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Year of publication
Subject
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Leading indicator 7,840 Frühindikator 7,818 Prognoseverfahren 3,010 Forecasting model 3,004 Konjunktur 2,048 Business cycle 2,011 Deutschland 1,794 Germany 1,792 Wirtschaftsprognose 1,585 Economic forecast 1,574 Theorie 1,414 Theory 1,412 Wirtschaftsindikator 1,232 Economic indicator 1,222 USA 858 United States 849 Schätzung 800 Estimation 797 Welt 764 World 763 Prognose 747 EU-Staaten 693 EU countries 689 Forecast 678 Zeitreihenanalyse 628 Time series analysis 624 Macroeconomic performance 403 Wirtschaftslage 403 Eurozone 353 International business cycle 351 Internationale Konjunktur 351 Wirtschaftswachstum 351 Euro area 348 Economic growth 341 National income 341 Nationaleinkommen 341 Bruttoinlandsprodukt 317 Faktorenanalyse 313 Factor analysis 312 Gross domestic product 308
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Online availability
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Free 2,652 Undetermined 996 CC license 64 Digitizable 2
Type of publication
All
Article 3,985 Book / Working Paper 3,661 Journal 255
Subcategories
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Article in journal 3,608 Working paper 1,491 Book section 322 Statistics 162 Government document 143 Proceedings 142 Report 77 Textbook 18 Handbook 16 Review 8 Guidebook 6 Case study 5 Literature review 5 Biography 2 Glossary included 2
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Language
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English 5,392 German 2,086 French 125 Russian 48 Italian 40 Dutch 38 Polish 37 Spanish 34 Undetermined 28 Czech 20 Hungarian 18 Slovak 10 Slovenian 9 Swedish 8 Norwegian 6 Romanian 5 Finnish 4 Croatian 4 Lithuanian 3 Bulgarian 2 Estonian 2 Portuguese 2 Chinese 2 Kazakh 1 Macedonian 1 Serbian 1 Ukrainian 1
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Author
All
Scheide, Joachim 132 Nierhaus, Wolfgang 102 Abberger, Klaus 99 Gern, Klaus-Jürgen 88 Marcellino, Massimiliano 82 Wohlrabe, Klaus 67 Nerb, Gernot 64 Loose, Brigitte 59 Meier, Carsten-Patrick 58 Lahiri, Kajal 57 Gürtler, Joachim 55 Lang, Cornelia 53 Marterbauer, Markus 50 Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens 49 Döpke, Jörg 49 Jannsen, Nils 49 Dovern, Jonas 48 Gluch, Erich 47 Kholodilin, Konstantin 46 Kooths, Stefan 44 Schumacher, Christian 43 Zarnowitz, Victor 43 Groll, Dominik 40 Siliverstovs, Boriss 40 Carstensen, Kai 39 Kamps, Christophe 39 Boss, Alfred 37 Städtler, Arno 36 Stangl, Anna 35 Walterskirchen, Ewald 35 Fritsche, Ulrich 33 Lehmann, Robert 32 Ludwig, Udo 32 Ferrara, Laurent 31 Michelsen, Claus 31 Engerer, Hella 30 Baldi, Guido 29 Benner, Joachim 29 Diebold, Francis X. 29 Gupta, Rangan 29
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Institution
All
Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel / Institut für Weltwirtschaft 99 European Commission / Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs 62 National Bureau of Economic Research 55 Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose 46 Europäische Kommission / Generaldirektion Wirtschaft und Finanzen 39 Arbeitsgemeinschaft Deutscher Wirtschaftswissenschaftlicher Forschungsinstitute 35 Ifo-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung 35 Association of European Conjuncture Institutes 32 OECD 31 Österreichisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung 29 Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle 28 Arbeitskreis Konjunktur des IWH 23 Konjunkturforschungsstelle <Zürich> 23 Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung 23 Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der Gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung 23 Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung 22 Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung / Arbeitskreis Konjunktur 20 Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys 19 University of Michigan / Department of Economics 18 Ifo Institut 16 Hamburgisches Welt-Wirtschafts-Archiv 15 Institut für Makroökonomie und Konjunkturforschung 14 Deutscher Industrie- und Handelskammertag 11 Institut für Höhere Studien 11 Niederlande / Centraal Planbureau 11 National Institute of Economic and Social Research 10 PriceWaterhouseCoopers <London> 10 UBS AG 10 Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle 9 Observatoire Français des Conjonctures Economiques 9 Credit Suisse 8 Institut der Deutschen Wirtschaft <Köln> / Arbeitsgruppe Konjunktur 8 Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung 8 Europäische Kommission 7 Institut der Deutschen Wirtschaft <Köln> / Forschungsgruppe Konjunktur 7 Institut national de la statistique et des études économiques <Frankreich> 7 Urad za Makroekonomske Analize in Razvoj <Ljubljana> 7 Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftliches Institut / Projektgruppe Prognose 7 Compagnie française d'assurance pour le commerce extérieur 6 Deutsche Bank <Frankfurt am Main> / Research 6
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Published in...
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Ifo-Schnelldienst 381 International journal of forecasting 196 Wirtschaft im Wandel 182 Monatsberichte / WIFO, Österreichisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung 167 Wirtschaftsdienst : Zeitschrift für Wirtschaftspolitik 162 DIW-Wochenbericht : Wirtschaft, Politik, Wissenschaft 96 Kieler Diskussionsbeiträge 95 Journal of forecasting 80 CESifo working papers 66 Ifo Dresden berichtet 60 NBER working paper series 52 Weltkonjunktur und deutsche Konjunktur : im ... 50 European economy 47 Working paper series / European Central Bank 46 Die Weltwirtschaft : Vierteljahresschrift des Instituts für Weltwirtschaft an der Universität Kiel 44 DIW weekly report : economy, politics, science : a policy bulletin from the German Institute for Economic Research 43 NBER Working Paper 42 Economics letters 41 Empirical economics : a journal of the Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna, Austria 41 Working paper / National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. 40 Applied economics letters 39 Working paper 39 Applied economics 38 Economic review 37 Economic modelling 36 Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik 35 Journal of business & economic statistics : JBES ; a publication of the American Statistical Association 35 Business economics : the journal of the National Association for Business Economists 34 Journal of business cycle measurement and analysis : a joint publication of OECD and CIRET 34 KOF working papers 34 Journal of macroeconomics 31 Studies on Russian economic development : the official journal of the Institute of Economic Forecasting, Russian Academy of Sciences 31 Discussion paper / Centre for Economic Policy Research 30 IFO-Studien : Zeitschrift für empirische Wirtschaftsforschung 30 Kiel Institute economic outlook 30 Report / IMK, Institut für Makroökonomie und Konjunkturforschung 30 ECB Working Paper 29 Journal of applied econometrics 29 Discussion paper 27 IMF working papers 27
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Source
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ECONIS (ZBW) 7,836 RePEc 38 EconStor 17 USB Cologne (EcoSocSci) 6 BASE 3 Other ZBW resources 1
Showing 1 - 50 of 6,702
 
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Smog, not lights : tracking Bolivia's 2024-2026 recession from space
Hernani-Limarino, Werner; Eid, Ahmed - 2026
Nighttime lights are the standard satellite proxy for economic activity, but they fail to detect recessions. On a 2020-2024 panel of nine Bolivian departments, VIIRS lights match the sign of PIB growth 78 percent of the time during expansions but only 39 percent during contractions - worse than...
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Forecasting Kazakhstan's GDP based on a dynamic factor model with regularization
Akhmet, Alisher - 2026
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Expectations versus reality in Business formation
Dinlersoz, Emin Murat; Ma, Yueyuan - 2026
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Measuring economic outlook in the news
Beck, Elliot; Eckert, Franziska; Kühne, Linus; … - 2026
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015615555
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Austria's economy sees light at the end of the tunnel : economic outlook for 2025 to 2027
Ederer, Stefan; Schiman-Vukan, Stefan - 2026
Austria's economy is recovering over the projection period from a recession that, according to the revised National Accounts, proved comparably severe to Germany's. The rebound is driven by private consumption, while foreign trade in goods continues to contract for the time being. Residential...
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What drives business expectations? : a tale of demand and supply
Battistini, Niccolò; Neves, Pedro - 2026
This paper develops a novel empirical framework to analyse the drivers of business expectations in the euro area. Using harmonised data from the European Commission's business surveys for manufacturing, services, and construction, we build composite business expectations indices (BEI) for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015592767
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Outlier-robust evaluation of fixed-event macroeconomic survey expectations
Delis, Panagiotis; Kontogeorgos, Georgios - 2026
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Do anecdotes matter? : exploring the Beige Book through textual analysis from 1970 to 2025
Du, Shengwu; Haberkorn, Flora; Kitschelt, Isabel; Lee, … - 2026
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German economy on the upswing-global economy continues to grow moderately
Dany-Knedlik, Geraldine; Baldi, Guido; Brehl, Nina Maria; … - 2026
After three years of subdued economic activity, the German economy is on the road to recovery. While the Iran war and erratic U.S. trade policy are weighing on growth, their impact is only moderate. Although the U.S. Supreme Court has ruled that U.S. tariffs are unlawful, this does not change...
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Multivariate economic tail risk and scenario analysis using the survey of professional forecasters
Schick, Manuel; Opschoor, Anne - 2026
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015638609
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A widely applicable sampling method for spreading the survey burden in business surveys
Boonstra, Harm Jan; Smeets, Marc - 2026
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015640233
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The ifo business climate index for Germany : a vintage dataset
Wohlrabe, Klaus; Sauer, Stefan - 2026
The ifo Business Climate Index for Germany is one of the most widely used leading indicators for the German economy. This paper introduces a new vintage dataset that contains all originally published time series of the ifo Business Climate Index and its components since January 2004. The dataset...
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More than just a game? : soccer tournaments and firm sentiment
Hennrich, Jonas; Wohlrabe, Klaus - 2026
This paper provides the first systematic firm-level analysis of how major international football tournaments affect business sentiment. We combine 2.2 million responses from the ifo Business Survey with information on 17 FIFA World Cups and UEFA European Championships between 1991 and 2024 and...
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News-based inflation expectations : LLM-assisted measurement and forecasting
Tanisa Tawichsri; Suppawong Tuarob; Nuwat Nookhwun; … - 2026
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Forecasting recessions using machine learning on text data and mixed-frequency predictors
Ohta, Yusuke; Shintani, Mototsugu - 2026
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015637008
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Smooth and persistent forecasts of German GDP : balancing accuracy and stability
Heinisch, Katja; Van Norden, Simon; Wildi, Marc - 2026
Forecasts that minimize mean squared forecast error (MSE) often exhibit excessive volatility, limiting their practical applicability. We address this accuracy smoothness trade-off by introducing a Multivariate Smooth Sign Accuracy (M-SSA) framework, which extracts smoothed components from...
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Forecasting inflation : the sum of the cycles outperforms the whole
Verona, Fabio - 2026
Inflation dynamics reflect forces operating at different cycles, from short-lived shocks to longterm structural trends. We introduce the sum-of-the-cycles (SOC) method, which exploits this multifrequency structure of inflation for forecasting. SOC decomposes inflation into cyclical components,...
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Moments of cross-sectional stock market returns and the German business cycle
Döpke, Jörg; Müller, Karsten; Tegtmeier, Lars - 2023
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The Cyprus Stock Exchange as a leading indicator
Michail, Nektarios; Savva, Christos S. - 2023
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The Cyprus stock exchange as a leading indicator
Michail, Nektarios; Savva, Christos S. - 2022
Book / Working Paper
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Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey : survey methodology, performance and forecast accuracy
Cañas, Jesús; Kerr, Emily; Morales-Burnett, Diego - 2025
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Does economic uncertainty predict real activity in real time?
Keijsers, Bart; Dijk, Dick van - 2025
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Does economic uncertainty predict real activity in real-time?
Keijsers, Bart; Dijk, Dick van - 2022
Book / Working Paper
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Does Economic Uncertainty Predict Real Activity in Real-time?
Keijsers, Bart; Dijk, Dick van - 2022
Book / Working Paper
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Forecasting U.S. economic activity with a small information set
Cooper, Daniel; Olivei, Giovanni P.; Rhodenhiser, Hannah - 2025 - This version: June 2025
We provide a parsimonious setup for forecasting U.S. GDP growth and the unemployment rate based on a few fundamental drivers. This setup yields forecasts that are reasonably accurate compared with private-sector and Federal Reserve forecasts over the 1984-2019 and post-COVID-19 pandemic periods....
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Identifying useful indicators for nowcasting GDP in Sweden
Karlsson, Sune; Mazur, Stepan; Raftab, Mariya - 2025
This paper focuses on identifying useful indicators for nowcasting GDP in Sweden. We analyze 35 monthly indicators spanning the period from 1993 to 2023. Additionally, we evaluate the group-wise performance of these indicators. The analysis is conducted using mixed-data sampling (MIDAS) and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015207182
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BLS payroll revisions: forecasting recessions
Quinlan, Rory; Pinheiro, Roberto - 2025
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015618925
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Factors of predictive power for metal commodities
Papenfuß, Patric; Schischke, Amelie; Rathgeber, Andreas W. - 2025
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Reassessing the predictive power of the yield spread for recessions in the United States
Coe, Patrick J.; Vahey, Shaun P. - 2025
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015372747
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Tracking economic activity with alternative high-frequency data
Eckert, Florian; Kronenberg, Philipp; Mikosch, Heiner; … - 2025
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Tracking economic activity with alternative high-frequency data
Eckert, Florian; Kronenberg, Philipp; Mikosch, Heiner; … - 2020
Book / Working Paper
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New forecasting methods for an old problem : predicting 147 years of systemic financial crises
Plessis, Emile du; Fritsche, Ulrich - 2025
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New forecasting methods for an old problem : predicting 147 years of systemic financial crises
Plessis, Emile du; Fritsche, Ulrich - 2022
Book / Working Paper
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Forecasting Markov switching vector autoregressions : evidence from simulation and application
Cavicchioli, Maddalena - 2025
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015374001
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Predictor preselection for mixed-frequency dynamic factor models : a simulation study with an empirical application to GDP nowcasting
Franjic, Domenic; Schweikert, Karsten - 2025
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015374018
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Economic forecasting with German newspaper articles
Berger, Tino; Wintter, Simon - 2025
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015374058
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Step by step : a quarterly evaluation of EU Commission's GDP forecasts
Heinisch, Katja - 2025
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015374219
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Step by step - a quarterly evaluation of EU Commission's GDP forecasts
Heinisch, Katja - 2024
Book / Working Paper
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Fiscal consolidation hampered by sluggish GDP growth : economic outlook for 2025 and 2026
Ederer, Stefan; Schiman-Vukan, Stefan - 2025
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015211739
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Economic expectations remain subdued at the beginning of the year : results of the WIFO-Konjunkturtest quarterly survey of January 2025
Hölzl, Werner; Bierbaumer, Jürgen; Klien, Michael; … - 2025
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015330829
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Policy changes leaving marks on the economy
Dany-Knedlik, Geraldine; Baldi, Guido; Brehl, Nina Maria; … - 2025
The German economy is stuck in a period of stagnation: Following two years of consecutive slight declines in GDP, growth is not expected for 2025 either. Weak exports, rising unemployment worries, and the resulting reserved private consumption and economic policy uncertainty are slowing the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015338723
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Quantile VARs and macroeconomic risk forecasting
Surprenant, Stéphane - 2025 - Last updated: January 17, 2025
Recent rises in macroeconomic volatility have prompted the introduction of quantile vector autoregression (QVAR) models to forecast macroeconomic risk. This paper provides an extensive evaluation of the predictive performance of QVAR models in a pseudo-out-of-sample experiment spanning 112...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015187517
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Forecasting with the help of survey information
Brenna, Federica; Budrys, Žymantas - 2025
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015190477
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News shocks, consumer confidence, and business cycles
Hussain, Syed M.; Liaqat, Zara - 2025
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015361608
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Proxy datasets for measuring GDP in Uganda
Mugume, Adam; Isingoma, Milly Nalukwago; Musoke, Samuel … - 2025
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015417869
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Are revisions to state-level GDP data in the US well behaved?
Mitchell, James; Shiroff, Taylor - 2025
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015467256
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Are revisions to state-level GDP data in the US well behaved?
Mitchell, James; Shiroff, Taylor - 2025
Book / Working Paper
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Short-term forecasting of slovak GDP based on high-frequency data
Lőrincze, Péter - 2025
The paper compares two forecasts of Slovak GDP, the first with high-frequency data and the second without them. We utilize the last observation from the economic activity index acting as a short-term GDP forecast. We use data from 2000 to 2024 in weekly frequencies and have 27 variables related...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015418703
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Austria is in its third year of recession : economic outlook for 2025 and 2026
Scheiblecker, Marcus; Ederer, Stefan - 2025
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015418834
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Economic assessments remained cautious in spring : results of the WIFO-Konjunkturtest quarterly survey of April 2025
Hölzl, Werner; Bierbaumer, Jürgen; Klien, Michael; … - 2025
In April, sceptical economic assessments continued to prevail. By sector, the deterioration was particularly evident in services and retail trade. In manufacturing, economic assessments improved but remained at a low level. Compared with the previous quarter, uncertainty rose particularly in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015418901
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Tariff chaos overshadowing the global economy : fiscal package bolstering the German economy
Dany-Knedlik, Geraldine; Baldi, Guido; Brehl, Nina Maria; … - 2025
Despite a strong start to 2025, the German economy will experience middling growth for the time being before beginning a long-awaited upturn at the end of the year. DIW Berlin's forecast indicates growth of 0.3 percent for 2025 and of 1.7 percent for 2026; thus, DIW Berlin is increasing its forecast...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015420391
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Measuring economic sentiment from open-ended survey comments using large language models
Seiler, Pascal - 2025
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015474291
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Measuring economic sentiment from open-ended survey comments using large language models
Seiler, Pascal - 2025
Book / Working Paper
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Approximating fixed-horizon forecasts using fixed-event forecasts
Knüppel, Malte; Vladu, Andreea L. - 2025
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015463288
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Approximating fixed-horizon forecasts using fixed-event forecasts
Knüppel, Malte; Vladu, Andreea L. - 2016
Book / Working Paper
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Approximating Fixed-Horizon Forecasts Using Fixed-Event Forecasts
Knüppel, Malte - 2016
Book / Working Paper
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Real-time forecasting using mixed-frequency VARs with time-varying parameters
Heinrich, Markus; Reif, Magnus - 2025
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Real-time forecasting using mixed-frequency VARs with time-varying parameters
Heinrich, Markus; Reif, Magnus - 2020
Book / Working Paper
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Real-Time Forecasting Using Mixed-Frequency Vars with Time-Varying Parameters
Heinrich, Markus - 2020
Book / Working Paper
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Enhancing macroeconomic forecasts with uncertainty-informed intervals
Glocker, Christian; Kaniovski, Serguei - 2025
We propose a methodology for constructing confidence intervals for macroeconomic forecasts that directly incorporate quantitative measures of uncertainty – such as survey-based indicators, stock market volatility, and policy uncertainty. By allowing the width of confidence intervals to vary...
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Measuring business cycles using VARs
Fève, Patrick; Moura, Alban - 2025
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015466937
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Measuring business cycles using VARs
Fève, Patrick; Moura, Alban - 2025
Book / Working Paper
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Inconsistent survey histograms and point forecasts revisited
Clements, Michael P. - 2025
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015470622
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