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  • Search: subject_exact:"Leading indicator"
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Subject
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Leading indicator 6,392 Frühindikator 6,371 Prognoseverfahren 2,241 Forecasting model 2,235 Konjunktur 1,610 Deutschland 1,609 Germany 1,606 Business cycle 1,578 Wirtschaftsprognose 1,049 Economic forecast 1,040 Theorie 958 Theory 956 Wirtschaftsindikator 837 Economic indicator 828 USA 782 United States 776 Welt 658 World 657 Schätzung 585 Estimation 582 Zeitreihenanalyse 543 Time series analysis 540 EU-Staaten 532 EU countries 528 Macroeconomic performance 349 Wirtschaftslage 349 International business cycle 313 Internationale Konjunktur 313 Prognose 287 Wirtschaftswachstum 284 Economic growth 276 Eurozone 252 Euro area 247 Yield curve 233 Zinsstruktur 233 Österreich 231 Austria 230 Forecast 228 Geldpolitik 223 Monetary policy 217
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Online availability
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Free 1,789 Undetermined 660
Type of publication
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Article 3,363 Book / Working Paper 2,848 Journal 241
Type of publication (narrower categories)
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Article in journal 3,115 Aufsatz in Zeitschrift 3,115 Graue Literatur 1,926 Non-commercial literature 1,926 Working Paper 1,182 Arbeitspapier 1,168 Aufsatz im Buch 304 Book section 304 Collection of articles of several authors 249 Sammelwerk 249 Country report 213 Länderbericht 213 Amtsdruckschrift 157 Government document 157 Statistik 150 Konferenzschrift 130 Conference proceedings 98 Statistics 97 Hochschulschrift 93 Thesis 80 Advisory report 76 Gutachten 76 No longer published / No longer aquired 69 Aufsatzsammlung 27 Bibliografie enthalten 23 Bibliography included 23 Market information 21 Marktinformation 21 Lehrbuch 17 Handbook 15 Handbuch 15 Textbook 15 Collection of articles written by one author 14 Forschungsbericht 14 Mehrbändiges Werk 14 Multi-volume publication 14 Sammlung 14 Conference paper 13 Konferenzbeitrag 13 Commentary 10
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Language
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English 4,092 German 1,940 French 124 Russian 48 Italian 40 Polish 37 Dutch 36 Spanish 34 Undetermined 28 Czech 20 Hungarian 18 Slovak 10 Slovenian 8 Swedish 8 Norwegian 6 Finnish 4 Croatian 4 Romanian 4 Lithuanian 3 Bulgarian 2 Estonian 2 Portuguese 2 Chinese 2 Kazakh 1 Macedonian 1 Serbian 1 Ukrainian 1
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Author
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Scheide, Joachim 130 Nierhaus, Wolfgang 98 Abberger, Klaus 94 Gern, Klaus-Jürgen 87 Nerb, Gernot 62 Meier, Carsten-Patrick 57 Marcellino, Massimiliano 56 Gürtler, Joachim 54 Marterbauer, Markus 50 Döpke, Jörg 48 Gluch, Erich 47 Wohlrabe, Klaus 45 Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens 44 Jannsen, Nils 44 Lahiri, Kajal 44 Zarnowitz, Victor 41 Dovern, Jonas 40 Kooths, Stefan 40 Carstensen, Kai 38 Kamps, Christophe 38 Siliverstovs, Boriss 38 Boss, Alfred 36 Groll, Dominik 36 Schumacher, Christian 35 Stangl, Anna 35 Städtler, Arno 35 Walterskirchen, Ewald 35 Michelsen, Claus 31 Fritsche, Ulrich 30 Kuvalin, Dmitrij B. 30 Benner, Joachim 29 Cholodilin, Konstantin Arkadʹevič 28 Hinze, Jörg 28 Loose, Brigitte 28 Ferrara, Laurent 27 Lang, Cornelia 27 Weinert, Günter 27 Dreger, Christian 26 Lehmann, Robert 25 Diebold, Francis X. 24
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Institution
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Institut für Weltwirtschaft 99 National Bureau of Economic Research 48 Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose 41 Arbeitsgemeinschaft Deutscher Wirtschaftswissenschaftlicher Forschungsinstitute 34 Europäische Kommission / Generaldirektion Wirtschaft und Finanzen 34 Association of European Conjuncture Institutes 32 Ifo-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung 31 Österreichisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung 29 Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle 27 Konjunkturforschungsstelle <Zürich> 23 Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der Gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung 23 Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung 22 Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung 20 Arbeitskreis Konjunktur des IWH 19 Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys 18 University of Michigan / Department of Economics 18 Ifo Institut 15 Deutscher Industrie- und Handelskammertag 14 Hamburgisches Welt-Wirtschafts-Archiv 14 Institut für Makroökonomie und Konjunkturforschung 14 OECD 14 Institut für Höhere Studien 11 Niederlande / Centraal Planbureau 11 National Institute of Economic and Social Research 10 UBS AG 10 Observatoire Français des Conjonctures Economiques 9 PriceWaterhouseCoopers <London> 9 Credit Suisse 8 Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung / Arbeitskreis Konjunktur 8 Institut der Deutschen Wirtschaft <Köln> / Arbeitsgruppe Konjunktur 8 Institut der Deutschen Wirtschaft <Köln> / Forschungsgruppe Konjunktur 7 Institut national de la statistique et des études économiques <Frankreich> 7 Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung 7 Belgien / Bureau du Plan 6 Deutsche Bank <Frankfurt am Main> / Research 6 Elinkeinoelämän Tutkimuslaitos 6 Europäische Kommission 6 Institut für Makroökonomie und Konjunkturforschung / Arbeitskreis Konjunktur 6 Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle / Arbeitskreis Konjunktur Ostdeutschland 6 Urad za Makroekonomske Analize in Razvoj <Ljubljana> 6
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Published in...
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Ifo-Schnelldienst 376 Monatsberichte / WIFO, Österreichisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung 167 Wirtschaftsdienst : Zeitschrift für Wirtschaftspolitik 160 International journal of forecasting 145 Wirtschaft im Wandel 107 Kieler Diskussionsbeiträge 91 DIW-Wochenbericht : Wirtschaft, Politik, Wissenschaft 68 Ifo Dresden berichtet 58 Journal of forecasting 54 CESifo working papers 50 Weltkonjunktur und deutsche Konjunktur : im ... 47 NBER working paper series 46 Die Weltwirtschaft : Vierteljahresschrift des Instituts für Weltwirtschaft an der Universität Kiel 44 Working paper / National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. 40 Economic review 37 NBER Working Paper 37 Empirical economics : a journal of the Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna, Austria 33 Working paper series / European Central Bank 33 Applied economics letters 32 DIW weekly report : economy, politics, science : a policy bulletin from the German Institute for Economic Research 32 Studies on Russian economic development : the official journal of the Institute of Economic Forecasting, Russian Academy of Sciences 32 Business economics : the journal of the National Association for Business Economists 30 Discussion paper / Centre for Economic Policy Research 30 Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik 30 Journal of business cycle measurement and analysis : a joint publication of OECD and CIRET 30 Report / IMK, Institut für Makroökonomie und Konjunkturforschung 30 Economic modelling 29 Economics letters 29 Journal of business & economic statistics : JBES ; a publication of the American Statistical Association 29 Applied economics 28 KOF working papers 27 Journal of macroeconomics 26 Kiel Institute economic outlook 26 Ifo-Wirtschaftskonjunktur : Monatsberichte des Ifo-Instituts für Wirtschaftsforschung 25 Working paper 24 Weltkonjunktur und deutsche Konjunktur 23 ECB Working Paper 22 Discussion paper / 1 / Deutsche Bundesbank 21 European economy 20 Journal of money, credit and banking : JMCB 20
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Source
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ECONIS (ZBW) 6,390 RePEc 38 EconStor 15 USB Cologne (EcoSocSci) 6 BASE 3
Showing 1 - 50 of 6,452
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Algorithmic modelling of financial conditions for macro predictive purposes : pilot application to USA data
Qin, Duo; Van Huellen, Sophie; Wang, Qing Chao; … - In: Econometrics : open access journal 10 (2022) 2, pp. 1-22
Aggregate financial conditions indices (FCIs) are constructed to fulfil two aims: (i) The FCIs should resemble non-model-based composite indices in that their composition is adequately invariant for concatenation during regular updates; (ii) the concatenated FCIs should outperform financial...
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Quarterly GDP estimates for the German States : new data for business cycle analyses and long-run dynamics
Lehmann, Robert; Wikman, Ida - 2023
To date, only annual information on economic activity is published for the 16 German states. In this paper, we calculate quarterly regional GDP estimates for the period between 1995 to 2021, thereby improving the regional database for Germany. The new data set will regularly be updated when...
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Labour market expectations and unemployment in Europe
Blanchflower, David G.; Bryson, Alex - 2023
Unemployment is notoriously difficult to predict. In previous studies, once country and year fixed effects are added to panel estimates, few variables predict changes in unemployment rates. Using panel data for 29 European countries collected by the European Commission over 444 months between...
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DSGE model forecasting : rational expectations vs. adaptive learning
Warne, Anders - 2023
This paper compares within-sample and out-of-sample fit of a DSGE model with rational expectations to a model with adaptive learning. The Galí, Smets and Wouters model is the chosen laboratory using quarterly real-time euro area data vintages, covering 2001Q1-2019Q4. The adaptive learning model...
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Will the last be the first? : ranking German macroeconomic forecasters based on different criteria
Köhler, Tim; Döpke, Jörg - In: Empirical economics : a quarterly journal of the … 64 (2023) 2, pp. 797-832
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A leading indicator for employment using big data
Castellares, Renzo; Cornejo, Gerson - 2020
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Forecasting economic cycle with a structural equation model : evidence from Thailand
Jeerawadee Pumjaroen; Preecha Vichitthamaros; Yuthana … - In: International journal of economics and financial issues … 10 (2020) 3, pp. 47-57
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Forecasting industrial production in Germany : the predictive power of leading indicators
Schlösser, Alexander - 2020
We investigate the predictive power of several leading indicators in order to forecast industrial production in Germany. In addition, we compare their predictive performance with variables from two competing categories, namely macroeconomic and financial variables. The predictive power within...
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Firms' inflation expectations: new evidence from France
Savignac, Frédérique; Gautier, Erwan; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy - 2022
Using a new survey of firms' inflation expectations in France, we provide novel evidence about the measurement and formation of inflation expectations on the part of firms. First, French firms report inflation expectations with a smaller, but still positive, bias than households and display less...
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Real-time forecasts of economic growth
Sandu, Marcel Antonio; Viziniuc, Mădălin - 2022
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Do well managed firms make better forecasts?
Bloom, Nicholas; Kawakubo, Takafumi; Meng, Charlotte; … - 2022
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On the real-time predictive content of financial conditions indices for growth
Amburgey, Aaron; McCracken, Michael W. - 2022
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ifo DSGE model 2.0
Šauer, Radek - 2022
This documentation concisely describes the dynamic stochastic general-equilibrium model that the ifo Institute currently uses for simulations and business-cycle analysis. The model consists of three countries and contains a wide range of rigidities. The model is regularly estimated by quarterly...
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IW Berlin economic outlook : summer upswing to follow winter slump
Baldi, Guido; Berenberg-Gossler, Paul; Engerer, Hella; … - In: DIW weekly report : economy, politics, science : a … 12 (2022) 7/8, pp. 53-64
The Omicron wave of the coronavirus has impacted economies worldwide, resulting in a bleak winter. Although restrictions on economic and public life have been less severe than at the beginning of 2021 in many places-mainly due to the progress of vaccination campaigns-and there are prospects of...
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News media versus FRED-MD for macroeconomic forecasting
Ellingsen, Jon; Larsen, Vegard Høghaug; Thorsrud, Leif … - In: Journal of applied econometrics 37 (2022) 1, pp. 63-81
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Quarterly GDP estimates for the German states
Lehmann, Robert; Wikman, Ida - 2022
To date, only annual information on economic activity is published for the 16 German states. In this paper, we calculate quarterly regional GDP estimates for the period between 1995 to 2020, thereby improving the regional database in Germany. The new data set will regularly be updated when...
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Tracking the German business cycle
Berger, Tino; Ochsner, Christian - 2022
The German economy is an important economic driver in the Euro-area in terms of gross domestic product, labour force and international integration. We provide a state of the art estimate of the German output gap between 1995 and 2021 and present a nowcasting scheme that accurately predicts the...
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What were they thinking? : estimating the quarterly forecasts underlying annual growth projections
Blunier, Jason; Hepenstrick, Christian - 2022
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Nowcasting macroeconomic variables using high-frequency fiscal data
Ambriško, Róbert - 2022
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Tracking economic growth in real time during the pandemic : a rationale for a revision of €-coin
Aprigliano, Valentina; Emiliozzi, Simone; Lippi, Marco - 2022
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How well-behaved are revisions to quarterly fiscal data in the euro area?
Bańkowski, Krzysztof; Faria, Thomas; Schall, Robert - 2022
Since most macroeconomic data are revised after the initial release both researchers and policy-makers have no choice rather than recognising and understanding the revisions. This paper analyses revisions to the fiscal data in the euro area, also by contrasting them with the 'better-understood'...
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German forecasters' narratives : how informative are German business cycle forecast reports?
Müller, Karsten - In: Empirical economics : a quarterly journal of the … 62 (2022) 5, pp. 2373-2415
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The role of financial surveys for economic research and policy making in emerging markets
Gallardo, Sofía; Madeira, Carlos - 2022
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Local information and firm expectations about aggregates
Dovern, Jonas; Müller, Lena; Wohlrabe, Klaus - 2022
Using new survey data on quantitative growth expectations of firms in Germany, we show that firms resort to local information when forming expectations about aggregate growth. Firms extrapolate from the economic situation in their county, industry growth and their individual business situation....
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Recession forecasting with high-dimensional data
Nevasalmi, Lauri - In: Journal of forecasting 41 (2022) 4, pp. 752-764
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On the representativeness of the ifo business survey
Hiersemenzel, Magdolna; Sauer, Stefan; Wohlrabe, Klaus - 2022
The monthly ifo Business Survey is the basis for numerous economic indicators, such as the ifo Business Climate Index Germany. Moreover, the anonymized micro data can be used for a wide range of research projects. In order to obtain robust results, the panel of survey participants must be large...
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World Economic Outlook for 2022 and 2023
Nam, Chang-woon - In: CESifo forum : a quarterly journal on European issues 23 (2022) 3, pp. 50-51
The war in Ukraine slows the global recovery. This article briefly presents the IMF’s growth forecasts for 2022 and 2023. In addition to addressing the immediate challenges of the war and the pandemic, it also highlights the need for continued, focused longer-term economic policies,...
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Do recessions occur concurrently across countries? : a multinomial logistic approach
Poon, Aubrey; Zhu, Dan - 2022
We develop a novel multinomial logistic model to detect and forecast concurrent recessions across multi-countries. The key advantage of our proposed framework is that we can detect recessions across countries using the additional informational content from the cross-country panel feature of the...
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European economic forecast ; 2022, Summer
2022
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European economic forecast ; 2022, Spring
2022
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Unusual shocks in our usual models
Ferroni, Filippo; Fisher, Jonas D. M.; Melosi, Leonardo - 2022
We propose an event-study research design to identify the nature and propagation of large unusual shocks in DSGE models and apply it to study the macroeconomic effects of the Covid shock. The initial outbreak is represented as the onset of a new shock process where the shock loads on wedges...
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Pandemic-era uncertainty
Meyer, Brent; Mihaylov, Emil; Barrero, Jose Maria; … - In: Journal of risk and financial management : JRFM 15 (2022) 8, pp. 1-14
We examine several measures of uncertainty to make five points. First, equity market traders and executives at nonfinancial firms have shared similar assessments about one-year-ahead uncertainty since the pandemic struck. Both the one-year VIX and our survey-based measure of firm-level...
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Does economic uncertainty predict real activity in real-time?
Keijsers, Bart; Dijk, Dick van - 2022
We assess the predictive ability of 15 economic uncertainty measures in a real-time out-of-sample forecasting exercise for the quantiles of The Conference Board's coincident economic index and its components (industrial production, employment, personal income, and manufacturing and trade sales)....
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Electoral cycles in macroeconomic forecasts
Cipullo, Davide; Reslow, André - 2022
This paper documents the existence of electoral cycles in GDP growth forecasts released by governments. In a theoretical model of political selection, we show that governments release overly optimistic GDP growth forecasts ahead of elections to increase the reelection probability. The bias...
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Jahreswirtschaftsbericht ...
Deutschland / Bundesministerium für Wirtschaft und … - [2022]-: Berlin : Bundesministerium für Wirtschaft und … - 2022-
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European business cycle indicators ; 2nd quarter (2022)
2022
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Italy and fiscal rules : past performance and future prospects
Assalve, Davide; Collura, Cristina; Giachin Ricca, Elena; … - 2022
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Dynamic factor models : does the specification matter?
Miranda, Karen; Poncela, Pilar; Ruiz, Esther - In: SERIEs : Journal of the Spanish Economic Association 13 (2022) 1, pp. 397-428
Dynamic factor models (DFMs), which assume the existence of a small number of unobserved underlying factors common to a large number of variables, are very popular among empirical macroeconomists. Factors can be extracted using either nonparametric principal components or parametric Kalman...
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Forecasting national recessions of the United States with state-level climate risks : evidence from model averaging in Markov-switching models
Ҫepni, Oğuzhan; Christou, Christina; Gupta, Rangan - 2022
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Building daily economic sentiment indicators
Rey del Castillo, Pilar - 2022
The availability of copious amounts of data produced by the increasing datification of our society is nowadays deemed an opportunity to produce timely and convenient statistical information. This paper shows the building of economic sentiment indexes from the texts of the most read economic...
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Quantifying survey-based qualitative responses on capacity utilisation : an analysis for India
Samanta, G. P.; Bhowmick, Sayantika - 2022
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Country & sector risks handbook ... : major trends of the world economy : analysis and forecast for ... countries and ... sectors
Compagnie française d'assurance pour le commerce extérieur - [2022]-: [Boix-Colombes] : [Coface] - 2022-
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Macroeconomic forecasting in a multi-country context
Bai, Yu; Carriero, Andrea; Clark, Todd E.; Marcellino, … - 2022 - This version: January 2022
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Mis-specified forecasts and myopia in an estimated new Keynesian model
Hajdini, Ina - 2022
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Beyond the business climate : regular and supplementary questions in the ifo Business survey
Demmelhuber, Katrin; Sauer, Stefan; Wohlrabe, Klaus - 2022
In the monthly ifo Business Survey around 9,000 German companies answer questions about their current business situation, expectations and plans for the near future as well as on other business variables. This paper provides an overview of all regular questions (monthly, quarterly, bi-annually,...
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Monetary policy, inflation outlook, and recession probabilities
Ajello, Andrea; Benzoni, Luca; Schwinn, Makena; Timmer, … - 2022
Why does the short-term slope of the yield curve predict recessions? We explore the economic forces underlying Treasury yields' fluctuations and highlight the roles of a tight monetary policy stance and expectations of lower inflation in predicting downturns. While the monetary policy stance is...
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Utilización de noticias de prensa como indicador de confianza económica en tiempo real
Pilar Cruz N., María del; Peralta V., Hugo; Cova M., … - 2022
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Central bank information and private-sector expectations
Güntner, Jochen - In: Journal of forecasting 41 (2022) 7, pp. 1372-1385
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The Business Leaders' Pulse : an online business survey
Chernis, Tony; D'Souza, Chris; MacLean, Kevin; Reader, Tasha - 2022
The Business Leaders' Pulse is a new online survey conducted each month. It is designed to provide timely and flexible input into the Bank of Canada's monetary policy decision making while also creating a platform to analyze business conditions and uncertainty. Since May 2021, the Bank has been...
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Using stochastic hierarchical aggregation constraints to nowcast regional economic aggregates
Koop, Gary; McIntyre, Stuart; Mitchell, James; Poon, Aubrey - 2022
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