This paper investigates whether economic hardship undermines preferences for honesty. We use controlled, high-stake measures of cheating for private benefit in a large sample of 5,664 Kenyans, exploiting three complementary sources of variation: experimentally manipulated monetary incentives to...

Can developing economies achieve growth that benefits everyone and protects the planet? This report explores how low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) can achieve inclusive and sustainable economic transformation (ISET) - where economic growth benefits all of society and protects our planet....

The paper examines the effect of macroeconomic imbalances on bank lending with emphasis on the exchange rate movement, inflation differential and fiscal deficit. In the study, bank lending is modelled by gross loans and advances, assets quality and risk appetite. The panel GMM model results show...

Micro, Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (MSMEs) are crucial drivers of economic growth. In Kenya, MSMEs represent about 98 percent of all businesses and contribute over 30 percent to the GDP. Despite their essential role in the economy, these enterprises face substantial challenges in...

This study investigates the demand for government securities by Kenyan banks using annual data from 2005 to 2022. Employing a fixed-effects panel regression model, the research examines the factors influencing banks' sovereign debt holdings and their implications for systemic risk. Key findings...

ypical debt sustainability metrics characterize Kenya's sovereign debt as "unsustainable" since around 2019. Further, the data show that, over time, commercial banks' private sector lending has declined while lending to the government has grown. Given these observations, this study examines...

This paper seeks to establish whether the monetary policy stance of Central bank of Kenya (CBK) at the turn of financial markets is pre-emptive or a cleanup. The feedback loop between monetary policy reaction and the markets' response presupposes a sequencing that runs from the former to the...

China has become a major global player in energy finance, infrastructure development and clean technology exports. This report explores the changing nature of China's engagement in energy transitions across Africa, with a focus on three key cases: Kenya, Mozambique and South Africa. Between 2010...

Governments across the Global South have begun introducing biometric IDs (eIDs) in an attempt to improve citizen-state legibility. While such initiatives can improve government efficiency, they also raise important questions about citizen privacy, especially for groups with a history of mistrust...

The analysis of household health financing vulnerability and its impact on health service utilization during the COVID-19 pandemic remains inadequately explored in Kenya. This study was designed to examine the impact of health financing vulnerability on health services utilization during the...

The integration or resettlement efforts aimed at self-reliance of refugees are requisite for their adaptation to social and economic shocks and consequently to their human development and contribution to economic growth. This study analyses the drivers of financial inclusion and social...

This paper estimates the direct and indirect effects of agriculture on health and nutrition using nationally representative survey data collected by the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics in 1994, 1997, 2005 and 2015. The models estimated serve as examples of general frameworks that can be used...

The paper examines the association between fertility and female wage employment in Kenya using nationally representative cross-sectional data collected by the Kenya's National Bureau of Statistics, a government-owned statistical organization. Two findings emerge from our analysis. The first...

How important is government business to the private sector in developing economies? This paper uses administrative tax data on firm-to-firm transactions in Kenya to examine the effects of becoming a government contractor on firm performance. Using an event study design, the paper documents...

Kenya has made important progress in its economic transformation agenda in the past decade, but significant legal and regulatory hurdles continue to impede competition across multiple sectors. Overcoming these barriers is essential because competition is key to increasing the number of jobs to...

Kenya's monetary and external policy environment is solid; however, its fiscal outlook places the country at a crossroads. Fiscal slippage persisted in FY2024-25 with the deficit widening to 5.9 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), compared to the revised budget target of 4.3 percent. The...

This study investigates the relationship between agricultural commercialization and food security among smallholder farmers in Kenya, integrating the Market Structure, Conduct, and Performance (SCP) paradigm with peasant economic theory. Using mixed methods (household survey, participant...

The study examined the effect of fiscal decentralization on healthcare availability outcomes from 23 Kenyan counties during the 2013-2022 devolution period. The results from different robust non-endogeneity econometric methods indicate a significant deleterious effect of fiscal decentralization...

Kenya is at a pivotal moment in advancing prosperity for adolescent girls. With a solid educational base already established, the country has a unique chance to broaden its efforts toward comprehensive empowerment by addressing both economic and social dimensions. Prioritizing school-to-work...

The global economic context improved modestly in 2024, supported by easing inflation and a rebound in global trade. Kenya's economy has slowed despite several improving macroeconomic indicators. The external sector showed improvement, driven by recovering exports and rising financial inflows. A...

Accessible and affordable energy services are a prerequisite for socioeconomic growth and poverty reduction. Yet it is estimated that 600 million people in sub-Saharan Africa will not have access to electricity in 2030. Recent research suggests that universal access to electricity will be...

Agroecology is gaining traction as a possible strategy for enhancing the sustainability and resilience of food systems, prompting increased support from some governments, donors, development organizations and civil society. However, the scope, design and impact of agroecology-related projects in...

This paper analyses the legal frameworks in Kenya and Uganda, and the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) guidelines to ascertain if they are effective in minimising money laundering activities and keeping the countries off of FATF's grey list. The study implements the Two-Pillar methodology that...

This study investigates the economic welfare of refugees and host communities in Kenya, utilizing bi-monthly panel data collected from May 2020 to May 2022. The analysis employs a fixed effect model, which effectively captures the nuances of welfare differences between urban and camp refugees....

This paper examines the relationship between financial inclusion and energy access, leveraging micro-level survey data from Kenya (2016-2018) and employing propensity score matching to establish causal linkages. The analysis reveals that financial inclusion significantly enhances energy access,...