Search Results - subject_exact:"Länderrisikoanalyse"

Long memory in Latin American sovereign risk : daily evidence on the EMBI

Asturias Schaub, Luis Rodrigo; Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; … - 2026

This paper analyses the long-memory properties of sovereign bond spreads in 17 Latin American countries as well as two regional aggregates using daily EMBI (Emerging Markets Bond Index) data from April 2013 to January 2026 (3,163 observations per series). Parametric methods show that all 19...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015654662

Fiscal assessments through the lens of firms : corporate perceptions and the transmission of fiscal policy

Hirs-Garzon, Jorge; Andrián, Leandro; Valencia, Oscar M. - 2026

This paper examines how firm perceptions influence the transmission of fiscal policy. Using natural language processing on corporate earnings calls from 51 countries over two decades, we construct Fiscal Perceptions Indicators (FPI) that capture the incidence, risk framing, and tone of fiscal...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015608805

Heterogeneous impact of geopolitical risk on foreign direct investment

Matsuura, Toshiyuki; Siregar, Rizki Nauli; Narjoko, … - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015608932

Kicking away the green ladder : the asymmetric sovereign risk from nature degradation

Wollenweber, Alexander; Wang, Dieter; Ranger, Nicola - 2026 - Version: March 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015609600

Determinants of sovereign bond issuance in emerging markets

Wong, Ka Lok; Manger, Mark S.; Panizza, Ugo - 2026

Emerging market economies (EMEs) regularly tap domestic and international capital markets through scheduled sovereign bond auctions. In this paper, we leverage a novel dataset covering over 75,000 sovereign issuance events and 20,000 securities from 20 EMEs between the early 2000s and 2023 to...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015611520

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Determinants of sovereign bond issuance in emerging markets

Wong, Ka Lok; Manger, Mark S.; Panizza, Ugo - 2026

Book / Working Paper

Monetary asymmetry and ESG governance in the Eurozone : mapping evolving risk narratives through bibliometric analysis

Garefalakis, Alexandros; Angelaki, Erasmia; … - 2026

This paper investigates how monetary and ESG-related risks-especially those stemming from asymmetric policy transmission across Eurozone economies-have evolved over time, with a focus on the post-COVID-19 era. Using a mixed-method bibliometric analysis of 216 peer-reviewed articles (1996-2025),...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015611568

Climate resilience and the adaptation trap : a macroeconomic framework for joint fiscal-external sustainability

Afonso, António; Alves, José; Jalles, João Tovar; … - 2026

Climate change is reshaping sovereign risk and macroeconomic stability by amplifying fiscal and external fragilities. This paper develops a unified framework to assess how climate vulnerability and resilience jointly influence fiscal–external solvency. We construct a market-based...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015586922

Climate change, climate policy, and the macroeconomy

Ploeg, Frederick van der; Rezai, Armon - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015675615

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Climate change, climate policy, and the macroeconomy

Ploeg, Frederick van der; Rezai, Armon - 2026

Book / Working Paper

Climate change, climate policy, and the macroeconomy

Ploeg, Frederick van der; Rezai, Armon - 2026

Book / Working Paper

Secured legitimacy : Deutsch-Asiatische bank's strategy for mitigating political risks in Chinese business (1945-1957)

Liu, Yi - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015620766

Bonds or Credits? : risk management and sovereign lending in the Euromarkets : evidence from Mexico, 1973-1982

Alverez, Sebastian; Molteni, Marco - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015640074

Credit rating agencies' views on China's Belt and Road Initiative

Ioannou, Stefanos; Keenan, Liam; Wójcik, Dariusz - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015641318

Sovereign risk with endogenous debt limits

Arce, Fernando; Villa, Alessandro T. - 2026

Why do countries set sovereign debt ceilings if they keep raising them? This paper shows that debt ceilings can serve as intermediate commitment devices that reduce expected dilution, thereby lowering spreads-and their volatility-even without reducing total borrowing. We propose a new sovereign...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015643954

Institutions and economic growth in 19th century Argentina : testing Alberdi's thesis

Ocampo, Emilio - 2026

This paper evaluates a largely overlooked thesis developed by Juan Bautista Alberdi of Argentina's 19th-century economic development using econometric time-series methods. Annual series of GDP per capita, export performance, and monthly London prices of bonds issued by the Republic of Argentina...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015644006

Are sovereign debts sustainable under energy transition?

Mammetti, Veronica; Zenios, Stauros Andrea; Morelli, Giacomo - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015644724

The contagion effect of natural disasters in the Sovereign CDS market : which causes?

Di Tommaso, Caterina; Foglia, Matteo; Pacelli, Vincenzo - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015647428

Banking regulation with risk of sovereign default

D'Erasmo, Pablo N.; Livshits, Igor; Schoors, Koen - 2024

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015573480

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Banking regulation with risk of sovereign default

D'Erasmo, Pablo N.; Livshits, Igor; Schoors, Koen - 2026

Book / Working Paper

Banking regulation with risk of sovereign default

D'Erasmo, Pablo N.; Livshits, Igor; Schoors, Koen - 2019

Book / Working Paper

Banking regulation with risk of sovereign default

D'Erasmo, Pablo N.; Livshits, Igor; Schoors, Koen - 2019

Book / Working Paper

Optimal default in a small open economy : Senegal's hidden debt crisis

Coulibaly, Louphou; Ndiaye, Abdoulaye - 2026

Hidden public liabilities can reprice sovereign risk abruptly upon revelation. We study optimal default following such a revelation in a quantitative sovereign default model and apply the framework to Senegal's 2024 debt audit, which revised government debt upward by 50 percentage points of GDP....

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015651315

Carbon risk and corporate creditworthiness : evidence from a major emerging economy

Borsuk, Marcin; Shrimali, Gireesh - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015651481

The adaptation imperative : climate change and sovereign credit risk

Burke, Matt; Mohaddes, Kamiar; Raissi, Mehdi - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015651533

De-risking investment for sustainable development : the role of development banks and emerging donors

Santos-Paulino, Amelia U.; Sharma, Prachi; Trentini, Claudia - 2026

Development finance institutions (DFIs) play a central role in financing infrastructure for sustainable development, yet their effects on project‑level risk allocation and private capital mobilization remain imperfectly understood. This paper examines how different DFIs and financial...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015651831

Sovereign green bonds : risk-mitigating sustainability instruments in emerging markets

Nevatia, Vedanshi - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015632226

Impact of climate vulnerability on fiscal risk : do religious tensions and financial development matter?

Saadaoui, Jamel; Beirne, John; Park, Donghyun; Uddin, … - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015632704

Equity risk premium in Lithuania's frontier market : integrating country risk and market drivers

Bonelli, Marco I. - 2026

This study quantifies Lithuania's Equity Risk Premium (ERP) by integrating Damodaran's country-risk premium (CRP) framework with a multiple regression on key market drivers. By using quarterly data from Q1 2015 to Q4 2024, the CRP model yields an implied cost of equity of 9.84%, corresponding to...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015636778

Clientelism, institutions and sovereign default

Azzimonti, Marina; Mitra, Nirvana - 2026 - This version: March 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015636809

Expansionary fiscal rules under sovereign risk

Esquivel, Carlos; Samano, Agustin - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015574597

Global risk aversion and the term premium gap in emerging market economies

Flaccadoro, Marco; Villa, Stefania - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015561050

Vanadium : Rohstoffrisikobewertung

Damm, Sophie - 2026 - Datenstand: November 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015650844

Mangan : Rohstoffrisikobewertung

Osbahr, Inga - 2026 - Datenstand: Oktober 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015650847

Navigating tail risks : the influence of geopolitical uncertainty on clean and carbon energy

Gabriel, Vítor Manuel de Sousa; Miralles-Quirós, … - 2026

This study examines the connection between geopolitical risk (GPR) and two categories of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) centered on energy. The aim is to assess how risks from wars, political conflicts, and terrorist activities influence the behavior of these financial assets. We analyze the...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015670729

The evolving nexus: sovereigns, banks and NBFIs$Stefan Avdjiev, Bryan Hardy and Maximilian Jager

Avdjiev, Stefan; Hardy, Bryan; Jager, Maximilian - 2026 - This version: July 14, 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015673746

Wars, threats, and the sovereign bond market

Federle, Jonathan-Julian; Greenwood, Robin; Meyer, Josefin - 2026

We study how wars and military threats affect financial markets. Leveraging more than 300,000 monthly price observations since 1822, we create an external currency bond index for more than 90 countries - the EXBI. Using the EXBI, we document large effects of wars on returns and borrowing costs....

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015670016

Geopolitical risk and emerging market sovereign risk premia

Gamboa-Estrada, Fredy; Romero, José Vicente - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015672867

Sovereign ratings and risk pricing, agency divergences in the European Union

Afonso, António; Alves, José; Gkonkas, Periklēs; … - 2026

Using annual EU-27 data for 1995-2024, we examine whether sovereign ratings mainly reflect common macro-fiscal fundamentals or whether agency-specific departures from that benchmark are also priced into sovereign funding conditions. Pooled ordered probits and a machine-learning diagnostic layer...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015675116

Debt service vs. debt stock in sovereign credit ratings : a systematic review and meta-regression analysis

Abdelmohsen, Mohamed; Abdelmohsen, Hadir; Ahmed, … - 2026

Sovereign credit ratings are central to a country's access to international capital markets, yet the relative informational content of debt service obligations versus aggregate debt stock for rating outcomes remains empirically unsettled. This systematic review synthesises econometric evidence...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015676330

Pooling catastrophic mortality risk in smallholder livestock systems : an ASEAN-5 sovereign risk pool and catastrophe bond

Kiatanantha Lounkaew - 2026

Single-country livestock-mortality insurance programs in smallholder economies face a structural problem: under regime-switching mortality, the capital needed to stay solvent in a bad year can approach annual premium revenue, so public budgets become the insurer of last resort. This paper...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016059158

Business as usual? : a replication of Andrews, Pritchett, and Woolcock (Building state capability: evidence, analysis, action, 2017)

Murphy, Ryan - 2026

In Building State Capability, Matt Andrews, Lant Pritchett, and Michael Woolcock argue that there has been little institutional development in recent decades ("The Big Stuck"). A subsequent blog post by Pritchett (2020) shores up its empirical foundations, with some emphasis on results derived...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016060915

Animal spirits or political risk? : separating confidence channels in an emerging economy

Odendaal, Hanjo - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016060661

Two decades of research on sustainability and sovereign ratings : trends, research puzzles and future directions

Arfa, Insaf; Khiari, Wided; Ballouk, Houssein; Ben … - 2026

The article provides a systematic and bibliometric review of the literature on the relationship between countries' ESG scores and their sovereign ratings. The study, which follows the PRISMA 2020 guidelines, employs a bibliometric methodology using a sample of 168 peer-reviewed articles sourced...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016061279

The role of rare earth and metallic mineral prices and sovereign inflation-linked bonds in AI-driven fintech industrial development amid the Russia-Ukraine conflict : a dynamic quantile analysis approach

Islam, Md. Monirul; Ahmed, Faroque; Al Mahmud, Abdulla; … - 2025

AI-driven fintech industries face critical vulnerabilities from volatile rare earth and metallic mineral prices, geopolitical instability, and inflationary pressures. Sovereign inflation-linked bonds serve as incentives for investors in technological industries, despite the risks associated with...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015654725

A further examination of sovereign domestic and external debt defaults

Ghulam, Yaseen - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015371717

Sovereign vs. corporate debt and default : more similar than you think

Gopinath, Gita; Meyer, Josefin; Reinhart, Carmen M.; … - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015574363

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Sovereign vs. corporate debt and default : more similar than you think

Gopinath, Gita; Meyer, Josefin; Reinhart, Carmen M.; … - 2025 - This draft: March 2025

Edition: This draft: March 2025

Book / Working Paper

Sovereign vs. corporate debt and default : more similar than you think

Gopinath, Gita; Meyer, Josefin; Reinhart, Carmen M.; … - 2025 - This draft: April 2025

Edition: This draft: April 2025

Book / Working Paper

Sovereign vs. corporate debt and default : more similar than you think

Gopinath, Gita; Meyer, Josefin; Reinhart, Carmen M.; … - 2025

Book / Working Paper

Sovereign vs. corporate debt and default : more similar than you think

Gopinath, Gita; Meyer, Josefin; Reinhart, Carmen M.; … - 2024 - This draft: March 2024

Edition: This draft: March 2024

Book / Working Paper

Spillovers between sovereign bonds and the banking sector : evidence from Italy

Cafiso, Gianluca; Rivolta, Giulia - 2025

This study examines the relationship between sovereign spreads and banks in terms of risk transmission, using the seven largest Italian banks as a sample over the period from 2003 to 2023. Our objective is to quantify and compare volatility spillovers, and to investigate whether bank-specific...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015372003

International extreme sovereign risk connectedness : network structure and roles

Huang, Wei-Qiang; Liu, Peipei; Zhu, Yao-Long - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015372004

Geopolitical risk and corporate behaviors : propagation of shocks through global operations

Huu Nhan Duong; Ishikawa, Jota; Nishide, Katsumasa; … - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015374036

Bilateral investment treaties and sovereign default risk : evidence for emerging markets

Eichler, Stefanie; Nauerth, Jannik A. - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015375531

Sovereign risk premium and macroeconomy : causal relationship

Botey-Fullat, Maria; Marín-Palacios, Cristina; … - 2025

In recent years, because of the 2008 financial crisis and the evolution of the sovereign debt markets, there has been a significant increase in interest in understanding the factors that determine the risk premium, becoming a key indicator of the financial stability of countries, and a measure...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015338584

Creditworthy: do climate change risks matter for sovereign credit ratings?

Cappiello, Lorenzo; Ferrucci, Gianluigi; Maddaloni, Angela - 2025

Do sovereign credit ratings take into account physical and transition climate risks? This paper empirically addresses this question using a panel dataset that includes a large sample of countries over two decades. The analysis reveals that higher temperature anomalies and more frequent natural...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015340193

From pledges to portfolios : integrating countries' climate commitments into sovereign bond investments

Alessandrini, Fabio; Jondeau, Eric; Vallée, Lou-Salomé - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015357871

Credit rating agencies, developing countries and bias : policy review

2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015193398

The credit channel of the sovereign spread : a Bayesian SVAR analysis

Cafiso, Gianluca; Missale, Alessandro; Rivolta, Giulia - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015195154