Search Results - subject_exact:"Lotterie"

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Risk attitude and complex lotteries

Kim, Jeong Yeol; Castro, Luciano I. de; Galvao, Antonio … - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015615876

The macroeconomic impact of reducing gross gambling yield : an empirically-informed model

Simpson, Katherine; Szendrei, Tibor; Gu, Jingyi; Roy, Graeme - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015640057

The parlay puzzle : expected utility and multi-leg betting

Whelan, Karl - 2026

Multi-leg parlay bets have become hugely popular in the US despite loss rates on stakes that are four times higher than regular bets. This paper shows that even if bettors believe they have an edge, maximization of subjective expected utility requires placing separate bets when per-leg win...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015644689

Leveraging probability distortion to target prevention : a cardiovascular screening experiment in the Philippines

Baillon, Aurélien; Capuno, Joseph J.; Kraft, Aleli; … - 2026

We test whether a conditional cash lottery targets prevention on those doing too little because of inverse-S probability distortion that also causes overvaluation of a lottery. Consistent with theory, Filipinos perceiving their cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in a wide intermediate interval...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015644858

Replication report: on the robustness and provenance of the gambler's fallacy by Xiang, Dorst, and Gershman (2025)

Berg, Anthony van den; Doroc, Karlo; Fu, Changfa; … - 2026

Xiang et al. (2025) investigate whether the gambler's fallacy-the false belief that a random event is less likely to occur if it has occurred recently-is robust to using probabilistic (versus point) predictions and independently and identically distributed (versus non-IID) sequences. In five...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015650666

Opaque selling with endogenous product characteristics

Hoover, Darren - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015651525

Playing the birth lottery in Europe

Valentini, Annaelena; Brunori, Paolo; Ferreira, … - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015633034

SOEP-IS 2024 - ILOTTERY : variables from an innovative lottery experiment in 2016

2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015633172

Gambling for retirement : the economics of savings lotteries

Gars, Jared; Holz, Justin; Rodemeier, Matthias; Villa, … - 2026

Governments frequently use lottery-like incentives to encourage socially desirable behavior ("Pigouvian lotteries"). We study lotteries that encourage retirement savings in a nationwide field experiment with over 380,000 participants in Colombia's public pension system. Lotteries increase...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015635628

The inefficient markets hypothesis : a theory of casino capitalism

Hellwig, Christian - 2026

I develop a general equilibrium model of investment and equity markets in which departures from the Efficient Markets Hypothesis generate "Casino Capitalism": time-inconsistent, shorttermist firm decisions, firm-level over-investment coupled with inefficient liquidation of positiveNPV projects,...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015666633

Gambling with state budgets : legalized sports betting and lost lottery revenue

Coombs, Kyle; Madonia, Greg; Nencka, Peter; Smith, Austin C. - 2026

Legislators often justify legalizing controversial markets, such as sports betting, by citing the potential for new tax revenue to fund popular public programs. However, new revenue from sports betting may cannibalize existing revenue from state-run lotteries, undermining a key rationale for...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015666003

The effect of low-skill immigration restrictions on US firms and workers : evidence from a randomized lottery

Clemens, Michael A.; Lewis, Ethan - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015670469

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The Effect of Low-Skill Immigration Restrictions on Us Firms and Workers : Evidence from a Randomized Lottery

Clemens, Michael A.; Lewis, Ethan - 2022

Book / Working Paper

The Effect of Low-Skill Immigration Restrictions on US Firms and Workers : Evidence from a Randomized Lottery

Clemens, Michael A.; Lewis, Ethan - 2022

Book / Working Paper

The cost of conformity : How deviating from norms increases performance potential

Imbrogno, Jason P.; Parnell, John A.; Staggs, Tanner B.; … - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015665676

The impact of legalized sports betting on divorce

Muniz-Fernandez, Alvaro; Humphreys, Brad R.; Ruseski, … - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015673666

Sports betting, lotteries, and state revenues in the post-PASPA era

Nedved, Joseph; Nason, David; Hoffer, Adam J.; Ferreira … - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015673672

More than just "plugging leaks" : the effects of gambling and lottery winnings on Spaniards' financial and personal decisions

López Laborda, Julio; Vallés Giménez, Jaime; Zárate … - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015672789

Sports betting across borders : spatial spillovers, credit distress, and fiscal externalities

Goss, Jacob; Mangrum, Daniel - 2026 - Revised March 2026

Since the 2018 Murphy v. NCAA decision, 38 states have legalized mobile sports betting. We study effects on betting and consumer credit, emphasizing spatial spillovers across state lines. Using consumer spending data and an extended two-way fixed effects framework that separately identifies...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015614722

Timing and skewness of information revelation : evidence on information structures and compound lotteries

Diecidue, Enrico; Langer, Thomas; Nolte, Sven; … - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016061390

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Timing and Skewness of Information Revelation : Evidence on Information Structures and Compound Lotteries

Diecidue, Enrico; Langer, Thomas; Nolte, Sven; … - 2022

Book / Working Paper

Timing and Skewness of Information Revelation : Evidence on Information Structures and Compound Lotteries

Diecidue, Enrico; Langer, Thomas; Nolte, Sven; schneider, g - 2022

Book / Working Paper

Playing the market : lottery stock and bitcoin comovement

Hoang Lai Trung; Yang, Wenling - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016064508

Google search interest versus self-report surveys : examining predictors of gambling expenditure in Australia

Ilicic, Jasmina; Brennan, Stacey; Cullerton, Katherine - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016069957

Forecasting soccer matches with betting odds : a tale of two markets

Hegarty, Tadgh; Whelan, Karl - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015440677

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Forecasting soccer matches with betting odds : a tale of two markets

Hegarty, Tadgh; Whelan, Karl - 2023

Book / Working Paper

Forecasting soccer matches with betting odds : a tale of two markets

Hegarty, Tadgh; Whelan, Karl - 2023

Book / Working Paper

Round-robin tournaments in the lab : lottery contests vs. all-pay auctions

Lauber, Arne; March, Christoph; Sahm, Marco - 2025

We conduct a laboratory experiment to compare the fairness and intensity of round-robin tournaments with three symmetric players, a single prize, and two alternative match formats. Matches are either organized as lottery contests or all-pay auctions. Whereas we confirm the theoretical prediction...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015202740

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Round-Robin tournaments in the lab : lottery contests vs. all-pay auctions

Lauber, Arne; March, Christoph; Sahm, Marco - 2025

Book / Working Paper

The output cost of inheritance

Brülhart, Marius; Eyquem, Aurélien; Martínez, Isabel; … - 2025

We study how inheritance affects labor supply over the life cycle, and we quantify its aggregate impact. Tracking earnings histories around some 135,000 inheritances and 5,000 lottery wins, we exploit the quasi-random timing and size of these events to identify labor supply responses with high...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015548877

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The output cost of inheritance

Brülhart, Marius; Eyquem, Aurélien; Martínez, Isabel; … - 2025

Book / Working Paper

The output cost of inheritance

Brülhart, Marius; Eyquem, Aurélien; Martínez, Isabel; … - 2025

Book / Working Paper

How manipulable are prediction markets?

Rasooly, Itzhak; Rozzi, Roberto - 2025

In this paper, we conduct a large-scale field experiment to investigate the manipulability of prediction markets. The main experiment involves randomly shocking prices across 817 separate markets; we then collect hourly price data to examine whether the effects of these shocks persist over time....

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015372547

"Essential" migrants : evidence from the 2020 H-2B visa lottery

Mahajan, Parag - 2025

I study how access to foreign-born workers impacts firms and local economics in times of acute crisis. The 2020 H-2B visa lottery randomly gave some U.S. firms the chance to hire low-wage, migrant workers during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. Using administrative data across three...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015372670

Gambling-motivated attention and improved market efficiency

Khanthavit, Anya - 2025

Information is incorporated into stock prices when investors trade; consequently, prices respond only to the information investors pay attention to. Because market efficiency requires rapid information dissemination and fully informative prices, attention necessarily affects the level of market...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015373948

On estimates of insider trading in sports betting

Whelan, Karl - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015375060

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On estimates of insider trading in sports betting

Whelan, Karl - 2024

Book / Working Paper

On estimates of insider trading in sports betting

Whelan, Karl - 2024

Book / Working Paper

SOEP-IS 2023 - ILOTTERY : variables from an innovative lottery experiment in 2016

2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015375141

Non-transitive patterns in sports match outcomes : a profitable anomaly

Ours, Jan C. van - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015672508

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Non-transitive patterns in sports match outcomes : a profitable anomaly

Ours, Jan C. van - 2025

Book / Working Paper

Non-transitive patterns in sports match outcomes : a profitable anomaly

Ours, Jan C. van - 2025

Book / Working Paper

Einziehung von Gegenständen des rechtswidrigen Glücksspiels nach § 148c GewO : eine Untersuchung zu verfassungsrechtlichen sowie einfachgesetzlichen Grundlagen und behördlichen Gestaltungsmaßnahmen

Mitschke, Melanie - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015330292

Idiosyncratic volatility and the cross-section of abnormal returns in Pakistan : evidence from a country with religious bans on lotteries and substantive institutional investor participation

Khurram, Muhammad Usman; Ali, Fahad; Ülkü, Numan - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015330660

The gambler’s ruin with asymmetric payoffs

Whelan, Karl - 2025

The gambler's ruin is usually presented as a repeated game where the gambler can either win or lose one unit. We examine cases where the profits from winning gambles are multiple times the stake at risk, with the expected profit per gamble being either zero, positive or negative. For positive...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015330787

Stocks as lotteries? : an experimental test of expected utility vs behavioral models

Corgnet, Brice; Kpegli, Yao Thibaut; Magnani, Jacopo - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015337453

Lotto lotteries : decision making under uncertainty when payoffs are unknown

Schröder, David - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015190618

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Lotto lotteries - Decision making under uncertainty when payoffs are unknown

Schröder, David - 2020

Book / Working Paper

Impacts of city life on nutrition : evidence from resettlement lotteries in China

Leng, Ganxiao; Qiu, Huanguang; Filipski, Mateusz - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015358543

Gambling preferences and enterprises internationalization performance : evidence from China

Feng, Qianbin; Hu, Xiao; Ren, Keyu; Xu, Yanhui - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015327002

The disjunction effect does not violate the Law of Total Probability

Gelastopoulos, Alexandros; Le Mens, Gaël - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015329122

Anchoring bias in the NFL gambling market

Fodor, Andy; Patterson, Fernando M.; Shank, Corey A. - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015463470

On the river : adult gaming centres, liberty and harm

Lingwood, Oscar; Marlow, Maxwell - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015463668

The attraction of magnet schools : evidence from embedded lotteries in school assignment

Dur, Umut Mert; Hammond, Robert G.; Lenard, Matthew A.; … - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015466030

Racial disparities in soccer player share prices : evidence from an online gambling platform

Bajaj, Anuja; Jena, Farai; Reilly, Barry - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015470798

How Bitcoin's ups and downs are changing the way you bet

Bakó, Barna; Sándor, Máté Csaba - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015471427

Assessing the benefits of education in early childhood : evidence from a Pre-K lottery in Georgia

Woodyard, Henry; Sass, Tim Roger; Fazlul, Ishtiaque - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015472468

Betting on momentum in contests

Ötting, Marius; Deutscher, Christian; Singleton, Carl; … - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015472502

How does inside information affect sports betting odds?

Whelan, Karl - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015473956

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How does inside information affect sports betting odds?

Whelan, Karl - 2023

Book / Working Paper

How does inside information affect sports betting odds?

Whelan, Karl - 2023

Book / Working Paper

An exploratory study on supplier acceptance of and engagement in a national tax lottery designed to improve tax compliance

Schoeman, Anculien - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015446978

Household structure decisions and positive wealth shocks : a natural experiment from the Spanish Christmas lottery

Pérez, Levi; Muñiz, Álvaro - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015451239

How do cash windfalls affect entrepreneurship? : evidence from the Spanish christmas lottery

Bermejo, Vicente J.; Ferreira, Miguel A.; Wolfenzon, Daniel - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015451398

The role of parental circumstances and luck in shaping socioeconomic success : a simulation-based analysis of talent

Hebishima, Hana; Inage, Shin-ichi - 2025

This study investigates the interplay between parental circumstances, talent, and luck in shaping long-term socioeconomic success through an agent-based simulation model. Building on prior research on the influence of socioeconomic status (SES) and parental circumstances on educational outcomes,...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015433605

Makers and takers : the economics of the Kalshi prediction market

Bürgi, Constantin; Deng, Wanying; Whelan, Karl - 2025

Since 2021, Kalshi has operated as the only licensed prediction market in the United States. We show that Kalshi's contract prices are relatively accurate predictors of outcomes and their accuracy increases as markets come closer to closing. However, the prices also display a systematic...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015434529