This study investigates whether fluctuations in the real exchange rate give rise to symmetric or asymmetric J-curve effects in manufacturing trade between Türkiye and Germany, thereby positioning the analysis within and contributing to the broader scholarly discourse on exchange rate-trade...

In this descriptive paper, we focus on the sectoral composition of trade balances and their evolution since the 1970s, through the aggregation of millions of data points for goods and services. We use a "tree" approach, from global to regional, and from regional to sectoral and finally country...

This paper investigates the implications of trade policy uncertainty (TPU) in the United States for current account balance (CAB) dynamics, given renewed interest in pursuing trade policy measures to address persistent current account deficits. We examine whether TPU, a distinct source of policy...

This paper assesses the vulnerability of Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) economies to external crises. It shows that while the average LAC economy has made significant strides to reduce vulnerability to crises to its historical minimum, there is still considerable room for improvement,...

External imbalances have returned to the policy agenda, partly because current account imbalances have widened for the first time since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) of the late 2000s. However, while China's large surplus was the main counterpart to the United States's deficit before the...

The paper explores the impact of inflation on the validity of the twin deficits hypothesis (TDH) in the Eurozone countries, focussing on how different inflation levels influence twin deficit existence (i.e., a positive relation between fiscal and current account deficit) and how inflation...

This paper explores how global economic and financial imbalances have evolved amid rising protectionism and geopolitical tensions. While globalisation and technological change have had a positive impact on global growth and poverty reduction, they have also led to increased inequality,...

This research uses linear correlation and time-series analysis to examine the evolution of the external debt accumulated in periods of current account deficits and reserve purchases. Statistical data of GIPS countries (Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain), Ireland, and the United States show that...

We develop a dynamic multi-country Ricardian trade model with aggregate uncertainty, where trade imbalances emerge as countries exchange goods and assets. We introduce a method for computing counterfactuals in this setting, which doesn't require specifying the stochastic process of shocks or...

This paper studies the drivers of the US real exchange rate (RER), with a particular focus on its comovement with net trade (NT) flows. We consider the entire spectrum of frequencies, as the low-frequency variation accounts for 62 and 64 percent of the unconditional variance of the RER and NT,...

The study examines the degree of current account deficit (CAD) sustainability and capital mobility for a panel of 97 countries over the period 1980-2020. To this end, the study adopts a novel interpretation of the Feldstein-Horioka coefficient in the context of CAD sustainability and examines...

We present new empirical evidence on the role of granularity in the current account (CA), using a unique and comprehensive firm-level dataset for Switzerland. We show that idiosyncratic shocks to large firms account for almost two thirds of the fluctuations in the headline CA and are the primary...

The current account (CA) balance indicates a country's savings-investment position; sustained deficits require foreign capital. To monitor Colombia's external vulnerability risk, we estimate a normative CA level using an unbalanced panel model based on long-run fundamental structural variables....

In this paper, we show that the existing models and descriptions of the transfer of capital between countries that are provided in international economics are inadequate because they fail to explain the causes of, or the consequences of, persistent trade imbalances and because the assumption...

Tariffs, a key instrument of trade policy, are often viewed as tools to correct trade imbalances or protect domestic industries. However, their effects on an economy extend beyond immediate price changes, triggering complex feedback loops that unfold over time. This study explores tariffs as a...

The aim of this study is to evaluate the macroeconomic performance of Slovakia in the period 1993-2023 and to determine the impact of various social, political, and economic events on the development of the country's macroeconomic performance. To this end, a macroeconomic performance index was...

This year’s report provides the external sector assessment of 30 of the world’s largest economies on the basis of their 2024 data. Global current account balances in 2024 widened significantly. Staff assessment suggests that excess current account balances account for about two-thirds of the...

In this paper, we present QMDE, an empirical quarterly stock-flow consistent (SFC) model of Denmark. It is categorized as a medium-sized model to strike a balance between complexity and economic intuition. This model provides a nuanced understanding of Denmark's economic structure, segmenting it...