Financial Conditions Indices (FCIs) are a widely used tool for assessing the broader monetary policy stance beyond the central bank's direct control. This paper presents a novel vector autoregressive (VAR) model that includes key macroeconomic variables and maps financial variables into a single...

Inflation dynamics reflect forces operating at different cycles, from short-lived shocks to longterm structural trends. We introduce the sum-of-the-cycles (SOC) method, which exploits this multifrequency structure of inflation for forecasting. SOC decomposes inflation into cyclical components,...

The growing demand for transparency in sustainability reporting has compelled enterprises to look far beyond the boundaries of classical financial ratios when assessing their own performance. Environmental, social, and governance (ESG) indicators have dominated recent academic debate-primarily...

Der Produktionsindex für die Gesamtwirtschaft ist ein neuer zusammengesetzter Konjunkturindikator. Er kombiniert vier Konjunkturindizes, die den größten Teil der Gewerblichen Wirtschaft abdecken: die Produktionsindizes für die Industrie, das Baugewerbe, den Dienstleistungssektor sowie den...

Das Statistische Bundesamt erforscht seit 2020 Passantenfrequenzdaten für die amtliche Statistik. Ziel ist unter anderem, aus den hochfrequenten Zeitreihen einen Konjunkturfrühindikator zu entwickeln, der die wirtschaftliche Situation im lokalen Einzelhandel und im Gastgewerbe am aktuellen...

Das Statistische Bundesamt erforscht seit 2020 Passantenfrequenzdaten für die amtliche Statistik. Ziel ist unter anderem, aus den hochfrequenten Zeitreihen einen Konjunkturfrühindikator zu entwickeln, der die wirtschaftliche Situation im lokalen Einzelhandel und im Gastgewerbe am aktuellen...

Macroeconomic data releases are very important benchmarks of the economy. Therefore, the vast majority of financial market analysts and traders closely monitor both the projected estimates and, the intuitively more impactful actual values. In this research, we focus on the uncertainty associated...

Increasing geopolitical tensions and trade fragmentation are challenging the resilience of global value chains, by undermining the collaborative networks on which they depend. As countries impose trade restrictions or become less reliable partners, companies may reconfigure their supply chains,...

This study addresses the critical need for accurate tourism demand (TD) forecasting in Bulgaria using economic indicators, developing robust predictive models to navigate post-pandemic market volatility. The COVID-19 pandemic exposed tourism's vulnerability to systemic shocks, highlighting...

This study develops a comprehensive econometric framework for assessing market efficiency in sustainability indices through rolling fractional integration analysis. We employ four fractional integration estimators (Andrews-Guggenberger, Robinson GSE, GPH, and FELW) with formal statistical...

Despite the growing importance of rural development, research on place marketing remains fragmented, with no comprehensive systematic literature review (SLR) addressing this field with such focus and detail. The study aims to systematically map scientific publications on place marketing, with a...

GDP growth in the East Asia and Pacific (EAP) region remains above the global average but is projected to slow down in 2025 and even further in 2026. The sluggishness is due to a less favorable external environment-rising trade restrictions, easing but still elevated global uncertainty, and...

Purpose This study aims to elucidate the dynamics of monetary and fiscal policy interactions in Brazil, focusing on the impacts of positive shocks in government consumption and interest rates. By comparing rational and behavioral agent responses, it clarifies how these frameworks influence gross...

This study has two objectives: to identify sector-specific sustainability indicators from the literature and industry and to evaluate their importance through expert input.The analysis was conducted using the Fermatean fuzzy entropy and WASPAS method.The study found that, according to experts,...

This paper introduces a novel application of Growth-at-Risk (GaR) as an early warning system (EWS) for predicting recessions. By transforming GaR into a classification model, we assess its ability to signal economic downturns across 11 Central and Eastern European (CEE) economies from 2005 to...

This paper describes steps to compile a high-frequency indicator of growth to be used for timely monitoring of real sector activity in Liechtenstein. Since the indicator is compiled with methods consistent with those used for national accounts, its development may also serve as an interim step...

In addition to the well-known ifo Business Climate Index for Germany, the ifo Business Survey generates a wide range of further indicators based on monthly responses from around 9,000 companies across all major sectors. These indicators capture current business conditions, expectations,...

This paper proposes a new sustainable development index incorporating informality measures for 36 European countries from 2010 to 2022. This index is estimated via a combination of national accounting, macroestimates of informality, and survey data through partial least squares (PLS) regression,...

The paper compares two forecasts of Slovak GDP, the first with high-frequency data and the second without them. We utilize the last observation from the economic activity index acting as a short-term GDP forecast. We use data from 2000 to 2024 in weekly frequencies and have 27 variables related...

Since the publication of the previous (2022) RISE edition, progress toward universal electrification reversed course for the first time in 20 years. About 685 million people, most of them living in Sub-Saharan Africa, lacked access in 2022. While RISE electricity access scores climbed in many...

In 2024, Libya's economic performance reflects the persistent challenges of hydrocarbon dependency compared against nascent signs of broader recovery. The economy recorded a contraction of 0.6 percent for the year, driven primarily by a decline in oil GDP of 6 percent amid political and...

Indonesia's economy remains resilient amid worsening global conditions. GDP grew at 4.9 percent year-on-year (yoy) in Q1-2025, slightly lower than previous post-pandemic quarters. Domestic demand was impacted by reduced government consumption and lower investment. Budget efficiency measures led...

This survey examines the economic performance of economies of the Caribbean in 2022 and the first few months of 2023 and comprises five chapters. The first chapter gives an overview of global, regional and subregional economic performance in the Caribbean. The second provides an analysis of the...

This study involves tasking ChatGPT with classifying an "activity sentiment score" based on PMI news releases. It explores the predictive power of this score for euro area GDP nowcasting. We find that the PMI text scores enhance GDP nowcasts beyond what is embedded in ECB/Eurosystem Staff...

This paper examines the inflationary episode of 1603 in Spain through the lens of Austrian Economic Theory. The study focuses on the effects of monetary expansion caused by the influx of precious metals from the Americas and its impact on real wages and raw material prices. Through the analysis...

The notion of compensation for systematic risk is well ingrained in finance and constitutes the basis for numerous empirical tests. The concept an increase in systematic risk is accompanied by an increase in the required risk premium has strong intuitive content: The more risk there is to be...

This study introduces a novel composite approach to nonlinear inflation dynamics in identifying historical inflation patterns and forecasting future regime shifts. Assuming inflation's responsiveness to its determinants varies across inflation regimes and that inflation shock magnitude shapes...

Increasing geopolitical tensions and trade fragmentation are challenging the resilience of global value chains, by undermining the collaborative networks on which they depend. As countries impose trade restrictions or become less reliable partners, companies may reconfigure their supply chains,...