In this paper, I extend the Hein and Stockhammer model of distribution and inflation by incorporating structural trends of financialization through three Kaleckian channels: (1) sectoral recomposition, (2) financial overhead costs and rentiers' profit claims, and (3) the bargaining power of...

We implement a quantitative empirical test of the fiscal theory of the price level (FTPL) model via indirect inference, comparing it to a standard New Keynesian model. The FTPL alternative creates a serious instability problem because it triggers a 'doom loop'in which inflation pushes up...

The return of inflation in Western economies has fueled the debate on its main drivers, bringing sector-specific shocks and supply chain bottlenecks to the forefront. Building on the seminal approach of Weber et al. (2024), this paper develops a method to assess the degree of exposure to these...

This paper conducts a systematic comparison of two main textbook variants within the Kaleckian tradition of post-Keynesian conflict inflation and distribution theory: the Blecker/Setterfield (2019) and Lavoie (1992, 2022) (BSL) model based on Dutt (1987), and the Hein (2023a) and...

We implement a quantitative empirical test of the fiscal theory of the price level (FTPL) model via indirect inference, comparing it to a standard New Keynesian model. The FTPL alternative creates a serious instability problem because it triggers a 'doom loop'in which inflation pushes up...

When inflation picks up, central banks are most concerned that the de-anchoring of inflation expectations and the ignition of wage-price spirals will trigger inflation dynamic instability. However, such scenarios do not materialize in the standard New Keynesian theoretical framework for monetary...

This study contributes to the ongoing discussion surrounding the recent upswing in inflation by presenting an analytical framework and empirically examining inflation trends in Italy. Its primary aim is to unveil the underlying causes, distributive repercussions, and mechanisms through which...

This paper presents a new formulation of conflict inflation labeled the "pass-through" approach, which contrasts with the existing "pressure balance" approach. The model generates Phillips styled inflation - unemployment dynamics that are a hybrid of Keynesian and NAIRU dynamics. Conflict...

We develop a tractable sticky price model in which the fraction of price changes evolves endogenously over time and, consistent with the evidence, increases with inflation. Because we assume that firms sell multiple products and choose how many, but not which, prices to adjust in any given...

Carvalho et al. (2023) propose a theoretical framework that explains longrun inflation expectations' dynamic using short-run inflation surprises and beliefs about monetary policy. In an empirical exercise, they show that this concise framework predicts long-term inflation expectations well over...

This paper reviews the post-Keynesian theory of inflation against the background of the simultaneous rise in inflation and profit shares in the course of the COVID-19 recovery and the Russian war in Ukraine. It distinguishes between the Keynes, Kaldor, Robinson, and Marglin tradition, and the...

This paper reviews the post-Keynesian theory of inflation against the background of the simultaneous rise in inflation and profit shares in the course of the Covid-19 recovery and the Russian war in Ukraine. It distinguishes between the Keynes, Kaldor, Robinson, and Marglin tradition, and the...

This article revisits the Portfolio Theory of Inflation (PTI), with a view to further articulating its findings and implications. The article adds to the micro-foundations of the PTI, framing more rigorously the role of global investors as international allocators of capital resources, and...

We show that the impact of supply and monetary policy shocks on consumer prices is state-dependent. First, we let the data determine two inflation regimes and find that they are characterized by high and low inflation volatility. We then identify upstream supply shocks using instrumental...

We offer a critique of a paper recently published Lorenzoni and Werning (2023). The paper seeks to make a) an original contribution to the hypothesis that inflation is primarily caused by conflict, and b) reconcile the Post-Keynesian and New-Keynesian traditions. In the first section the authors...

We develop a new class of general equilibrium models with partially unfunded debt to propose a fiscal theory of persistent inflation. In response to business cycle shocks, the monetary authority controls inflation, and the fiscal authority stabilizes debt. However, the central bank accommodates...

Inflation is a persistent challenge that affects economies globally. The battle against inflation is crucial for maintaining economic stability and promoting growth. This study aims to examine the strategies employed by the United States to overcome inflation and maintain economic stability. The...

We offer a critique of a paper recently published Lorenzoni and Werning (2023) that seeks to make an original contribution to the hypothesis that inflation is primarily caused by conflict and reconcile the Post-Keynesian and New-Keynesian traditions. L&W’s paper has two sections. In the first...

2021-2022 marks the period where inflation accelerated globally, after more than 10 years of low and stable inflationary pressures. Many economists have asserted the causes of this recent increase in inflation: external pressures, driven by a surge in international prices due to the...

Do "real" assets protect against inflation? Core inflation betas of stocks are negative while energy betas are positive; currencies, commodities, and real estate also mostly hedge against energy inflation but not core. These hedging properties are reflected in the prices of inflation risks: only...

The resurgence of inflation since the late 2021 is now accompanied by a reversal of prospects of growth, reviving fears of stagflation across the world (IMF 2022, World Bank 2022). In almost all accounts of the mounting stagflation threats a prominent role is played by the fall of households'...

We develop a tractable sticky price model in which the fraction of price changes evolves endogenously over time and, consistent with the evidence, increases with inflation. Because we assume that firms sell multiple products and choose how many, but not which, prices to adjust in any given...

A strategic mechanism of price adjustment is introduced to explain inflations in the U.S. during 1909-1974. The mechanism follows from our theory that when the profit rate is above a normal-target rate, competitive forces operate to lower prices while if the profit rate is below the target a...

The optimal currency area (OCA) concept is central to the economic analysis of monetary unions, as it clearly identifies the relevant optimizing tradeoff: extension of the area over which a single currency is used enhances allocative efficiency but reduces the possibility of tailoring monetary...

Decomposing inflation into core and non-core components (e.g., energy) sheds new light on the nature of inflation risk and risk premia. While stocks have insignificant exposure to headline inflation in the U.S., their core inflation betas are negative and energy betas are positive. Conventional...

We develop and estimate a structural model of inflation that allows for a fraction of firms that use a backward looking rule to set prices. The model nests the purely forward looking New Keynesian Phillips curve as a particular case. We use measures of arginal cost as the relevant determinant of...

Financial innovation challenges the foundations of monetary theory, and standard monetary theory has not been very successful at describing the history of U.S. inflation. Motivated by these observations, I ask: Can we understand the history of U.S. inflation using a framework that ignores...

It is an open question whether and how indexed wage contracts reduce welfare or raise average inflation. This paper analyzes the impact of indexed wage contracts on inflation and social welfare in a Barro-Gordon model with discretionary monetary policy by endogenizing social costs of indexation....

Mean dynamics govern convergence to rational expectations equilibria of self-referential systems under least squares learning. We highlight escape dynamics that propel away from a rational expectations equilibrium under fixed-gain recursive learning schemes. These learning schemes discount past...

This paper studies the relationship between inflation, output, money and interest rates in the euro area, using data spanning 1980 2000. The P* model is shown to have considerable empirical support. Thus, the price gap' or, equivalently, the real money gap' (the gap between current real balances...

This paper proposes a theory of supply shocks, or shifts in the short-run Phillips curve, based on relative-price changes and frictions in nominal price adjustment. When price adjustment is costly, firms adjust to large shocks but not to small shocks, and so large shocks have disproportionate...