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