The History of Economics Society was founded at a time when the History of Economic Thought was being expelled from the Economics post-graduate curriculum in many universities, and was one of the key institutions around which the sub-discipline successfully re-organised itself and continued to...

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the teaching of undergraduate macroeconomics. Design/methodology/approach To suggest a roadmap, based on a consumption function, to be used by instructors willing to teach the Lucas Critique subject. Findings Therefore, this paper proposes a...

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the teaching of undergraduate macroeconomics. Design/methodology/approach: To suggest a roadmap, based on a consumption function, to be used by instructors willing to teach the Lucas Critique subject. Findings: Therefore, this paper proposes...

This book presents the answers to the exercises in Macroeconomic Theory, Fluctuations, Inflation and Growth in Closed and Open Economies, 2nd Edition, by Fernando de Holanda Barbosa (Cham, Switzerland: Springer, 2024), hereafter referred as Macro Theory. Altogether, there are 170 exercises in...

Peter Howitt is best known for his contributions to growth theory, but his work in short- run economics, which began with his Ph.D thesis and still continues, is important and deserves attention. It lies firmly in the Keynesian macro-disequilibrium tradition of Clower and Leijonhufvud, and for a...

Evidence from monetary VARs for ten countries points towards an unfavorable trade-off between leaning against credit fluctuations and stabilizing real economic activity. Results are robust both across countries, and based on two alternative approaches, i.e. either (i) focusing on the impact of...

This article explores Robert E. Lucas's policy agenda and his engagement with the public debate between 1968 and 1987. It investigates how he interacted with the public debate by envisioning key principles of his macroeconomic theory and methodology, and how he promoted his policy agenda. An...

As one of the founding fathers of the New Classical school of thought, Robert E. Lucas has made several important contributions. As such, his thinking had an immense impact on what later became modern mainstream macroeconomics (New Neoclassical Synthesis). In the present chapter, the focus is...

Evidence from low-frequency regressions for 27 countries since the XVIII century suggests that the relationship between broad money growth and inflation has been mostly one-for-one, and largely invariant to changes in the monetary regime. There is little evidence that the relationship had been...

Since the XIX century, technological progress has allowed commercial banks to create ever greater amounts of broad money and credit starting from a unit of monetary base. Crucially, however, at the very low frequencies the relative amounts of the two aggregates created out of a unit of base...

We propose an observation-driven time-varying SVAR model where, in agreement with the Lucas Critique, structural shocks drive both the evolution of the macro variables and the dynamics of the VAR parameters. Contrary to existing approaches where parameters follow a stochastic process with random...

Sticky-price models with rational expectations fail to capture the inertia in U.S. inflation. Models with backward-looking expectations capture current inflation behavior, but are unlikely to fit other monetary regimes. This paper seeks to overcome these problems with a near-rational model of...

Much of the new theory of macro-economics that has been built upon micro-economic models of imperfect information leads to conclusions which are surprisingly close in spirit to Keynes' original analysis. This paper summarizes the macro-economic implications of information-based models of...

I present a model that provides a theoretical solution to the Lucas Puzzle using Financial Efficiency, which is a time-varying component of TFP. The model predicts that a financially underdeveloped economy is to benefit from financial integration through FDI capital inflow only if it experiences...

The model developed in Robert Lucas's influential "Expectations and the Neutrality of Money" has not been widely used for extensions or modifications of the original analysis, in part because of its difficulty of manipulation.The present paper describes a linearized version that--unlike other...

Old- style Keynesian models relied on sticky prices or wages to explain unemployment and to argue for demand-side macroeconomic policies. This approach relied increasingly on a Phillips-curve view of the world, and therefore lost considerable prestige with the events of the 1970s. The new...

This paper examines, in light of the Lucas Critique, the behavior of the Phillips curve and of the term structure of interest rates after October 1979. It starts with an informal account of the policy change and then discusses how we might expect these two relations to shift after such a change....

We present a framework for computing and evaluating linear projections of macro variables conditional on hypothetical paths of monetary policy. A modest policy intervention is a change in policy that does not significantly shift agents' beliefs about policy regime and does not generate...

We analyze the effects of regulatory interference in compensation contracts, focusing on recent mandatory deferral and clawback requirements restricting incentive compensation of material risk-takers in the financial sector. Moderate deferral requirements have a robustly positive effect on...

Lucas (1972) was a paper that permanently changed the course of macroeconomics, even though its "money supply surprise" model lost its central place in the area within a decade because of empirical difficulties. However, Lucas's novel methodology, based on clearing markets and rational...

Policies and explicit private incentives designed for self-regarding individuals sometimes are less effective or even counterproductive when they diminish altruism, ethical norms and other social preferences. Evidence from 51 experimental studies indicates that this crowding out effect is...

Under inflation targeting inflation exhibits negative serial correlation in the United Kingdom, and little or no persistence in Canada, Sweden and New Zealand, and estimates of the indexation parameter in hybrid New Keynesian Phillips curves are either equal to zero, or very low, in all...

We use a Bayesian time-varying parameters structural VAR with stochastic volatility for GDP deflator inflation, real GDP growth, a 3-month nominal rate, and the rate of growth of M4 to investigate the underlying causes of the Great Moderation in the United Kingdom. Our evidence points towards a...

We fit a Bayesian time-varying parameters structural VAR with stochastic volatility to the Federal Funds rate, GDP deflator inflation, real GDP growth, and the rate of growth of M2. We identify 4 shocks-monetary policy, demand non-policy, supply, and money demand-by imposing sign restrictions on...

The financial architecture prior to the recent financial crisis was a system of mobile collateral. Safe debt, whether government bonds or privately-produced bonds, i.e., asset-backed securities, could be traded, posted as collateral, and rehypothecated, moving to its highest value use. Since the...

This study investigated the relative effectiveness of trade and policy shocks on sectoral output growth in a small open Nigerian economy. It is a country-specific, time-series study that verifies whether there is a difference in the effect of sectoral output response to policy shocks in Nigeria....

This paper provides a look into what Lucas meant by the term 'analogue systems' and how he conceived making them useful. It is argued that any model can be regarded as an analogue system provided it has remarkable predictive success. The term is thus neutral in terms of usefulness. To be useful,...

This paper studies the marginal product of private capital (MPK) with new data and a new framework to obtain a better understanding of international capital allocations and the Lucas Paradox (LP). Our point of departure is three influential studies of MPK's and, based on the most recently...

This study seeks to examine the stability of the Phillips Curve in Nigeria, as well as to ascertain the applicability of the popular Lucas Critique to the Phillips Curve in Nigeria. Using quarterly data from 1990Q1 to 2018Q3, the model is estimated with robust OLS that accounts for possible...

This paper studies the marginal product of private capital (MPK) with new data and a new framework to obtain a better understanding of international capital allocations and the Lucas Paradox (LP). Our point of departure is three influential studies of MPK's and, based on the most recently...

We show that, in a general family of linearized structural macroeconomic models, knowledge of the empirically estimable causal effects of contemporaneous and news shocks to the prevailing policy rule is sufficient to construct counterfactuals under alternative policy rules. If the researcher is...

This book assesses major schools of thought in macroeconomic theory between the Great Depression and the Long Recession, focusing on their analysis of cycles, crises and macro-policy. It explores the road from the dominance of Keynesian ideas to those of New Classical Macroeconomics (NCM) toward...

Evidence from monetary VARs for ten countries points towards an unfavorable trade-off between leaning against credit fluctuations and stabilizing real economic activity. Results are robust both across countries, and based on two alternative approaches, i.e. either (i) focusing on the impact of...