Our econometric (cointegration) analysis of the Swiss franc US dollar exchange rates over the period 1974 - 2025 provides strong evidence for a negative bias of the forward rate as predictor of the spot rate for the years up to 2007, which disappears with data from 2008 onwards. This implies...

We establish an empirical framework that causally identifies how Treasury demand shocks transmit across foreign exchange and global bond markets, providing direct validation of quantity-driven theories of international risk premia. Our identification exploits predetermined auction supply to...

This paper examines the role of long-run and cyclical components of interest rate differentials in explaining the returns to currency carry strategies. We show that long-run differentials account for most of the profitability, while cyclical differentials play only a limited role. A simple...

We study the behavior of Covered Interest Parity (CIP) deviations - aka the CIP basis - in Emerging Markets (EM). A major challenge in computing the CIP basis in EM's lies in measuring local currency interest rates which are free of local credit risk. To do so, we construct a 'purified' CIP...

Not according to our data. We use two data sets to test whether professional forecasters follow uncovered interest rate parity (UIP) when making their exchange rate predictions both based on point prediction and direction. We find that professional forecasters generally do not follow UIP across...

The core objective of this article is to explore the viability of uncovered interest parity and to reconnoiter major determinants of domestic interest rates of the Pakistan and China economies. It is imperative to study the interest rate parity that assistances to comprehend that exactly how...

This paper investigates the sensitivity of the demand for safe government debt to currency unhedged and hedged excess returns in a sample of US mutual funds. We find evidence of active rebalancing towards government bonds that offer relatively higher returns on an unhedged basis, in particular...

The finding of Feldstein and Horioka (1980) that domestic saving and domestic investment are highly correlated across countries despite the rapid globalization and liberalization of financial markets in recent decades has been regarded as a Puzzle or Paradox. However, in this paper, we show that...

We document a strong decoupling between the convenience yield on the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasuries. We measure the convenience of the U.S. dollar using covered interest parity (CIP) deviations between risk-free bank rates, such as secured overnight rates since the benchmark reform. In...

This paper argues that there is scope for monetary policy under an exchange rate anchor, and discusses the related monetary policy design and implementation. It shows that the exchange rate can be used as the main monetary policy instrument while the policy rate can target the exchange rate. An...

The study examines the impact of interest rate differential and exchange rate move-ment on the dynamics of Nigeria's international private capital flows from 2010Q1to 2019Q4. It uses the interest rate parity theory and the Markov Switching TimeVarying Transition Probability Modelling approach....

This paper investigates price discovery in foreign exchange (FX) swaps. Using data on inter-dealer transactions, we find that a 1 standard deviation increase in order flow (i.e. net pressure to obtain USD through FX swaps) increases the cost of dollar funding by up to 4 basis points after the...

We provide a systematic empirical treatment of short-term Covered Interest Parity (CIP) deviations for a large set of emerging market (EM) currencies. EM CIP deviations have much larger volatilities than most G10 currencies and move in an opposite direction during global risk-off episodes. While...

We revisit the "puzzle" in open economy studies that evidence of international risk-sharing is hardly seen despite the completeness of the financial market. We reassess both risk-pooling via state-contingent bonds, and uncovered interest parity - both were believed to be different, and...

This paper applies novel time-varying Granger causality tests to the Uncovered Interest Rate Parity (UIP) relation for G10 currencies. In line with UIP, our findings indicate that long term interest rates Granger-cause exchange rates around periods of major macroeconomic and (geo)political events

No, not according to our data. Using a unique data set, we run panel regressions to test whether professional forecasters believe in uncovered interest rate parity (UIP). Specifically, we test whether the interest rate expectations for individual forecasters are in line with their exchange rate...