The finding of Feldstein and Horioka (1980) that domestic saving and domestic investment are highly correlated across countries despite the rapid globalization and liberalization of financial markets in recent decades has been regarded as a Puzzle or Paradox. However, in this paper, we show that...

This paper examines the role of long-run and cyclical components of interest rate differentials in explaining the returns to currency carry strategies. We show that long-run differentials account for most of the profitability, while cyclical differentials play only a limited role. A simple...

We study the behavior of Covered Interest Parity (CIP) deviations - aka the CIP basis - in Emerging Markets (EM). A major challenge in computing the CIP basis in EM's lies in measuring local currency interest rates which are free of local credit risk. To do so, we construct a 'purified' CIP...

The finding of Feldstein and Horioka (1980) that domestic saving and domestic investment are highly correlated across countries despite the rapid globalization and liberalization of financial markets in recent decades has been regarded as a Puzzle or Paradox. However, in this paper, we show that...

The core objective of this article is to explore the viability of uncovered interest parity and to reconnoiter major determinants of domestic interest rates of the Pakistan and China economies. It is imperative to study the interest rate parity that assistances to comprehend that exactly how...

Not according to our data. We use two data sets to test whether professional forecasters follow uncovered interest rate parity (UIP) when making their exchange rate predictions both based on point prediction and direction. We find that professional forecasters generally do not follow UIP across...

This paper investigates the sensitivity of the demand for safe government debt to currency unhedged and hedged excess returns in a sample of US mutual funds. We find evidence of active rebalancing towards government bonds that offer relatively higher returns on an unhedged basis, in particular...

This paper applies novel time-varying Granger causality tests to the Uncovered Interest Rate Parity (UIP) relation for G10 currencies. In line with UIP, our findings indicate that long term interest rates Granger-cause exchange rates around periods of major macroeconomic and (geo)political events

Historically, currency swap lines between central banks were used to provide liquidity assistance to countries and as a means to influence exchange rates and offshore money market interest rates, such as the London interbank offered rate (LIBOR). Allen, Galati, Moessner, and Nelson (2017)...

This paper investigates purchasing power parity (PPP) between the G7 member countries after the advent of the Euro currency. A dynamic joint model of PPP and uncovered interest parity (UIP) is introduced to decompose the real exchange rate (RER) into two components. Interest rate differential...

This paper documents a novel result regarding the uncovered interest rate parity (UIP) puzzle: investing in high interest rate currencies does not yield positive excess returns during recessions. That is, the UIP holds in bad times. This new finding is a challenge to existing rational...

We review the literature on multi-horizon currency risk premiums. We show how the multi-horizon implications arise from the classic present-value relationship. We further show how these implications manifest themselves in the interaction between bond and currency risk premiums. This link is...

In the 4×4 Asset Allocation framework all assets and liabilities in any portfolio should be thought of as means contributing to the following four ends:• Liquidity maintenance: nominally safe and quickly accessible “cash-like” pool of assets,• Income generation: relatively regular,...

The standard uncovered interest parity (UIP)—a logarithm version—is inappropriate for currencies with a high interest rate because the interest rate (i) does not satisfy the ln(1 + i) = i condition. Therefore, this study employs the precise form of UIP and evaluates its empirical validity...

We provide a systematic empirical treatment of short-term Covered Interest Parity (CIP) deviations for a large set of emerging market (EM) currencies. EM CIP deviations have much larger volatilities than most G10 currencies and move in an opposite direction during global risk-off episodes. While...

This paper investigates whether the uncovered interest parity (UIP) will hold more firmly if the local currency bond markets (LCBMs) are more developed, and the presence of nonbank financial institutions (NBFIs) is expanded. Deviations in UIP decrease as LCBMs develop, while the patterns of the...

Interest rate parity (IRP) states that the difference between the interest rates of two currencies equals the expected percentage change in the associated exchange rate. Unfortunately, IRP is ambiguous. There are two inconsistent values of the expected percentage change in the exchange rate,...

In this paper, I analyze covered interest rate parity (CIP) deviations among thirteen (13) Emerging Market economies and the US dollar. Also, I document a new triangular connection formed by the US dollar, oil prices in US dollars, and CIP deviations. I find empirical evidence that a stronger...

Using confidential daily foreign exchange interventions (FXI) data, we analyse the FXI episode of the Bank of Israel (BOI) from 2013 to 2019. We find that a purchase of US dollar (USD) 1 billion is on average associated with a depreciation of the Israeli new shekel (ILS) by 0.82%-0.83%, which is...

Interest rate parity (IRP) states that the difference between the interest rates of two currencies equals the expected percentage change in the associated exchange rate. Unfortunately, IRP is ambiguous. There are two inconsistent values of the expected percentage change in the exchange rate,...

This paper studies the effect of exchange rate uncertainty on the deviations of Covered Interest Rate parity. I develop a method for estimating the daily uncertainty via endogenous factor clustering to determine the currency grouping and an optimal number of groups and general factors explaining...