Das deutsche Geschäftsmodell, geprägt durch eine industriebasierte, dienstleistungsergänzte, exportorientierte und regional balancierte Struktur, steht unter erheblichem Druck, Seit 2018 schrumpft die Industrieproduktion, während die Bruttowertschöpfung zwar stabil bleibt, jedoch stagniert,...

Gemäß der aktuellen Konjunkturumfrage des Instituts der deutschen Wirtschaft werden von den Unternehmen in Deutschland vorrangig Wettbewerbsnachteile sowie Handels- und Absatzbeschränkungen im Fall einer konfrontativen Wirtschaftspolitik der neuen US-Administration erwartet. Knapp ein Drittel...

We develop a new model of cycles and crises in emerging markets, featuring an occasionally binding borrowing constraint and stochastic volatility, and estimate it with quarterly data for Mexico since 1981. We propose an endogenous regime‐switching formulation of the occasionally binding...

Timely updates of business cycle fluctuations-commonly represented by movements in the output gap-help policymakers make informed decisions on the appropriate course of action. Unfortunately, business cycle assessments often suffer from lags in actual gross domestic product data releases. This...

We investigate cyclical changes in workers' task portfolios, highlighting their direction, magnitude, and distribution. Task changes are not only very common but provide information about the skills required across jobs. During recessions, a larger share of employer switches do not involve task...

By applying a simple dynamic general equilibrium model without exogenous shocks inhabited by infinitely lived capitalists and workers, we show that a higher degree of relative risk aversion can destabilize an economy. In traditional real business cycle (RBC) theory, a higher degree of relative...

Over the past few decades, fiscal policy has been about 30 percent more procyclical and about 40 percent more volatile in commodity-exporting emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) than in other EMDEs. Both procyclicality and volatility of fiscal policy-which share some underlying...

Libya's economic outlook relies heavily on the oil and gas sector, which constitutes a significant portion of its GDP, government revenue, and exports. With oil production expected to average 1.1 mbpd in 2024, GDP is anticipated to shrink by 2.7 percent this year. As oil output recovers in 2025...

The special topic analyses the results of the questions on investment included in the October-November surveys for the manufacturing and services sectors, enquiring about business investment in 2024, as well as plans for 2025. On aggregate in the EU, managers' assessment of the change in...

Das deutsche Geschäftsmodell, geprägt durch eine industriebasierte, dienstleistungsergänzte, exportorientierte und regional balancierte Struktur, steht unter erheblichem Druck, Seit 2018 schrumpft die Industrieproduktion, während die Bruttowertschöpfung zwar stabil bleibt, jedoch stagniert,...

Gemäß der aktuellen Konjunkturumfrage des Instituts der deutschen Wirtschaft werden von den Unternehmen in Deutschland vorrangig Wettbewerbsnachteile sowie Handels- und Absatzbeschränkungen im Fall einer konfrontativen Wirtschaftspolitik der neuen US-Administration erwartet. Knapp ein Drittel...

I develop a methodology for Bayesian estimation of globally solved, non-linear macroeconomic models. A novel feature of my method is the use of a mixture density network to approximate the distribution of initial states. I use the methodology to estimate a medium-scale, two-agent New Keynesian...

Recent rises in macroeconomic volatility have prompted the introduction of quantile vector autoregression (QVAR) models to forecast macroeconomic risk. This paper provides an extensive evaluation of the predictive performance of QVAR models in a pseudo-out-of-sample experiment spanning 112...

This paper investigates the transmission of monetary policy to financial markets within the Euro area, focusing on the role of uncertainty. While previous research has extensively examined the effects of changes in expected policy rates through event studies of European Central Banks (ECB)...

This paper investigates the role of banking networks in the transmission of shocks across borders. Combining banking deregulation in the US with state-level idiosyncratic demand shocks, we show that geographically diversified banks reallocate funds from economies experiencing negative shocks to...

In Japan, the inflation rate declined to near-zero, whereas the monetary policy faced a zero lower bound (ZLB) in the 1990s. We examine whether trend inflation had fallen to near-zero prior to the ZLB. To achieve this, we estimate Japanese pre-2000 trend inflation developing a Markov-switching...

Nach der Erholung vom Pandemie-Schock, der das Wirtschaftsleben in den Jahren 2020 und 2021 stark beeinträchtigte, kommen die wirtschaftlichen Aktivitäten in Deutschland nunmehr seit drei Jahren nicht mehr über das Niveau des Jahres 2019 hinaus. In dem vorliegenden Beitrag wird eine...

I produce novel evidence on worker reallocation across employers and between employment and nonemployment/unemployment for several European countries over the past two decades. I construct a dataset of monthly transition rates by developing a novel approach to measure them using cross-sectional...

Geographic disparities in mortality rates in the US are pronounced and growing. The Black-White mortality gap is volatile but persistent, while the Rich-Poor mortality gap is increasing dramatically. While the causes of these inequalities are not understood, recent attention has focused on the...