This chapter is about radical innovation and disruptive technological change. Discovering the nature and mechanisms of disruptive technological change can help to understand the long-run dynamics of innovation and map profound transformation in socio-economic systems. The chapter considers four...

This paper deals with the question of whether there is a relationship between Kondratieff cycles and changes in the global monetary system. We use the model of the well-known Kondratieff scientist Carlota Perez to examine this relationship. It has been observed that at the beginning of the...

Asset prices undergo long swings that revolve around benchmark levels. In currency markets, fluctuations involve real exchange rates that are highly persistent and that move in near-parallel fashion with nominal rates. The inability to explain these two regularities with one model has been...

Kondratiev long cycle is generally treated as a phenomenon of a modern world economy. However, the existence of major cycles before the Industrial Revolution does not contradict the theoretical views of Kondratiev, the founder of the long-waves theory. We have discovered Kondratiev's documents,...

Evoking Chris Freeman and following from the last book he co-authored, this WP asks why has the Phase B of the fourth long wave been so long, since the major turning point of the 1970s. As Chris's answer was the mismatch between the new techno-economic paradigm, available for decades, and the...

Vorwort – Von unerwarteten Begegnungen und ihren Folgen -- Einleitung -- Puzzlesteine einer Systemkrise -- Die systemische Perspektive -- Wir wagen einen Blick in die Zukunft -- Der Schritt in die Umsetzung -- Wohin geht die Reise?.

ekz-Annotation: Die Autoren sehen voraus, dass sich Wirtschaft, Politik, Gesellschaft und das individuelle Leben jede*r Einzelnen nach der Pandemie für immer drastisch verändern werden. Sie ermutigen dazu, nun die Gunst der Stunde zu nutzen und zu investieren, um sehr viel Geld zu verdienen....

Purpose There exist long-term fluctuations in the process of capital accumulation. The economic long wave is an essential part of research into non-mainstream western economics. After the Second World War, the capitalist world experienced the fourth long wave of expansion and then entered into a...

The present paper is an empirical exercise that contributes to the debate on whether long-lasting cyclical economic development can be viewed as a deterministic phenomenon or a stochastic process. First, we search for longer lasting, periodically reappearing cycles of GDP per capita in four...

This article is devoted to a reconstruction of Soviet discussions on long cycles based on an analysis of a wide range of unknown and little-known historiographical sources and archival materials. The role of discussions in the formation of assessments and ideas about long cycles is shown. In...

The emergency of a new tecno-economic paradigm, the existence of regularities in History, is a construction of the human intellect that tries to find explanation and sense when happening of the Humanity, treating to escape to the myth of Sísifo. Consensus exists that this is a time of global...

This study investigates the interaction of the use of modern contraceptives, fertility, education, and long‐run growth. It develops an economic model that takes into account that sexual intercourse is utility enhancing and that birth control by modern contraceptives is more efficient but more...

A central challenge in asset pricing is the weak connection between stock returns and observable economic fundamentals. We provide evidence that this connection is stronger than previously thought. We use a modified version of the Bry-Boschan algorithm to identify long-run swings in the stock...

Oft zitiert, kaum konkretisiert IBM die ökologisch-soziale Marktwirtschaft. Dies meint die Umfinanzierung der Arbeitskosten durch Ökosteuern. Konsequenterweise hiesse das: ein bedingungsloses Grundeinkommen, das aber aus der Besteuerung von Energieträgern und (Investiv-)Kapital finanziert...

Der Begriff IT, "Information Technology" steht für den 5. und jüngsten Kondratjeff-Zyklus und damit für einen zukünftigen Boom. Gleichzeitig lässt dieser Begriff vermutlich nicht wenige Computernutzer zunächst erschreckt an die PC-Fehlermeldung denken "Bitte wenden Sie sich an Ihren...

We discuss business cycles in ancient China. Data on Ancient China business cycles are sparse and incomplete and so our discussion is qualitative rather than quantitative. Essentially, ancient debates focused on two types of cycles: long run political or dynastic cycles of many decades, and...

Asset prices tend to undergo wide swings around long-run equilibrium values, which can have detrimental effects on the real economy. To get a better understanding of how the financial sector and the real economy interact, this paper models the long swings in the Swiss franc-US dollar foreign...

A central challenge in asset pricing is the weak connection between stock returns and observable economic fundamentals. We provide evidence that this connection is stronger than previously thought. We use a modified version of the Bry-Boschan algorithm to identify long-run swings in the stock...

Long-term cycles in world economic development are analyzed through the view on Russia's economy in the XIX century. Several economic indicators and industries are observed. It is found that Russia joined long economic fluctuations gradually. The first signs of this involvement are noticeable...

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the pattern and behavior of Economic Long Waves over time, using the long-wave chronologies of two driving economies, the USA and the UK. The statistical evidence seems in general to support the hypothesis that Long Waves are not symmetric and their...

The purpose of this paper is to conjecture the possible technological determinants underpinning future economic long waves. The foresight is based on prominent forecasting studies of scholars and a leading British company. This research assumes that converging nano-bio-info-cogno technologies...

We discuss business cycles in ancient China. Data on Ancient China business cycles are sparse and incomplete and so our discussion is qualitative rather than quantitative. Essentially, ancient debates focused on two types of cycles: long run political or dynastic cycles of many decades, and...

A central challenge in asset pricing is the weak connection between stock returns and observable economic fundamentals. We provide evidence that this connection is stronger than previously thought. We use a modified version of the Bry-Boschan algorithm to identify long-run swings in the stock...

This study investigates the interaction of the use of modern contraceptives, fertility, education, and long-run growth. It develops an economic model that takes into account that sexual intercourse is utility enhancing and that birth control by modern contraceptives is more efficient and more...