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International risk-sharing in a fragmented world

Bianchi, Javier; Horn, Sebastian; Rosso, Giovanni; Sosa … - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016074466

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International Risk-Sharing in a Fragmented World

Bianchi, Javier; Horn, Sebastian; Rosso, Giovanni; Sosa … - 2026

Book / Working Paper

Collateral advantage : exchange rates, capital flows, and global cycles

Devereux, Michael B.; Engel, Charles; Wu, Steve Pak Yeung - 2026 - This version: 3 July 2026

We construct a two-country New Keynesian model in which the U.S. enjoys an “exorbitant privilege” as its government bonds are desired by banks both in the U.S. and abroad as superior collateral. In times of global stress, the dollar appreciates since the demand for high quality collateral...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016090716

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Collateral advantage : exchange rates, capital flows, and global cycles

Devereux, Michael B.; Engel, Charles; Wu, Steve Pak Yeung - 2026

Book / Working Paper

Collateral Advantage : Exchange Rates, Capital Flows and Global Cycles

Devereux, Michael B.; Engel, Charles; Wu, Steve Pak Yeung - 2023

Book / Working Paper

Collateral Advantage : Exchange Rates, Capital Flows, and Global Cycles

Devereux, Michael B.; Engel, Charles; Wu, Steve Pak Yeung - 2022

Book / Working Paper

Heaven or Earth? : The Evolving Role of Global Shocks for Domestic Monetary Policy

Forbes, Kristin; Ha, Jongrim; Kose, M. Ayhan - 2026

Business cycles are increasingly driven by global shocks, rather than the domestic demand shocks prominent in earlier decades, posing challenges for central banks seeking to meet domestic mandates and communicate their policy decisions. This paper analyzes the evolving influence and...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015611111

US macroeconomic shocks and international business cycle

Wesołowski, Grzegorz; Gurshev, Oleg - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015373329

Global macro-financial cycles and spillovers

Ha, Jongrim; Kose, M. Ayhan; Otrok, Christopher M.; … - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015558693

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Global macro-financial cycles and spillovers

Ha, Jongrim; Kose, M. Ayhan; Otrok, Christopher M.; … - 2025

Book / Working Paper

Global macro-financial cycles and spillovers

Ha, Jongrim; Kose, M. Ayhan; Otrok, Christopher M.; … - 2020 - This version: February 2020

Edition: This version: February 2020

Book / Working Paper

Global macro-financial cycles and spillovers

Ha, Jongrim; Kose, M. Ayhan; Otrok, Christopher M.; … - 2020

Book / Working Paper

Global macro-financial cycles and spillovers

Ha, Jongrim; Kose, M. Ayhan; Otrok, Christopher M.; … - 2020

Book / Working Paper

Global macro-financial cycles and spillovers

Ha, Jongrim; Kose, M. Ayhan; Otrok, Christopher M.; … - 2020

Book / Working Paper

Using Global Shocks to Understand the Level and Structure of Executive Compensation

Hummels, David; Munch, Jakob Roland; Zhang, Huilin - 2026

We build a model of CEO compensation that unites principal-agent and assignment models in the face of trade shocks that interact with CEO effort. The model predicts that trade shocks change CEO compensation through scale, volatility, and ability-magnification channels. Using Danish matched...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015626333

Which global cycle? : a stochastic factor selection approach for global macro-financial cycles

Berger, Tino; Hienzsch, Sebastian - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015461631

Mind the KF* Gap : EME Vulnerabilities to Global Shocks

Burger, John D.; Warnock, Francis E.; Warnock, Veronica C. - 2026

Emerging market economies (EMEs) have historically been vulnerable to external shocks. Recently the global economy has experienced several major shocks yet EMEs have been remarkably resilient. Some of this improved performance can be attributed to prudent policies and stronger economic...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016063259

Weltwirtschaft : trügerische Stabilität

Obst, Thomas; Kolev-Schaefer, Galina - 2025 - Stand: Dezember 2025

Die Weltwirtschaft zeigt im Herbst 2025 trotz erheblicher geopolitischer Spannungen und handelspolitischer Konflikte eine trügerische Stabilität und blieb im Jahresverlauf erstaunlich robust. Der globale Warenhandel lag in den ersten neun Monaten - getrieben durch Vorzieheffekte in Erwartung...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015557179

The anatomy of emerging-market business cycles : global financial shocks and supply-like transmission

Gambetti, Luca; Petrella, Ivan; Pollastri, Alessandro; … - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015644933

This time is global: synchronisation in economic policy uncertainty indices

Medel, Carlos A. - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015475321

Monetary cooperation during global inflation surges

Fornaro, Luca; Romei, Federica - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016061589

Sectoral Debt and Global Dollar Cycles in Developing Economies

Han, Bada; Ahmed, Rashad; Aizenman, Joshua; Jinjarak, Yothin - 2024

We explore the role of sectoral debt dynamics in shaping business cycles in a sample of 52 Emerging Market Economies (EMEs) and Frontier Market Economies (FMEs) from 2005 to 2021. Higher household debt levels and growth are associated with significantly slower GDP growth in more developed EMEs...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014486174

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Sectoral Debt and Global Dollar Cycles in Developing Economies

Han, Bada - 2024

Book / Working Paper

Currency Dominance Is Not Forever : Some Insights from a Non-Linear Dynamic Model

Bordo, Michael D.; Bastidon, Cécile - 2026

We propose stress tests based on an original International Monetary System (IMS) model with regime switchings. The model is calibrated for nine reference currencies from the beginning of the Classical Gold Standard to the present. Regime switchings in currency dominance are related to...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016086027

A Neoclassical Model of the World Financial Cycle

Bai, Yan; Kehoe, Patrick J.; Lopez, Pierlauro; Perri, … - 2025

Emerging markets face large and persistent fluctuations in sovereign spreads. To what extent are these fluctuations driven by local shocks versus financial conditions in advanced economies? To answer this question, we develop a neoclassical business cycle model of a world economy with an...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015326435

Internationale Konjunkturprognose und konjunkturelle Szenarien für die Jahre 2023 bis 2028

Drygalla, Andrej; Holtemöller, Oliver; Lindner, Axel - 2024

In der vorliegenden Studie werden zunächst die weltweiten konjunkturellen Aussichten für das Ende des Jahres 2023 und für die Jahre 2024 bis 2028 dargestellt. Dabei wird folgender Länderkreis betrachtet: Deutschland, Belgien, Dänemark, Frankreich, Griechenland, Großbritannien, Irland,...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014528191

In search of dominant drivers of the real exchange rate

Miyamoto, Wataru; Nguyen, Thuy Lan; Oh, Hyunseung - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015463268

Exchange rates and economic growth during the global business cycle : the role of labor market institutions

Kuokštis, Vytautas; Asali, Muhammad; Spurga, Simonas … - 2024

The effect of exchange rate regimes on economic performance is one of the key questions in international economics, both academically and policy-wise. Based on the theory of Optimum Currency Areas (OCA), we examine how labor market regulations affect the relationship between exchange rate...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015163468

Playing with Blocs : Quantifying Decoupling

Bonadio, Barthélémy; Huo, Zhen; Kang, Elliot; … - 2025

We adopt a data-driven approach to measure trade fragmentation over the period 2015-2023. Countries are classified into three groups according to changes in their trade costs with the US and China: those shifting toward the US bloc, those shifting toward the China bloc, and those with no change...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015464470

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Playing with blocs : quantifying decoupling

Bonadio, Barthelemy; Huo, Zhen; Kang, Elliot; … - 2025

Book / Working Paper

The effect of the global financial cycle on national financial cycles : evidence from BRICS countries

Tian, Xin - 2024

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015417602

Trade and economic activity : nonlinear modeling and forecasting

Borin, Alessandro; Gazzani, Andrea; Mancini, Michele - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015464637

Macroeconomic effects of global shocks : policy lessons for the SADC region

Funyina, Teddy K.; Chanda, Cosam S.; Chipili, Jonathan M. - 2024

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014537395

International trade fluctuations : global versus regional factors

Beck, Krzysztof; Jackson, Karen - 2024

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014545278

Global Shocks, Institutional Development, and Trade Restrictions : What Can We Learn from Crises and Recoveries Between 1990 and 2022?

Aizenman, Joshua; Itō, Hiro; Park, Donghyun; Saadaoui, … - 2025

The Global Financial Crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic were two major shocks to the world economy in the 21st century. In this study, we analyze the patterns of recessions and recoveries of 101 advanced and developing economies. We identify the turning points of recessions and expansions between...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015409788

Tradeoffs over Rate Cycles : Activity, Inflation and the Price Level

Forbes, Kristin; Ha, Jongrim; Kose, M. Ayhan - 2025

Central banks often face tradeoffs in how their monetary policy decisions impact economic activity (including employment), inflation and the price level. This paper assesses how these tradeoffs have evolved over time and varied across countries, with a focus on understanding the post-pandemic...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015409857

Monetary Stabilization of Sectoral Tariffs

Bergin, Paul R.; Corsetti, Giancarlo - 2025

Central banks around the world have grappled with the question of how to respond to the mix of inflationary and output implications of a trade war. Recent tariff changes have impacted a wider cross-section of goods than was true in the previous tariff round, targeting final consumption goods in...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015409876

Propagation of economic shocks from the United States, China, the European Union, and Japan to selected Asian economies : does the global value chain matters?

Hendrati, Ignatia Martha; Heriqbaldi, Unggul; Padilla, … - 2023

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014247763

Frühlings-Prognose der österreichischen Wirtschaft 2023-2024 : robuster Arbeitsmarkt stützt Konjunktur

Ertl, Martin; Fortin, Ines; Grozea-Helmenstein, Daniela; … - 2023

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014248536

Volatile Rates, Fragile Growth : Global Financial Risk and Productivity Dynamics

Gornemann, Nils; Rojas, Eugenio; Saffie, Felipe - 2025

We document that rising volatility in U.S. interest rates, a key dimension of global financial risk, notably depresses the trend of economic activity in emerging market economies (EMEs) but not in advanced economies (AEs). Using a panel state-space model, we show that a one standard- deviation...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015560720

The global dollar cycle

Obstfeld, Maurice; Zhou, Haonan - 2022

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014324953

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The Global Dollar Cycle

Obstfeld, Maurice; Zhou, Haonan - 2023

Book / Working Paper

The global dollar cycle

Obstfeld, Maurice; Zhou, Haonan - 2023

Book / Working Paper

The Global Dollar Cycle

Obstfeld, Maurice; Zhou, Haonan - 2023

Book / Working Paper

Connected for Better or Worse? The Role of Production Networks in Financial Crises

Miranda-Pinto, Jorge; Rojas, Eugenio; Saffie, Felipe; … - 2025

We study how production networks shape the severity of Sudden Stops. We build a small open economy model with collateral constraints and input-output linkages, derive a sufficient statistic that maps network structure into the amplification of tradable shocks, and show that a planner optimally...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015560729

Demand for safe assets and spillovers from the global dollar cycle

Allen, Cian; Bems, Rudolfs; Boer, Lukas; Moussa, Racha - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015419389

Is a Global Recession Imminent?

Guenette, Justin Damien; Kose, M. Ayhan; Sugawara, Naotaka - 2023

Global growth prospects have deteriorated significantly since the beginning of the year, raising the specter of global recession. This paper relies on insights gleaned from previous global recessions to analyze the recent evolution of economic activity and policies and presents plausible...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014259927

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Is a Global Recession Imminent?

Guenette, Justin Damien; Kose, M. Ayhan; Sugawara, Naotaka - 2022

Book / Working Paper

Is a Global Recession Imminent?

Guenette, Justin Damien - 2022

Book / Working Paper

Herbst-Prognose der österreichischen Wirtschaft 2023-2024 : auf milde Rezession folgt verhaltener Aufschwung

Bonin, Holger; Ertl, Martin; Fortin, Ines; … - 2023

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015078392

Reserve Asset Competition and the Global Fiscal Cycle

Jiang, Zhengyang; Richmond, Robert J. - 2024

Governments tend to increase their borrowing at the same time, giving rise to a global fiscal cycle. This global fiscal cycle has a large component that is unexplained by global business cycle variables. We propose a novel explanation for the emergence of the global fiscal cycle: governments'...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015056167

Frühjahrsgutachten ...

Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der … - Wiesbaden : Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der … - 2024-

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014631305

Prognose der österreichischen Wirtschaft 2023-2027 : Rückkehr zum verhaltenen Trendwachstum

Bonin, Holger; Ertl, Martin; Fortin, Ines; … - 2023

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014314312

Aggregate Properties of Open Economy Models with Expanding Varieties

Bhattarai, Saroj; Kucheryavyy, Konstantin - 2022

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10013353482

The performance of emerging markets during the Fed's easing and tightening cycles : a cross-country resilience analysis

Aizenman, Joshua; Park, Donghyun; Qureshi, Irfan A.; … - 2024

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015076323

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The Performance of Emerging Markets During The Fed's Easing and Tightening Cycles : A Cross-Country Resilience Analysis

Aizenman, Joshua; Park, Donghyun; Qureshi, Irfan A.; … - 2024

Book / Working Paper

Foreign shocks as granular fluctuations

Di Giovanni, Julian; Levchenko, Andrei A.; Méjean, Isabelle - 2024

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014502343

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Foreign shocks as granular fluctuations

Di Giovanni, Julian; Levchenko, Andrei A.; Méjean, Isabelle - 2020

Book / Working Paper

Foreign Shocks as Granular Fluctuations

Di Giovanni, Julian; Levchenko, Andrei A.; Méjean, Isabelle - 2022

Book / Working Paper

Foreign Shocks as Granular Fluctuations

Di Giovanni, Julian; Levchenko, Andrei A.; Méjean, Isabelle - 2020

Book / Working Paper

Global vs. group-specific business cycles : the importance of defining the groups

Berger, Tino; Wortmann, Marcus - 2022

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10013166201

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Global vs. group-specific business cycles : the importance of defining the groups

Berger, Tino; Wortmann, Marcus - 2018

Book / Working Paper

US uncertainty shocks on real and financial markets : a multi-country perspective

Gómez González, José Eduardo; Hirs-Garzon, Jorge; … - 2024

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015413116

Identifying the Common Component in International Economic Fluctuations

Lumsdaine, Robin L.; Prasad, Eswar S. - 2022

In this paper, we develop an aggregation procedure using time-varying weights for constructing the common component in international economic fluctuations. The methodology for deriving time-varying weights is based on some stylized features of the data documented in the paper. The model allows...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10013322115

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Identifying the Common Component in International Economic Fluctuations

Lumsdaine, Robin L. - 1997

Book / Working Paper

Aggregate properties of open economy models with expanding varieties

Bhattarai, Saroj; Kucheryavyy, Konstantin - 2022

We present a unified dynamic framework to study the interconnections between international trade and business cycle models. We prove an aggregate equivalence between a competitive, representative firm model that has aggregate production externalities and dynamic trade models that feature...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10013332104

Global Indeterminacy in HANK Economies

Acharya, Sushant; Benhabib, Jess - 2024

We show that in Heterogeneous-Agent New-Keynesian (HANK) economies with countercyclical risk the natural interest rate is endogenous and co-moves with output, leaving the economy susceptible to self-fulfilling fluctuations. Unlike in Representative-Agent New-Keynesian models, the Taylor...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014544740

An Analysis of Pandemic-Era Inflation in 11 Economies

Blanchard, Olivier; Bernanke, Ben - 2024

In a collaborative project with ten central banks, we have investigated the causes of the post-pandemic global inflation, building on our earlier work for the United States. Globally, as in the United States, pandemic-era inflation was due primarily to supply disruptions and sharp increases in...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014544809

What happens in China does not stay in China

Barcelona, William L.; Cascaldi-Garcia, Danilo; Hoek, … - 2022

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10013466886

Macroeconomic effects of global shocks in the GCC : evidence from Saudi Arabia

Mohaddes, Kamiar; Raissi, Mehdi; Sarangi, Niranjan - 2022

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10013482555

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Macroeconomic effects of global shocks in the GCC : evidence from Saudi Arabia

Mohaddes, Kamiar; Raissi, Mehdi; Sarangi, Niranjan - 2020

Book / Working Paper