Search Results - subject_exact:"Macroeconometrics"

The ESCB forecasting models : what are they and what are they good for? : Working Group on Forecasting (WGF) : report by the Expert Group on the Model-based Assessment of Projections (EGMAP)

2025

This report provides a comprehensive overview of the models and tools used for macroeconomic projections within the European System of Central Banks (ESCB). These include semi-structural models, dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models, time series models and specialised satellite...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015589513

ECB macroeconometric models for forecasting and policy analysis : development, current practices and prospective challenges

2024

This paper takes stock of the ECB's macroeconometric modelling strategy by focusing on the models and applications used in the Forecasting and Policy Modelling Division. We focus on the guiding principles underpinning the current portfolio of the main macroeconomic models and illustrate how they...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014507371

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ECB macroeconometric models for forecasting and policy analysis: Development, current practices and prospective challenges

2024

Book / Working Paper

KOOMA : a DSGE model of the Finnish economy

Koponen, Kristine; Niemeläinen, Julia; Elmgren, Peter; … - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015616841

Gabon : Technical Assistance for the Development of a Macroeconomic Model for Projection and Simulations - Scoping Mission

Bikai, Jacques - 2026

This technical assistance report documents the key phases of the scoping mission for the development of a macroeconomic model based on financial programming, conducted in Libreville from May 5 to 15, 2025, on behalf of the Ministry of Economy and Participations of Gabon. The mission undertook a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015612587

Algeria Macroeconomic Projection Model (AMPM)

Abderrahim, Mustapha - 2026

The paper describes QMPM, the Quarterly Projection Model for the Bank of Algeria that underpins the Bank’s Forecasting and Policy Analysis System. The model is designed to capture the key features of the economy, including the importance of the hydrocarbon sector, sizable fiscal policy...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015612618

Ukraine : Technical Assistance Report-Strengthening Macroeconomic Modeling in Support of Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS) at the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU)

2026

This Technical Assistance followed a request by the National Bank of Ukraine for a review of their existing Quarterly Projection Model (QPM) and Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS). Although the NBU had an established FPAS, which benefited from previous IMF TA, the existing model-based...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015612632

MTBE V2025 : new version of the quarterly model of the Banco deEespaña

Aguilar, Pablo; Ghirelli, Corinna; Hurtado, Samuel - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015589746

Macroeconomic effects of carbon-intensive energy price changes : a model comparison

Burgert, Matthias; Darracq Pariès, Matthieu; Durand, Luigi - 2026

This paper presents a novel model comparison to examine the challenges posed by changes in carbon-intensive energy prices for monetary policy. The employed environmental monetary models have a detailed multi-sector structure. The comparison assesses the effects of both a temporary and a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015606830

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Macroeconomic effects of carbon-intensive energy price changes : a model comparison

Burgert, Matthias; Darracq Pariès, Matthieu; Durand, Luigi - 2025

Book / Working Paper

Macroeconomic effects of carbon-intensive energy price changes : a model comparison

Burgert, Matthias; Darracq Pariès, Matthieu; Durand, Luigi - 2025

Book / Working Paper

The effects of oil revenue allocation between accumulation and current use on macroeconomic responses to external and internal shocks in a small oil-exporting economy

Mukhamediyev, Bulat; Khitakhunov, Azimzhan; … - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015620185

Impact assessment of fiscal policy on employment in Morocco : a computable general equilibrium model analysis

Bouijij, Soukayna; Maarouf, Abdelouahab - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015620791

A macroeconomic model of Ph.D. enrollment with income risk and non-pecuniary preferences

Hayama, Airi - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015639479

Modelling the dynamic effects of inequality

Cornforth, Ed; Szendrei, Tibor - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015640055

I(2) cointegration in macroeconometric modelling : tourism price and inflation dynamics

Gričar, Sergej; Bojnec, Štefan; Kivedal, Bjørnar Karlsen - 2026

This study enhances macroeconometric modelling by utilising an I(2) cointegration framework to analyse the dynamic link between tourism prices and inflation in Slovenia and the Eurozone. Using monthly data from 2000 to 2017, we estimate cointegrated VAR models that capture long-run equilibria,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015640468

Simulating the Economy-Energy-Environment (3E) system under policy scenarios : evidence from the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region

Jing, Munan; Zhao, Xinyu; Zhao, Pengda - 2026

The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region of China faces challenges in achieving sustainable development, necessitating a delicate balance between rapid economic growth, environmental protection, and efficient energy utilization. Against this background, this paper develops a System Dynamics (SD)...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015653851

Bounded rationality as limited optimization : stochastic gradient descent agents in macroeconomic models

Guerrón-Quintana, Pablo A. - 2026 - Version: March 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015665460

The models and analysis behind the Bank of Finland's forecasts for the Finnish economy

Sariola, Mikko; Viertola, Hannu - 2026

The Bank of Finland produces forecasts for the Finnish economy using advanced modelling tools. Central to this process is its Aino model, which is a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model that integrates various aspects of the Finnish economy. The forecasts support policy decisions...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015666638

Measuring the AI economy

Korinek, Anton - 2026 - Last updated: June 18, 2026

We construct a macroeconomic estimate of total AI production for the United States, combining inference and R&D/training activities and applying quality adjustments based on the evolution of API prices at fixed performance levels and the pace of algorithmic progress. We estimate that nominal AI...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015670702

Model-based calibration of the elasticity of substitution in energy under high flexibility

Baldauf, Thomas; Gils, Hans Christian; Schmugge, Jens; … - 2026

Macroeconomic models of the energy transition depend crucially on elasticity of substitution (EOS) parameters between dirty and clean energy inputs, which are, however, hard to calibrate for future energy systems. Thus, in this paper, we seek determining these values based on a numerical...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015671954

Simulating and forecasting regional carbon emissions peaks : a modified Markal-Macro model approach

Shi, Junyi; Pan, Qifang; Zhou, Qunxing; Han, Liangyu; … - 2025

China has committed to peaking its carbon emissions before 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality before 2060. Determining whether a CO2 emissions peak can be realistically achieved under the existing conditions of the economy and energy structure is an important issue for the regional governments...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015486022

Construction of a narrative instrument for government investment

Clemens, Marius; Michelsen, Claus; Rieth, Malte - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015207258

An estimation and decomposition of the government investment multiplier

Clemens, Marius; Michelsen, Claus; Rieth, Malte - 2025

We construct a narrative instrument for government investment from official records in Germany. Using structural vector autoregressions, we document a significant crowding-in of private investment and an output multiplier of roughly 2. Then, we match a New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015207271

Macroeconomic stabilization policy for a dynamic economy : variations on a model by Leitmann and Wan

Neck, Reinhard; Blueschke, Dmitri; Blueschke-Nikolaeva, … - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015549175

Measuring policy effects since the Introduction of quantitative and qualitative monetary easing (QQE) : an analysis using the macroeconomic model Q-JEM

Haba, Shunsuke; Izawa, Kimihiko; Kishaba, Yui; … - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015330623

Uncertainty in the formation of inflation expectations in Japan : an analysis using the macroeconomic model Q-JEM

Fukunaga, Ichiro; Kishaba, Yui; Shibata, Nao; Yoneyama, … - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015330643

Essays on dynamic macroeconomics : from structural parameter estimation to the evaluation of central bank policies

Castellanos Silván, Juan - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015334636

BOK-look: a semi-structural model for Korea's open economy and monetary policy analysis

Jeong, Seungryul; Kang, Seokil; Cho, Hyungbae; Yoon, Jinwoon - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015191521

Beyond one-size-fits-all : designing monetary policy for diverse models and frequencies

Dück, Alexander; Verona, Fabio - 2025

We offer a contribution to the analysis of optimal monetary policy. The standard approach to determine what policy rule a central bank should follow is to take a single structural model and minimize the unconditional volatilities of inflation and real activity. In this paper, we propose monetary...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015181886

Are we at a watershed? : an integrated assessment model for Italy

Distefano, Tiziano; Porcherot, Raphael; Rocchi, Benedetto; … - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015197014

A macro-model of the Northern Ireland economy

Bergin, Adele; Low, Hailey; Millard, Stephen; Verma, … - 2025

This paper describes the structure and estimation of a structural macro-econometric model of the Northern Ireland economy. We show how it can be used to assess the potential impact of economic shocks and policy changes. Specifically, we have done so by examining the effects of shocks to UK...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015183247

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A macro-model of the Northern Ireland economy

Bergin, Adele; Low, Hailey; Millard, Stephen; Verma, … - 2025

Book / Working Paper

Indirect inference for the identification of star variables in macroeconomic models

Minford, Patrick; Xu, Yongdeng - 2025

Star variables, such as potential output and the neutral real interest rate, are fundamental to economic policymaking but challenging to identify due to their latent nature. Buncic, Pagan, and Robinson (2023) highlight the difficulty of identifying star variables within short macroeconomic...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015329658

Upgrading the Czech National Bank's core forecasting model g3+

Brázdik, František; Musil, Karel; Pokorný, Tomáš; … - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015422406

Exploring the crime drop in European Union homicide rates using econometric modeling

Werve, Ilka Van de; Koopman, Siem Jan; Weerman, Frank M.; … - 2025

In this study, we employ a newly developed time series econometric approach to investigate the development in crime rates in various members states of the European Union (EU) between 1968 and 2019. We propose a panel data model with stochastically time-varying factors that also includes...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015463587

Macroeconomic model simulations suggest only minor impacts on the euro area from current US import tariffs

Ikonen, Pasi; Kurronen, Sanna; Rönkkö, Risto; Vilmi, Lauri - 2025

This brief presents impact assessments of increased tariffs based on simulations using the Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal (GIMF) macroeconomic model. The current increases in US import tariffs are shown to reduce aggregate output across all major economic regions. The most pronounced...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015464079

On model aggregation and forecast combination

Gospodinov, Nikolaj; Maasoumi, Esfandiar - 2025

Policy makers express their views and decisions via the lens of a particular model or theory. But since any model is a highly stylized representation of the unknowable object of interest, all these models are inherently misspecified, and the resulting ambiguity injects uncertainty in the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015464615

The ECB-multi country model : a semi-structural model for forecasting and policy analysis for the largest euro area countries

2025

This paper introduces the European Central Bank's Multi Country model (ECB-MC), a coherent macroeconomic framework designed to support economic forecasting and policy analysis within the Eurosystem. The ECB-MC captures the economic dynamics of the five major economies in the euro area - Germany,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015465500

A new proposal for forecasting inflation in the eurozone : global model

Angelopoulos, Georgios; Bragoudakis, Zacharias; … - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015472832

Can wage changes solve the labour crisis in the National Health Service?

Zhou, Xingzuo; Skordis, Jolene; Yi, Junjian; Li, Yiang; … - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015448583

Modeling exchange rate, inflation, and interest rate in a small open economy : a data-based approach to estimating a New Keynesian model with rational expectations

Hammersland, Roger; Kolsrud, Dag - 2025

Building on a New Keynesian rational expectations framework, we develop a structural empirical model that jointly determines the real exchange rate, inflation, and the nominal interest rate in a small open economy. Employing a full-information system design and estimation approach that avoids...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015450570

A Quarterly Projection Model for Tonga

Ouliaris, Sam - 2025

This paper customizes to the Tongan economy a macroeconomic model for medium-term quarterly projections of key macro variables (QPM): output, inflation, interest rate, and exchange rate. The model is calibrated to embody the specific attributes of the Tongan economy such as the persistence of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015452154

A high-dimensional GDP-at-risk and Inflation-at-risk for the euro area

Santi, Matteo - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015406500

Scaling and forecasting in a data-driven agent-based model : applications to the Italian macroeconomy

Di Domenico, Jacopo; Catalano, Michele; Riccetti, Luca - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015438397

Energy prices in the Bank of Italy macroeconometric model

Cova, Pietro; Fantino, Davide; Rodano, Lisa - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015461908

Assessing digitalization and the economy : a dynamic recursive CGE modelling approach

Okorie, David Iheke; Adedeji, Adeniran; Ifionu, Chinedu - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015444474

Analysis of a log-linear model for forecasting electricity demand based on economic growth in Colombia

Grimaldo Guerrero, John William; Rivera-Alvarado, Juan; … - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015564287

Econometric modelling of the impact of metrology on the economy in Poland

Doszyń, Mariusz; Batóg, Barbara; Majda, Paweł; … - 2025

Research background: Studying the impact of metrology on the economy is a complicated matter. This is due to the specific nature of both metrology and the economy. There is no established method for determining the impact of metrology on the economy. Purpose: The paper attempts to build an...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015492486

Fiscal and monetary policy transmission shocks

Banegas Rivero, Roger Alejandro; Núñez Ramírez, … - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015609796

GDP Nowcasting Performance of Traditional Econometric Models vs Machine-Learning Algorithms : Simulation and Case Studies

Akepanidtaworn, Klakow - 2025

Are Machine Learning (ML) algorithms superior to traditional econometric models for GDP nowcasting in a time series setting? Based on our evaluation of all models from both classes ever used in nowcasting across simulation and six country cases, traditional econometric models tend to outperform...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015612800

Sign Restrictions with a New-Keynesian Macro Model : Results From a “Quasi-Agnostic” Identification Procedure

Impavido, Gregorio - 2025

This paper proposes a “quasi-agnostic” sign restriction procedure to identify structural shocks in frequentist structural vector autoregression (SVAR) models. It argues that low acceptance rates, inherent to agnostic sign restriction procedures, are not necessarily an indication of model...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015613185

Monetary Policy Effectiveness in Kazakhstan : Results With a Small Macro Model

Impavido, Gregorio - 2025

This paper assesses the effectiveness of monetary policy in Kazakhstan using a small macro model and identifies alternative plausible economic structures consistent with priors on the sign of responses of macro variables to structural shocks. Monetary policy effectiveness has increased over time

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015613281

Evaluating hypothetical carbon pricing for Saudi Arabia using a macroeconometric modeling framework

Hasanov, Fakhri J.; Aliyeva, Heyran; Almozaini, Majed S.; … - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015592603