We provide a selective overview of the literature on the linkages between interstate conflict and international trade, paying special attention to how trade openness (i) affects arming incentives, (ii) the channels through which its effects travel, and (iii) its consequences for the emergence of...

We consider a dynamic setting where two countries with competing claims to a resource/asset first arm and then choose whether to resolve their dispute through war or peacefully through settlement. War precludes international trade and can be destructive, but also locks gains and eliminates...

This paper investigates the expansion of EU military activities, involving the European Commission, other EU-related institutions and Member States. Expenditure on EU military programmes - defence-related R&D, arms production, joint procurement, military mobility, and the supply of lethal...

This report updates and expands the data-driven work of our initial study from September 2024, which concluded that Europe would only be fit for war in several decades. We show that the situation today is even more concerning if Europe aims to be fit for war by 2030. First, Russia continues to...

In 2024, total defence expenditure by the 27 EU Member States reached €343 billion, marking a 19% increase from 2023, bringing defence expenditure to 1.9% of GDP. Estimated data suggests that Member States may reach beyond the 2% NATO guideline in 2025, to €392 billion (current prices,...

In 2024, total defence expenditure by the 27 EU Member States reached €343 billion, marking a 19% increase from 2023, bringing defence expenditure to 1.9% of GDP. Estimated data suggests that Member States may reach beyond the 2% NATO guideline in 2025, to €392 billion (current prices,...

The Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 led to unprecedented sanctions aimed at denying Russia access to critical technologies essential for sustaining its war efforts. This paper examines whether trade sanctions targeting military goods were undermined by evasion, specifically through...

Fatal school shootings often spark support for stricter gun laws, threatening the gun lobby’s influence and agenda. To prevent political fallout, do pro-gun Political Action Committees increase contributions after fatal school shootings? Leveraging a novel dataset of pro-gun PAC contributions...

In low resource settings where it is challenging to obtain accurate weight-for-height Z-scores (e.g., equipment to accurately measure height and weight is not readily available, minimally trained community health workers, etc.), the Mid-Upper Arm Circumference (MUAC) is a simple tool used to...

We study how Europe could replace US support for Ukraine both (i) financially, in terms of the fiscal effort required, and (ii) militarily, in terms of weapon production. Financial effort: The financial challenge of replacing US aid is limited. Currently, European governments are spending just...

Mass shootings in the U.S. have been at the center of the public crisis debate for a long time. Combining information on mass shootings with background check reports from the Federal Bureau of Investigation, this study applies mass shootings as exogenous shocks and reveals that the demand for...

The member states of the European Union are once again arguing about money. More specifically, they are arguing about how much they want to spend on defence, where this money should come from and whether they should spend it jointly. That Europe needs to defend itself better is not in dispute in...

2023 witnessed a sharp increase in total defence expenditure, with a total amount of €279 billion being spent by European Union Member States (MS), which corresponds to 1.6% of MS Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The development and procurement of new weapons systems was the primary factor...

Illicit arms trafficking in Ukraine has been a significant issue since the Cold War, with leftover Soviet stockpiles providing lucrative smuggling routes. With over US$100 billion in aid being provided by the West, a sizeable portion being in the form of small arms and guided infantry weapons...

2023 witnessed a sharp increase in total defence expenditure, with a total amount of €279 billion being spent by European Union Member States (MS), which corresponds to 1.6% of MS Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The development and procurement of new weapons systems was the primary factor...

There are still a number of UN arms embargoes in place to prevent the flow of arms and military material into conflict zones. Although the UN Security Council is not generally deadlocked on this issue, it has only taken relevant decisions to re-design the embargoes in a few cases over the last...

This paper analyses the impact of armed groups and their taxation practices on the municipal fishing sector of the Zamboanga Peninsula in Mindanao, Philippines. Leveraging novel qualitative and quantitative data, we find clear evidence of armed group presence, social implantation, and taxation...

War is back in Europe and as it becomes long-lasting, the question of armament gains central importance. This report finds that Russian military industrial capacities have been rising strongly in the last two years, well beyond the levels of Russian material losses in Ukraine. Meanwhile, the...

Over the past decade, Turkey’s defence industry has undergone rapid development and its products have repeatedly proved their military capability. The Bayraktar-TB2 drone - a product of the Turkish manufacturer Baykar - is exported to numerous countries. In Ukraine, it is being used...

Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine has fundamentally changed the terms of Russia-China economic relations. Economic cooperation with China has become vital for the Russian economy. Trade turnover between Russia and China has increased significantly since February 2022. However, Chinese...

n recent decades, the global debate on gun control has been prominent, with many countries adopting more restrictive policies. Brazil followed this trend by implementing stringent measures in 2003; however, the presidency of Jair Bolsonaro in 2019 introduced normative changes aimed at facilitating...

At least since Russia deployed North Korean artillery and ballistic missiles against Ukraine, it is obvious that Pyongyang fuels conflicts far beyond North-East Asia. Yet, the indirect threats that North Korea poses to Europe's security and stability have developed a new quality: Pyongyang is...

After many years of underinvestment in defence, EU Member States are rearming, but much criticism has been levelled at the slow pace. Many argue that more European cooperation on defence acquisition and arms procurement would not only make buying arms faster and cheaper, but also strengthen the...

After many years of underinvestment in defence, EU Member States are rearming, but much criticism has been levelled at the slow pace. Many argue that more European cooperation on defence acquisition and arms procurement would not only make buying arms faster and cheaper, but also strengthen the...

In the span of ten days, the United States experienced two of the deadliest mass shootings in American history. The first mass shooting at a grocery store in Buffalo, New York killed ten people and injured three more—mostly elderly shoppers. The second mass shooting at an elementary school in...

Toy guns are subject to federal product safety regulation. Real guns are not. If a defect in an air rifle causes it to discharge without warning, the manufacturer would be required to promptly notify a safety regulator (the Consumer Product Safety Commission); to recall the air rifle; and to...

Researchers specializing in gun policy often measure the effect of a given policy using a standard difference-in-difference approach. We highlight a potential concern with this method which complicates the identification of a causal relationship: gun access potentially changes with legislation....

This paper aims to examine the Roles of Small Arms and Light Weapons (SALW) as a Catalyst of Terrorism in Africa. It is instructive to state that uncontrolled availability of SALWs in Africa has influenced many of the armed conflicts and acts of terrorism on the continent. This has continued to...

Gun violence is a major problem in the United States, and extensive prior work has shown that higher temperatures increase violent behavior. In this paper, we consider whether restricting the concealed carry of firearms mitigates or exacerbates the effect of temperature on violence. We use two...

Gun violence is a major problem in the United States, and extensive prior work has shown that higher temperatures increase violent behavior. In this paper, we consider whether restricting the concealed carry of firearms mitigates or exacerbates the effect of temperature on violence. We use two...

This paper studies the effect of police-involved shootings on gun violence and civilian cooperation with police, as proxied by crime reports made via 911 calls. To distinguish between crime reporting and crime incidence, we use administrative data on 911 calls and ShotSpotter data from...

Against the background of the Russian missile strikes against Ukraine, Germany has launched the European Sky Shield Initiative (ESSI) to strengthen Europe's air and missile defence. In the short term, it seems there is little likelihood of a Russian missile attack against NATO as Moscow probably...

Overconfidence leads to risky behavior, including when people are around guns. Does overconfidence also shape attitudes about gun ownership and use? We evaluate this possibility by conducting nationally representative surveys in six countries in the Americas, including the United States. Results...