Compared with the relatively straightforward definition of a default event, assessing sovereign debt sustainability remains a grey area. The interaction between fiscal choices, lenders' expectations and economic uncertainty creates a setting in which-particularly when a default...

Once a famous tale of conquest, law and foreign bond markets, the saga of the Silesian Bonds of 1734-37 is missing from the literature on sovereign debt. The Silesian Bonds were among the earliest foreign currency sovereign bonds issued. They go into the market 84 years prior to the 1818...

For more than five decades, the World Bank’s premier annual publication on debt, now titled the International Debt Report (IDR), along with the associated International Debt Statistics (IDS) database, has helped shape policies in development finance by sharing timely and comprehensive external...

We examine how banks' depositor composition shapes lending behavior, using granular supervisory data on deposits, loans, and securities for the largest U.S. banks. Classifying banks by depositor specialization, we find persistent differences in funding that translate to differences in asset...

The EIB Lending Report shows where and how the EIB Group invested in 2024 - by country, sector, and priority - supporting climate, innovation and energy security across and beyond the European Union. It breaks down investment by the EIB Group's two entities, the European Investment Bank and the...

This paper is the first comprehensive analysis of the secured lending practices of Chinese creditors in emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs). We present a new dataset and detailed case studies of collateralized public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) loans from Chinese state-owned...

I develop a dynamic macroeconomic model of a small open economy to identify two key vulnerabilities that prevent emerging markets from fully integrating into global markets: high financial integration costs and their low position in the international monetary hierarchy. These vulnerabilities...

This paper provides novel microlevel evidence that cross-border bank flows are an important means for households to access credit, not only in emerging markets but also in advanced economies. Using supervisory bank-level data alongside household credit and consumption data from Germany, we study...

The World Bank Group considers itself a "Knowledge Bank." The Bank's knowledge work contributes to development outcomes both by informing clients in various policy and reform areas, and by informing staff and clients on the selection, design, and implementation of lending operations. This...

Twenty years after the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) debt relief initiative, debt levels in low-income countries are rising again, renewing sustainability concerns. The prevailing view suggests that China and other emerging lenders exploited the HIPC initiative to expand lending. Using...

The pace of globalization has slowed since the global financial crisis, raising concerns about widespread deglobalization and market fragmentation. We examine the effects of a deglobalization shock on bank lending, firm internal capital markets, and the real economy. Leveraging a unique dataset...

The pace of globalization has slowed since the global financial crisis, raising concerns about widespread deglobalization and market fragmentation. We examine the effects of a deglobalization shock on bank lending, firm internal capital markets, and the real economy. Leveraging a unique dataset...

Non-US global banks are an important driver of the international synchronization of house price growth. A loosening (tightening) of US dollar funding conditions leads non-US global banks to expand (contract) their international lending, which is largely denominated in US dollars. This induces a...

How do violent conflicts shape cross-border lending? Using data on syndicated loans by 14,021 creditors to firms in 179 countries (1989-2020), we document a dual effect: foreign banks reduce overall lending relative to domestic banks but significantly increase financing to military and dual-use...

There have been major developments in the global economy and sovereign debt markets since the Fund’s stocktaking in 2020. The contractual framework for the resolution of privately held sovereign debt has evolved further. Progress has been made in certain areas, although gaps still remain

This paper examines how IMF policies contribute to the inequality in MENA, and to a Middle-Income Trap (MIT). Developing a theory expanding Acemoglu and Robinson's "Narrow Corridor" framework, it shows how IMF conditions align domestic elite incentives with creditor interests through a...

Using a database of emerging market fundamentals and bond index spreads across 56 frontier and emerging market countries rated below investment grade during the period 2002-22, we assess whether IMF arrangements can restore access to international capital markets (ICM) for countries in distress...

We study sovereign external debt crises over the past 200 years, with a focus on creditor losses, or "haircuts". Our sample covers 327 sovereign debt restructurings with external private creditors over 205 default spells since 1815. Creditor losses vary widely (from none to 100%), but the...

This paper challenges the prevailing view in the sovereign debt literature by arguing that sovereign debt markets, in many respects, behave similarly to other credit markets. These markets are hierarchical rather than flat, inherently hybrid in nature, blending elements of public order and...

According to the IMF, the current public debt makes up nearly 40 percent of the global debt, marking the highest share since the mid-1960s. Despite the vast research on alarming levels of sovereign default, the literature remains inconclusive. This paper investigates macroeconomic, financial,...

This book explores the IMF's engagement in Europe in the aftermath of the 2008 global financial crisis. It explains the nature and consequences of the assistance provided to Greece, Ireland, Portugal, and Cyprus by the "troika" – the IMF, European Central Bank, and European Commission. It also...

Purpose: Existing research on uncertainty and bank lending has focused entirely on aggregate uncertainty (i.e., economic policy uncertainty) and its subcomponents, but not considering other uncertainty measures from the specif-ic perspective of financial markets, especially the banking sector....

The Common Framework for Sovereign Debt Restructuring provides a process for easing debt burdens on low-income countries but has operated too slowly for the four countries that have so far sought relief under it. Official bilateral creditors that are not members of the Paris Club are often...

In 2021, the G20 committed to reallocate USD 100 billion of the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) recent allocation of Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) to low-income and vulnerable middle-income countries. However, most of these donations have been made to the IMF's Poverty Reduction and Growth...

This paper explores the catalytic impact of IMF lending to Low-Income Countries on Official Development Assistance (ODA) during 1990-2019. It disentangles the effect on the amounts of ODA on countries’ participation in IMF programs (“extensive margin”) and the size of the IMF-supported...

Many developing countries are still grappling with the consequences of the pandemic and the associated high debt burdens while facing huge financing needs, inter alia related to climate change. In response, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) issued $650 billion in Special Drawing Rights...