In this paper, we introduce a new Bayesian approach to explain some market anomalies during financial crises and subsequent recovery. We assume that the earnings shock of an asset follows a random walk model with and without drift to incorporate the impact of financial crises. We further assume...

The global Great Recession has sparked renewed interest in the relationships between financial conditions and real activity. This paper considers the Swiss experience, studying the impact of credit market conditions and housing prices on real activity over the last three decades through the lens...