Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has long been used as a proxy for human progress, despite growing recognition of its limitations. Recently, numerous "beyond GDP" initiatives have emerged, promoting multidimensional dashboards to assess quality of life. However, these often lack a clear headline...

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has long been used as a proxy for human progress, despite growing recognition of its limitations. Recently, numerous "beyond GDP" initiatives have emerged, promoting multidimensional dashboards to assess quality of life. However, these often lack a clear headline...

Comparison of economies is essential for public policymaking but considerably hindered by the fact that statistics expressed in local currencies are not directly comparable. Market exchange rates give a distorted view, as they do not reflect the differences in price levels between countries.To...

Financial Conditions Indices (FCIs) are a widely used tool for assessing the broader monetary policy stance beyond the central bank's direct control. This paper presents a novel vector autoregressive (VAR) model that includes key macroeconomic variables and maps financial variables into a single...

The growing demand for transparency in sustainability reporting has compelled enterprises to look far beyond the boundaries of classical financial ratios when assessing their own performance. Environmental, social, and governance (ESG) indicators have dominated recent academic debate-primarily...

Inflation dynamics reflect forces operating at different cycles, from short-lived shocks to longterm structural trends. We introduce the sum-of-the-cycles (SOC) method, which exploits this multifrequency structure of inflation for forecasting. SOC decomposes inflation into cyclical components,...

This paper analyses the macroeconomic differences between the Nordic countries (Sweden, Denmark, Norway, and Finland) and the Anglo-Saxon countries (USA, UK, Canada, and Australia), focusing on the evolution of GDP, the policy rate, and inflation. Furthermore, financial market performance was...

The volatility of exchange rates is considered to be an important measure of a country's economic vulnerability and has a direct or indirect causal relationship with a large number of macroeconomic variables. The aim of this study is to analyze the macroeconomic variables in the economic...

Purpose This study aims to elucidate the dynamics of monetary and fiscal policy interactions in Brazil, focusing on the impacts of positive shocks in government consumption and interest rates. By comparing rational and behavioral agent responses, it clarifies how these frameworks influence gross...

Der Produktionsindex für die Gesamtwirtschaft ist ein neuer zusammengesetzter Konjunkturindikator. Er kombiniert vier Konjunkturindizes, die den größten Teil der Gewerblichen Wirtschaft abdecken: die Produktionsindizes für die Industrie, das Baugewerbe, den Dienstleistungssektor sowie den...

This study conducts a comprehensive analysis of the effects of changes in financial conditions on the economy of Türkiye, for which financial conditions indices were constructed. To examine possible changes in the relationship between financial conditions and the real economy due to the unique...

This paper focuses on identifying useful indicators for nowcasting GDP in Sweden. We analyze 35 monthly indicators spanning the period from 1993 to 2023. Additionally, we evaluate the group-wise performance of these indicators. The analysis is conducted using mixed-data sampling (MIDAS) and...

Forecasting stock markets is challenging due to the influence of various internal and external factors compounded by the effects of globalization. This study introduces a data-driven approach to forecast S&P 500 returns by incorporating macroeconomic indicators including gold and oil prices, the...

Timely updates of business cycle fluctuations-commonly represented by movements in the output gap-help policymakers make informed decisions on the appropriate course of action. Unfortunately, business cycle assessments often suffer from lags in actual gross domestic product data releases. This...

Das Statistische Bundesamt erforscht seit 2020 Passantenfrequenzdaten für die amtliche Statistik. Ziel ist unter anderem, aus den hochfrequenten Zeitreihen einen Konjunkturfrühindikator zu entwickeln, der die wirtschaftliche Situation im lokalen Einzelhandel und im Gastgewerbe am aktuellen...

The study analyses the impact of innovation on the economy in the EU and related countries (Norway and Switzerland), highlighting the large differences between these countries. An integrated measurement framework is proposed to assess the long-term impact of firm-based innovations on GDP...

This paper proposes a new sustainable development index incorporating informality measures for 36 European countries from 2010 to 2022. This index is estimated via a combination of national accounting, macroestimates of informality, and survey data through partial least squares (PLS) regression,...

The work scrutinises the predictive prowess of ensemble machine learning models, namely Random Forest, Gradient Boosting, and XGBoost, in the domain of stock prediction by training models at two different stages. In stage 1, we restrict our evaluation to 18 technical indicators alongside holding...

This study has two objectives: to identify sector-specific sustainability indicators from the literature and industry and to evaluate their importance through expert input.The analysis was conducted using the Fermatean fuzzy entropy and WASPAS method.The study found that, according to experts,...

Macroeconomic data releases are very important benchmarks of the economy. Therefore, the vast majority of financial market analysts and traders closely monitor both the projected estimates and, the intuitively more impactful actual values. In this research, we focus on the uncertainty associated...

Increasing geopolitical tensions and trade fragmentation are challenging the resilience of global value chains, by undermining the collaborative networks on which they depend. As countries impose trade restrictions or become less reliable partners, companies may reconfigure their supply chains,...

This paper describes steps to compile a high-frequency indicator of growth to be used for timely monitoring of real sector activity in Liechtenstein. Since the indicator is compiled with methods consistent with those used for national accounts, its development may also serve as an interim step...

In addition to the well-known ifo Business Climate Index for Germany, the ifo Business Survey generates a wide range of further indicators based on monthly responses from around 9,000 companies across all major sectors. These indicators capture current business conditions, expectations,...

This study introduces a novel composite approach to nonlinear inflation dynamics in identifying historical inflation patterns and forecasting future regime shifts. Assuming inflation's responsiveness to its determinants varies across inflation regimes and that inflation shock magnitude shapes...

Increasing geopolitical tensions and trade fragmentation are challenging the resilience of global value chains, by undermining the collaborative networks on which they depend. As countries impose trade restrictions or become less reliable partners, companies may reconfigure their supply chains,...

The notion of compensation for systematic risk is well ingrained in finance and constitutes the basis for numerous empirical tests. The concept an increase in systematic risk is accompanied by an increase in the required risk premium has strong intuitive content: The more risk there is to be...

Since the publication of the previous (2022) RISE edition, progress toward universal electrification reversed course for the first time in 20 years. About 685 million people, most of them living in Sub-Saharan Africa, lacked access in 2022. While RISE electricity access scores climbed in many...

In 2024, Libya's economic performance reflects the persistent challenges of hydrocarbon dependency compared against nascent signs of broader recovery. The economy recorded a contraction of 0.6 percent for the year, driven primarily by a decline in oil GDP of 6 percent amid political and...

Indonesia's economy remains resilient amid worsening global conditions. GDP grew at 4.9 percent year-on-year (yoy) in Q1-2025, slightly lower than previous post-pandemic quarters. Domestic demand was impacted by reduced government consumption and lower investment. Budget efficiency measures led...

This study involves tasking ChatGPT with classifying an "activity sentiment score" based on PMI news releases. It explores the predictive power of this score for euro area GDP nowcasting. We find that the PMI text scores enhance GDP nowcasts beyond what is embedded in ECB/Eurosystem Staff...