This paper examines how firm perceptions influence the transmission of fiscal policy. Using natural language processing on corporate earnings calls from 51 countries over two decades, we construct Fiscal Perceptions Indicators (FPI) that capture the incidence, risk framing, and tone of fiscal...

Emerging market economies (EMEs) regularly tap domestic and international capital markets through scheduled sovereign bond auctions. In this paper, we leverage a novel dataset covering over 75,000 sovereign issuance events and 20,000 securities from 20 EMEs between the early 2000s and 2023 to...

This paper investigates how monetary and ESG-related risks-especially those stemming from asymmetric policy transmission across Eurozone economies-have evolved over time, with a focus on the post-COVID-19 era. Using a mixed-method bibliometric analysis of 216 peer-reviewed articles (1996-2025),...

A review is presented of the macroeconomics of climate change and policy. The review starts with a tractable workhorse model of the macroeconomics of climate and carbon pricing. It then discusses extensions to multiple countries. A discussion of the effects of macroeconomic and climate...

Why do countries set sovereign debt ceilings if they keep raising them? This paper shows that debt ceilings can serve as intermediate commitment devices that reduce expected dilution, thereby lowering spreads-and their volatility-even without reducing total borrowing. We propose a new sovereign...

This paper evaluates a largely overlooked thesis developed by Juan Bautista Alberdi of Argentina's 19th-century economic development using econometric time-series methods. Annual series of GDP per capita, export performance, and monthly London prices of bonds issued by the Republic of Argentina...

Climate change is reshaping sovereign risk and macroeconomic stability by amplifying fiscal and external fragilities. This paper develops a unified framework to assess how climate vulnerability and resilience jointly influence fiscal–external solvency. We construct a market-based...

This study quantifies Lithuania's Equity Risk Premium (ERP) by integrating Damodaran's country-risk premium (CRP) framework with a multiple regression on key market drivers. By using quarterly data from Q1 2015 to Q4 2024, the CRP model yields an implied cost of equity of 9.84%, corresponding to...

Development finance institutions (DFIs) play a central role in financing infrastructure for sustainable development, yet their effects on project‑level risk allocation and private capital mobilization remain imperfectly understood. This paper examines how different DFIs and financial...

This paper analyses the long-memory properties of sovereign bond spreads in 17 Latin American countries as well as two regional aggregates using daily EMBI (Emerging Markets Bond Index) data from April 2013 to January 2026 (3,163 observations per series). Parametric methods show that all 19...

Hidden public liabilities can reprice sovereign risk abruptly upon revelation. We study optimal default following such a revelation in a quantitative sovereign default model and apply the framework to Senegal's 2024 debt audit, which revised government debt upward by 50 percentage points of GDP....

Theory suggests that corporate and sovereign bonds are fundamentally different, also because sovereign debt has no bankruptcy mechanism and is hard to enforce. We show empirically that the two assets are more similar than you think, at least when it comes to high-yield bonds over the past 20...

Theory suggests that corporate and sovereign bonds are fundamentally different, also because sovereign debt has no bankruptcy mechanism and is hard to enforce. We show empirically that the two assets are more similar than you think, at least when it comes to high-yield bonds over the past 20...

This study examines the relationship between sovereign spreads and banks in terms of risk transmission, using the seven largest Italian banks as a sample over the period from 2003 to 2023. Our objective is to quantify and compare volatility spillovers, and to investigate whether bank-specific...

In recent years, because of the 2008 financial crisis and the evolution of the sovereign debt markets, there has been a significant increase in interest in understanding the factors that determine the risk premium, becoming a key indicator of the financial stability of countries, and a measure...

How do banks respond to geopolitical risk, and is this response distinct from other macroeconomic risks? Using U.S. supervisory data and new geopolitical risk indices, we show that banks reduce cross-border lending to countries with elevated geopolitical risk but continue lending to those...

How do banks respond to geopolitical risk, and is this response distinct from other macroeconomic risks? Using U.S. supervisory data and new geopolitical risk indices, we show that banks reduce cross-border lending to countries with elevated geopolitical risk but continue lending to those...