Customs data reveal heterogeneity and granularity of relationships among buyers and sellers. A key insight is how more exports to a destination break down into more firms selling there and more buyers per exporter. We develop a quantitative general equilibrium model of firm-to-firm matching...

On the eve of its 60th anniversary, the gravity model of trade is a "celebrity", due to its intuitive appeal, solid theoretical foundations, and remarkable empirical success. Yet, many economists still view gravity simply as an intuitive but naive reduced-form estimating equation and apply it...

Purpose - This study aims at evaluating the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the export trade system for Mauritius during the first half of 2020 (January 2020-June 2020). Design/methodology/approach - An initial analysis of the monthly export time series data proves that on the whole, the...

Purpose: This study constructs a quantitative tool that can interpret the effects of trade protectionism on trading partners. Design/methodology/approach: Trade protectionist policies are a crucial phenomenon of international political economy. The existing literature has analyzed the...

This paper shows that manufacturing exporters export goods that they have not produced and thus also act as trade intermediaries. This exporting of “sourced” products is ubiquitous across firms, products, and destinations. Using the geographic dimension of the data, we uncover that almost...

This paper investigates how changes in skilled and unskilled labor supply affect different margins ofexports. Using bilateral trade data in manufacturing sectors of 34 countries from 1995 to 2010, we find thatmost of the impact of skilled labor on exports goes through the intensive margin,...

This paper studies global trade responses to the US-China trade war. It estimates the tariff impacts on product-level exports to the US, China, and rest of world. On average, countries decreased exports to China and increased exports to the US and rest of world. Most countries export products...

This study investigates how easing international transactions through improved legal institutions can result in divergent trade patterns for different economies. We provide evidence that the level of development governs the relevance of intellectual property rights (IPR) institutions in...

"The Belt and Road Initiative promotes connectivity among countries and regions along the route and is a powerful tool for the Chinese government to respond to the rise of trade protectionism and the restructuring and shift of global industrial chains in the post-epidemic era. This study...

Motivated by increasing trade and fragmentation of production across countries since World War II, we build a dynamic two-country model featuring sequential, multistage production and capital accumulation. As trade costs decline over time, global-value-chain (GVC) trade expands across countries,...

This study examines the relationship between Japan's manufactured exports to individual markets and the economic activities of foreign manufacturing affiliates of Japanese multinational corporations (MNCs) and U.S. MNCs in those markets. First, the relationships between Japanese export levels...

This paper investigates the sources of terms of trade volatility, specifically addressing the relative importance of goods-price effects vs. country-price effects. For fuel exporters, most of the terms of trade variation stems from goods-price effects, as one would have expected, a priori. For...

Combining two new datasets on sanctions and agricultural trade and implementing step-by-step the latest developments in the empirical structural gravity literature, we investigate the effects of sanctions on international trade of agricultural products. We find that trade sanctions have been...

This paper maps out the trade relationship in goods between the two largest trading blocs in the global economy - the EU and US. We use detailed product category information to provide an in-depth description of current trade flows between the two markets, with a particular focus on how Irish-US...

The increasing returns revolution in trade is incomplete in an important respect there exists no compelling empirical demonstration of the role of increasing returns in determining production and trade structure. One reason is that trade patterns of the canonical increasing returns models are a...

The sudden and abrupt rise of COVID-19 became a challenge for the world economy. In this paper, we investigate the changes in a trend of mutual trade between the EU-15 countries and China during the demanding times of the COVID-19 crisis. We use monthly data for Chinese exports to the E.U....

The Ricardian model predicts that countries should produce and export relatively more in industries in which they are relatively more productive. Though one of the most celebrated insights in the theory of international trade, this prediction has received virtually no attention in the empirical...

In this paper, we develop a novel theory of cross-border mergers and acquisitions. Firms can choose between different modes of foreign market access: exporting, greenfield FDI, and cross-border M&A. Our theory is based on three key ideas. First is heterogeneity in firms' capabilities. Second,...

Since 1977, and in some cases starting before that, most East Asian countries' export patterns in manufacturing have been transformed from industry distributions typical of developing countries to distributions more like those of advanced countries. The process of change in most cases started...

Models with constant-elasticity of substitution (CES) preferences are commonly employed in the international trade literature because they provide a tractable way to handle product differentiation in general equilibrium. However this tractability comes at the cost of generating a set of...

Not surprisingly, big countries trade more than small countries. In this paper we use data on shipments by 110 exporters to 59 importers in 5,000 product categories to ask: how? Do big countries trade larger quantities of a common set of goods (the intensive margin), a larger set of goods (the...

This paper investigates the determinants of business cycle comovement between countries. Our dataset includes over 100 countries, both developed and developing. We search for variables that are robust' in explaining comovement, using the approach of Leamer (1983). Variables considered are (i)...

This paper attempts to examine the impact of an East Asia FTA on trade patterns in East Asia by using a multi-sector computable general equilibrium model. The model used in this analysis is the standard GTAP model and GTAP database developed by Hertel (1997) and his colleagues of Purdue...

We map United States comparative advantage between 1980 and 1995, by trading partner and region, using Balassa's export-based index of Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA). We find: temporally stable and ubiquitous US comparative advantage in differentiated producer goods (except disadvantage in...

While China experienced a dramatic drop in trade with the U.S due to the outbreak of the trade war in the mid-2018, the U.S. trade increased with third countries such as Vietnam. This paper uses the monthly US Census data at the HS 6-digit level spanning from January 2016 to December 2020 to...

Motivated by increasing trade and fragmentation of production across countries since World War II, we build a dynamic two-country model featuring sequential, multi-stage production and capital accumulation. As trade costs decline over time, global-value-chain (GVC) trade expands across...

This paper decomposes the growth of China’s export into three parts: growth in the extensive margin, increased quantity and increased prices; we perform a series of empirical analyses using China’s export data at HS-6 digit to analyze the characteristics of China’s export growth. From 1995...

This paper analyzes the consequences of cross-border mergers in a spatial framework, thereby distinguishing three channels of influence: a price increase due to the elimination of product market competition, an adjustment in plant location which reduces overall transportation cost expenditures,...

Following Turkey's application for EU membership in 1987, a Customs Union (CU) between Turkey and the EU, mainly covering trade in manufacturing goods and processed agricultural products, came into effect in 1995. In addition to a large agricultural sector, Turkey also specializes in the...

I study the first modern global banking crisis that began in London in 1866 and provide causal evidence that financial sector disruptions can reshape international trade patterns for decades. Using newly collected archival loan records that link banks to their operations abroad, I estimate that...

Roughly one-third of world trade is intrafirm trade. This paper starts by unveiling two systematic patterns in the volume of intrafirm trade. In a panel of industries, the share of intrafirm imports in total U.S. imports is significantly higher, the higher the capital intensity of the exporting...

This paper studies a simple model of buyer investment and its effect on the variety and vertical structure of international trade. A distinction is made between two types of buyer investment: "flexible" and "specific." Their interactions with the entry and pricing incentives of suppliers are...