Export diversification, or the breadth of exports of an economy, is increasingly seen as a means of accelerating economic growth, mitigating instability due to price, demand, and exchange rate fluctuations, and stabilizing earnings from exports in the long run. As economies integrate into global...

Since the onset of globalisation, production activities have become increasingly fragmented and organised in global value chains (GVC). These networks facilitate trade in intermediaries across industrial sectors and countries and change the conditions for policies to respond to shocks. In this...

Global value chains (GVCs) have shaped the dynamics of globalisation in recent years. This paper reviews key concepts and tools to measure countries’ involvement in GVCs, explores recent trends and investigates the underlying drivers of GVC participation empirically. The analysis in the paper...

This paper compares two alternative growth paths, assessing the effects on productivity of specialisation in natural resources (NR) and in technologically advanced products. The empirical analysis exploits product-level export data for 109 developing and 51 developed economies over the period...

This article proposes a novel framework to investigate how globalisation affects workers' share of value added. We explore functional income distribution by looking at industrial interdependence and thus identifying GVCs as the unit of analysis; we then track inputs composition and their labour...

This paper, using a long-term, product-level cross-country dataset, analyzes the trade-growth nexus by introducing two novel indicators able to capture demand and supply attributes of countries' quality of specialization. The Keynesian efficiency index measures demand attractiveness of the...

We analyze how trade affects aggregate volatility using a multi-country, multiindustry, and multi-destination framework. We decompose aggregate output growth risk into destination risk, origin risk, and idiosyncratic risk (and their covariances). We then use this framework to run counterfactuals...

The paper analyses the interindustry spillover effects of bilateral trade conflicts using the example of the 2018-2019 China-USA bilateral trade war. Empirical results are produced using a new heuristic method based on hypothetical extraction and substitution in an International Input-Output...

Growth in international trade and globalization has been correlated in nearly all countries with a worsening of the less skilled labor situation relative to the skilled. In this empirical paper, I show that an important component of recent globalization in France has been a huge growth in...

Many previous tests of Heckscher-Ohlin trade theory have found underwhelming support for the idea that countries' endowments determine their production and trade. This paper demonstrates that those efforts suffer from their focus on the narrower of the model's two potential equilibria, which...

We estimate the effect of factor proportions on the pattern of manufacturing specialization in a cross-section of OECD countries, taking into account that factor accumulation responds to productivity. We show that the failure to control for productivity differences produces biased estimates. Our...

China still serves as a leading production hub in Asia, but it is interesting to look at recent production unbundling in ASEAN and India. Catalyzed by increasing labor costs in China, production networks have begun to extend to ASEAN and India. As ASEAN and India have young and large...

Time is money, and distance matters. We model the interaction of these truisms, and show the implications for global specialization and trade: products where timely delivery is important will be produced near the source of final demand, where wages will be higher as a result. In the model,...

This paper investigates the drivers of global trade at the six-digit product level. The identification is achieved first by estimating the log-linear product-level bilateral trade implications of a model and second by aggregating the fitted estimation results across bilateral countries using...

In einer Studie im Auftrag von Gesamtmetall e.V. untersucht das Kiel Institut für Weltwirtschaft die Auswirkungen des deutschen Sorgfaltspflichtengesetzes, welches im Juni 2021 vom Bundestag verabschiedet wurde. Auf die geplante EU-Richtlinie wird ebenfalls eingegangen. Das Gesetz wird für...

Recent disruptions to global value chains (GVCs) have raised an important question: Can decoupling from GVCs increase a country’s welfare by reducing its exposure to foreign supply shocks? We use a quantitative trade model to simulate GVCs decoupling, defined as increased barriers to global...

This paper analyzes the labor market effects of offshoring in a high-wage home country and how these effects crucially depend on (1) job complexity and (2) the characteristics of the destination country. It thereby links several sources: rich administrative data on individuals and plants in the...

The import content of exports (ICE) is defined as the amount of foreign input embodied in one unit of export, and it has been used as a measure of the degree of integration into the global production network. In this paper, we suggest an alternative measure based on the decomposition of gross...

In this paper, we construct an elaborate general equilibrium model with a continuum of production fragments for an intermediate good, then embed it in a growth model to address the effects of global production fragmentation, vertical specialization and trade on growth and inequality for a small...

The policy brief examines the position of Central, East and Southeast European (CESEE) countries in the global value chain (GVC) network. Effective integration in global value chains has been recognised as one of the important ingredients of economic development. The analysis uses the...

The comparative advantage of many cities is based on their efficiency in the production of "functions", e.g., business services such as finance, law, engineering, or similar functions that are used by firms in a wide range of sectors. Firms that use these functions may choose to source them...

Global value chain (GVC) participation has transformed many lines of business. The benefits it provides in terms of greater specialization and technology diffusion, however, do not spread identically across countries and industries. This paper shows that taking into account the functional...

This paper examines trade integration of East Asian countries through the lens of global value chains (GVCs). It first gauges the extent and involvement of trade in value-added (TiVA) for East Asian countries. The analysis confirms that reliance on backward GVC participation outside of the...

We argue that trade in intermediate inputs, or 'global production sharing,' is a potentially important explanation for the increase in the wage gap between skilled and unskilled workers in the U.S. and elsewhere. Using a simple model of heterogeneous activities within an industry, we show that...

This paper embeds variable effort into a traditional multi-sector model. Effort enters a production function like total-factor-productivity and on the assumption that effort doesn't affect capital depreciation, the capital-cost savings from high effort operations are passed on to workers. The...

There are two principal theories of why countries trade: comparative advantage and increasing returns to scale. Yet there is no empirical work that assesses the relative importance of these two theories in accounting for production structure and trade. We use a framework that nests an increasing...

The comparative advantage of many cities is based on their efficiency in the production of ‘functions’, e.g., business services such as finance, law, engineering, or similar functions that are used by firms in a wide range of sectors. Firms that use these functions may choose to source them...

The core subjects of trade theory are the pattern and volume of trade: which goods are traded by which countries, and how much of those goods are traded. The first part of the paper discusses evidence on comparative advantage, with an emphasis on carefully connecting theory models to data...

Classic trade questions are reconsidered by generalizing a factor-proportions model to multiple countries, multi-stage production, and country-specific trade costs. We derive patterns of production specialization and trade for a matrix of countries that differ in relative endowments (columns)...

We study the relationship between the scope of trade policy cooperation and bilateral trade flows with a particular focus on global value chain (GVC) trade using data on the core and non-core provisions included in preferential trade agreements (PTAs). We find that broader PTAs have a larger...

The contribution of this paper is twofold. First, it uses the available official Input-Output data for the Western Balkans economies to estimate the output and value added multipliers of the sectors identified as being either current or emerging strengths within the context of Smart...