So-called "connector" countries have been argued to benefit from the US-China trade tensions, given their rising share in US imports. This paper draws an important distinction between trade reallocation-countries increase domestic production to substitute for declining Chinese exports to the...

We explore the impact of export quality on the levels of exports and domestic trade. First, we developed a theoretical framework, using the two-country oligopolistic model with quality differentials in product. We find that a consumer-preference driven increase in export quality improves export...

The gravity model, which is applied to international trade, explains the conceptual models of international business. It has been used in various areas of the global economy, such as trade, foreign direct investment, and even the determinants of tourist demand at the level of countries and...

This paper investigates the elusive role of productivity heterogeneity in new trade models in the trade and environment nexus. We contrast the Eaton-Kortum and the Melitz models with firm heterogeneity to the Armington and Krugman models without heterogeneity. We show that if firms have a...

The question of whether trade agreements are 'stepping stones' or 'stumbling blocks' to multilateral trade liberalization is not a new one; however, the empirical methods and the quality of the data used to address this question are continually improving. This paper explores this familiar...

Trade agreements are powerful drivers of global economic integration, leading to increased trade flows between countries. Usually, trade agreements are extensive documents with hundreds of provisions and different levels of enforceability. Are all these provisions useful, even those that are...

This paper investigates the elusive role of productivity heterogeneity in new trade models in the trade and environment nexus. We contrast the Eaton-Kortum and the Melitz models with firm heterogeneity to the Armington and Krugman models without heterogeneity. We show that if firms have a...

This paper investigates the role of firm heterogeneity in environmentally extended new trade models, contrasting Eaton-Kortum and Melitz models to Armington and Krugman models. We show that when emissions per sales are constant across firms -- a standard assumption in the literature -- all four...

Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has triggered profound structural changes in the country's economy, reshaping patterns of foreign trade, foreign direct investment and sectoral specialisation. This paper analyses the shifts in Ukraine's trade and investment structures...

The EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) came into force on 1 October 2023, introducing reporting requirements for importers of covered products and, from 2026, an obligation to pay a fee on the carbon content of imported goods. This paper uses indices of ad valorem tariffs to assess the...

This paper provides the first causal estimate of the economic impact of interlinking payment systems across countries. We exploit a new dataset of payment systems interlinking initiatives, which identifies over 2,000 connections, and employ standard gravity methods to estimate their impact on...

In this paper we explain and review the Decision Support Model (DSM) methodology, for planning and assessing export promotion activities. This model was first presented in the International Journal of Research in Marketing in 1995 by Cuyvers et al. (1995) and applied to the case of Belgium. We...

This paper shows that immigrants not only have differential effects on trade based on their skill levels but that they play an additional role in facilitating bilateral trade if their origin country has a higher level of corruption and weaker institutions. Using immigrant stock across skill...

This paper highlights an underexplored margin of heterogeneity that shapes resilience to disruptions in global maritime trade - the differential reliance of countries and sectors on specific categories of vessels. We combine US bills of lading records with ship registry and AIS-based port call...

Geopolitical conflicts generate macroeconomic spillovers that extend beyond directly affected countries through trade and commodity linkages. This paper quantifies these effects for Germany, France, Italy, and Spain using a monthly Trade-Related Conflict Exposure (TRCE) index for 2009–2023...

This paper highlights an underexplored margin of heterogeneity that shapes resilience to disruptions in global shipping - the differential reliance of countries and sectors on specific categories of vessels. We combine US bills of lading records with ship registry and AIS-based port call data to...

Global growth is projected at 3.3 percent for 2026 and 3.2 percent for 2027, revised slightly up since the October 2025 World Economic Outlook. Technology investment, fiscal and monetary support, accommodative financial conditions, and private sector adaptability offset trade policy shifts....

This paper reexamines the trade creation effects of migration using a large sample of 180 countries from 1995 to 2023. We estimate a structural gravity model of bilateral trade augmented with migration stocks, investigating whether immigration to OECD countries relates to the extensive and...

Debates on the EU's economy focus on the competitiveness gap, a narrative that encourages export-first policies. This is the wrong focus, as prosperity depends mainly on domestic productivity. Therefore, the EU's key challenges are weak productivity and, more recently, economic security. Trade...

Letters of credit are a key trade finance instrument that covers more than 10 percent of global trade, with a notably larger role in low-and middle-income economies. Studying detailed trade data from Viet Nam, we document how letter of credit use varies with firm characteristics. We show that...

We consider five models of international trade that belong to the class of models in which the trade elasticity and domestic trade share are sufficient statistics for the welfare cost of autarky. Three are fixed-variety models featuring increasing micro-level margins of adjustment: versions of...

This paper presents a method for estimating treatment effects of local climate shocks when regions trade with each other. Because trade creates spillovers, comparing the change in outcomes of regions with different exposure to shocks leads to biased estimates. We model these between-region...

This paper provides a historical perspective on comparatively low levels of trade in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, focusing on studies addressing the impact of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Our literature review identifies best practices and reviews trade potential...

This study examines the short-run dynamics and long-run determinants of bilateral trade between Saudi Arabia (KSA) and Jordan during the period of 1995-2024 using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach. Employing a country-pair time series framework, the analysis...

This paper develops a dynamic real-options model of tariff deterrence in which the exporting country, though subject to the importing country's market power, assumes the role of leader in a Stackelberg framework under uncertainty by acting preventively to dissuade the importer from imposing a...

This paper examines how logistics performance conditions the relationship between trade openness, economic growth and per capita CO₂ emissions in Mediterranean economies. Using an unbalanced panel of 20 countries over the period 2007-2022, we combine static fixed-effects, dynamic panel...

Vietnam's wooden forest products industry is an important export sector, contributing to industrial growth and employment. However, it is facing increasing pressures related to challenges such as forest and export sustainability. Despite its potential, Vietnam's export performance remains uneven...